7 ms·

I really don't understand the doom and gloom wrt next year. What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas. In Germa

I really don't understand the doom and gloom wrt next year. What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas. In Germany, consumers are using 25% less gas even if you account for the weather. So with increased supply from Netherlands and Norway, even a limited amount of LNG will probably be enough to fill the storage again and compensate the missing Russian gas (which accounted for about 40% of the German gas supply. We, too, have not switched on the gas based heating yet. Instead, we are using a mix of wood and infrared electrical heaters to keep the rooms at a bearable (albeit not overly comfortable) 19 degrees celsius.

behringer 4y ago
I imagine you'd be using gas if you were paid to use it. Sadly market prices in the consumers favor seems to rarely make it to actual consumers.
- Denvercoder9 4y ago
  At least in the Netherlands you can get a energy contract with dynamic pricing, where you pay the actual market price (plus tax) at time of use. When energy prices go negative, you'll also get paid. However, this is a knife that cuts both ways: if the energy market prices rise sharply, you'll also immediately have to pay higher prices and don't benefit from the contracting ahead-of-time and averaging that regular energy companies do. I've spoken to people with such a contract whose energy bills went up by >100x this year, compared to last year.
  - behringer 4y ago
    Seems incredibly risky to take without any storage tanks!
aschearer 4y ago
The doom and gloom makes more sense when considering who benefits from pushing that narrative.
landoftheice 4y ago
If by consumer you mean only residential households then yes I agree. But if you enjoy consuming the products of or enjoy the benefits from the many wonders of German industry and manufacturing then underestimate no more.
arbuge 4y ago
> We, too, have not switched on the gas based heating yet. Instead, we are using a mix of wood and infrared electrical heaters In the event that your electric power is derived from gas, you've shifted the burden elsewhere and actually increased overall gas consumption, since using gas to warm your home directly would be more efficient.
- xapata 4y ago
  Not if the electric heaters aren't producing the same amount of heat. The comment suggested they've reduced heat consumption.
  - bo0tzz 4y ago
    Producing that amount of heat with gas would still be better than using electricity.
    - vanilla_nut 4y ago
      Depends on the generation method. If OP's using solar panels, it's a net positive. If their power is largely generated by nuclear or hydro, also a net positive. If it's generated by fossil fuels, agreed.
    - mrob 4y ago
      Infrared heaters are just resistive heaters with reflectors to redirect the radiation to where it's needed. You can aim one at yourself while you're working to remain comfortable even when the rest of the room is cold. This can sometimes be cheaper than running a heat pump to heat the whole room.
    - tesseract 4y ago
      In practice, electrical heating is is often spot heating in one room or even aimed directly at a person - a niche that isn't really served by indoor gas-fueled heating appliances.
    - hedora 4y ago
      If they were heating the same area, then they'd have probably replaced their furnace. Europeans have been buying record numbers of air to air heat pumps this year. Even with transmission and conversion losses, their coefficient of power is high enough to use less natural gas than directly burning it would.
asdajksah2123 4y ago
> What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas I don't think it was evident that individuals and businesses would be willing to make some of these changes they have. For example, German companies are planning on shutting down factories for the winter. Cities are planning on ending night lighting. In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It may still turn cold, so Europe isn't out of the woods yet. Finally, the increase in the LNG supply was achieved incredibly fast. If someone had predicted Europe would have the LNG supply they do today at the beginning of the war they would have been dismissed as a utopist.
- nemo44x 4y ago
- michpoch 4y ago
  > In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It's Autumn. Winter starts on the 21st Dec. October in most of the Europe is not that much of a heating season, November will make us start digging into the gas we prepared. It's way too early for early to judge how easy it'll be.
  - blablabla123 4y ago
    That's true but I think the normal reaction is when it feels cold to turn up the heater and not waste a thought about getting wool blankets to sleep for instance. Also I never used indoor thermometers until very recently.
  - dingaling 4y ago
    > Winter starts on the 21st Dec. 21 December is Midwinter Solstice... By orbital mechanics, winter starts around 10 November.
    - AlmostAnyone 4y ago
      Nope. This year, astronomical winter begins on 21 December 2022 and ends on 20 March 2023. Meteorological winter begins on 1 December. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/winter/when-does-winter-start https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/sea...
jl6 4y ago
I think you’re basically right, but just noting that winter hasn’t started yet and climate change has blessed Europe with an unseasonably warm October.
draw_down 4y ago
throwaway4aday 4y ago
> a bearable (albeit not overly comfortable) 19 degrees celsius Interesting to see what temp other people keep their homes at. Our normal indoor temp is 19 and I sometimes find that too warm.
- kube-system 4y ago
  I like mine at 23-24 in the winter, although the 'default' in the US is usually 20-22
- dom96 4y ago
  Temperature isn't the full story, what you really want is the combination of temperature and humidity, i.e. the heat index.
  - thaumasiotes 4y ago
    Temperature pretty much is the full story indoors. If you live in an area with 80%+ humidity outdoors, you make sure that isn't true indoors.
- thaumasiotes 4y ago
  I would generally want 21 or 22.
daniel-cussen 4y ago

behringer 4y ago

I imagine you'd be using gas if you were paid to use it. Sadly market prices in the consumers favor seems to rarely make it to actual consumers.

