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Manufacturing, refining, and AI improvements are going to reduce the price of batteries by another 90%

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Manufacturing, refining, and AI improvements are going to reduce the price of batteries by another 90% This is a pipe dream. Battery demand will be astronomical for decades to come. That means ramping up supply and prioritising deployment via price signals.
- gitfan86 4y ago
  Your logic is backwards, it is the demand for batteries that will make them cheap. Just look at the actual data https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > it is the demand for batteries that will make them cheap This isn’t how supply and demand work. Demand can induce scale efficiencies in production, which lowers costs. That’s what’s happening in your link, which tracks through 2018. In 2019, electric car sales shares rose globally and non-linearly [1]. We persist on that path. As a result, battery costs are spiking [2][3]. [1] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ad8fb04c-4f75-42fc-973a-6e54c8a4449a/GlobalElectricVehicleOutlook2022.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ad8fb04c-4f75-42fc-... page 15 [2] https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-average-of-132-kwh-but-rising-commodity-prices-start-to-bite/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-a...
    - gitfan86 4y ago
      It is exactly how supply and demand works, lithium refiners are making huge profits, which causes more investment in refining capabilities which unlocks larger economies of scale. If you don't understand this please just circle back to this thread in 5 years, and I can show you what actually happened.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
HPsquared 4y ago
How would things look if batteries were 90% cheaper?
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  Still too expensive by at least 10x.
  - gitfan86 4y ago
    No, batteries are already replacing peaker plants at TODAY'S costs https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/12/battery-storage-systems-30-cheaper-than-rival-gas-peaker-plants-for-firming-renewables/&ved=2ahUKEwiFiMOS2oD7AhXaVTABHeugD-AQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0HCtiB_Dw7RQHm_S_WvKtm https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/12/battery-storage-syste...
    - pclmulqdq 4y ago
      Replacing the most expensive form of power plant (and mind you, only the most expensive ones out of that class) at a quantity much lower than is needed to actually replace them, with serious supply constraints. Batteries today are replacing peaker plants that run on things like refined gasoline, which are extremely expensive to run. Battery + renewable is still not anywhere near cost competitive with base load plants, which is the honest comparison to make.
      - gitfan86 4y ago
        That is incorrect, "The International Energy Agency recently predicted that solar power would become “the cheapest source of electricity in history,” and a report by Carbon Tracker found that 90 percent of the global population lives in places where new renewable power would be cheaper than new dirty power. " https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/climate-change-warming-world.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/clim...
        4y ago

> Manufacturing, refining, and AI improvements are going to reduce the price of batteries by another 90% This is a pipe dream. Battery demand will be astronomical for decades to come. That means ramping up supply and prioritising deployment via price signals.

gitfan86 4y ago
Your logic is backwards, it is the demand for batteries that will make them cheap. Just look at the actual data https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > it is the demand for batteries that will make them cheap This isn’t how supply and demand work. Demand can induce scale efficiencies in production, which lowers costs. That’s what’s happening in your link, which tracks through 2018. In 2019, electric car sales shares rose globally and non-linearly [1]. We persist on that path. As a result, battery costs are spiking [2][3]. [1] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ad8fb04c-4f75-42fc-973a-6e54c8a4449a/GlobalElectricVehicleOutlook2022.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ad8fb04c-4f75-42fc-... page 15 [2] https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-average-of-132-kwh-but-rising-commodity-prices-start-to-bite/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-a...
  - gitfan86 4y ago
    It is exactly how supply and demand works, lithium refiners are making huge profits, which causes more investment in refining capabilities which unlocks larger economies of scale. If you don't understand this please just circle back to this thread in 5 years, and I can show you what actually happened.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]

HPsquared 4y ago

How would things look if batteries were 90% cheaper?

pclmulqdq 4y ago
Still too expensive by at least 10x.
- gitfan86 4y ago
  No, batteries are already replacing peaker plants at TODAY'S costs https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/12/battery-storage-systems-30-cheaper-than-rival-gas-peaker-plants-for-firming-renewables/&ved=2ahUKEwiFiMOS2oD7AhXaVTABHeugD-AQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0HCtiB_Dw7RQHm_S_WvKtm https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/12/battery-storage-syste...
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    Replacing the most expensive form of power plant (and mind you, only the most expensive ones out of that class) at a quantity much lower than is needed to actually replace them, with serious supply constraints. Batteries today are replacing peaker plants that run on things like refined gasoline, which are extremely expensive to run. Battery + renewable is still not anywhere near cost competitive with base load plants, which is the honest comparison to make.
    - gitfan86 