Denvercoder9 4y ago
At least in the Netherlands you can get a energy contract with dynamic pricing, where you pay the actual market price (plus tax) at time of use. When energy prices go negative, you'll also get paid. However, this is a knife that cuts both ways: if the energy market prices rise sharply, you'll also immediately have to pay higher prices and don't benefit from the contracting ahead-of-time and averaging that regular energy companies do. I've spoken to people with such a contract whose energy bills went up by >100x this year, compared to last year.
- behringer 4y ago
  Seems incredibly risky to take without any storage tanks!

aschearer 4y ago

The doom and gloom makes more sense when considering who benefits from pushing that narrative.

landoftheice 4y ago

If by consumer you mean only residential households then yes I agree. But if you enjoy consuming the products of or enjoy the benefits from the many wonders of German industry and manufacturing then underestimate no more.

arbuge 4y ago

> We, too, have not switched on the gas based heating yet. Instead, we are using a mix of wood and infrared electrical heaters In the event that your electric power is derived from gas, you've shifted the burden elsewhere and actually increased overall gas consumption, since using gas to warm your home directly would be more efficient.

xapata 4y ago
Not if the electric heaters aren't producing the same amount of heat. The comment suggested they've reduced heat consumption.
- bo0tzz 4y ago
  Producing that amount of heat with gas would still be better than using electricity.
  - vanilla_nut 4y ago
    Depends on the generation method. If OP's using solar panels, it's a net positive. If their power is largely generated by nuclear or hydro, also a net positive. If it's generated by fossil fuels, agreed.
  - mrob 4y ago
    Infrared heaters are just resistive heaters with reflectors to redirect the radiation to where it's needed. You can aim one at yourself while you're working to remain comfortable even when the rest of the room is cold. This can sometimes be cheaper than running a heat pump to heat the whole room.
  - tesseract 4y ago
    In practice, electrical heating is is often spot heating in one room or even aimed directly at a person - a niche that isn't really served by indoor gas-fueled heating appliances.
  - hedora 4y ago
    If they were heating the same area, then they'd have probably replaced their furnace. Europeans have been buying record numbers of air to air heat pumps this year. Even with transmission and conversion losses, their coefficient of power is high enough to use less natural gas than directly burning it would.

asdajksah2123 4y ago

> What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas I don't think it was evident that individuals and businesses would be willing to make some of these changes they have. For example, German companies are planning on shutting down factories for the winter. Cities are planning on ending night lighting. In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It may still turn cold, so Europe isn't out of the woods yet. Finally, the increase in the LNG supply was achieved incredibly fast. If someone had predicted Europe would have the LNG supply they do today at the beginning of the war they would have been dismissed as a utopist.

nemo44x 4y ago
michpoch 4y ago
> In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It's Autumn. Winter starts on the 21st Dec. October in most of the Europe is not that much of a heating season, November will make us start digging into the gas we prepared. It's way too early for early to judge how easy it'll be.
- blablabla123 4y ago
  That's true but I think the normal reaction is when it feels cold to turn up the heater and not waste a thought about getting wool blankets to sleep for instance. Also I never used indoor thermometers until very recently.
- dingaling 4y ago
  > Winter starts on the 21st Dec. 21 December is Midwinter Solstice... By orbital mechanics, winter starts around 10 November.
  - AlmostAnyone 4y ago
    Nope. This year, astronomical winter begins on 21 December 2022 and ends on 20 March 2023. Meteorological winter begins on 1 December. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/winter/when-does-winter-start https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/sea...

jl6 4y ago

I think you’re basically right, but just noting that winter hasn’t started yet and climate change has blessed Europe with an unseasonably warm October.

draw_down 4y ago

throwaway4aday 4y ago

> a bearable (albeit not overly comfortable) 19 degrees celsius Interesting to see what temp other people keep their homes at. Our normal indoor temp is 19 and I sometimes find that too warm.

kube-system 4y ago
I like mine at 23-24 in the winter, although the 'default' in the US is usually 20-22
dom96 4y ago
Temperature isn't the full story, what you really want is the combination of temperature and humidity, i.e. the heat index.
- thaumasiotes 4y ago
  Temperature pretty much is the full story indoors. If you live in an area with 80%+ humidity outdoors, you make sure that isn't true indoors.
thaumasiotes 4y ago
I would generally want 21 or 22.

daniel-cussen 4y ago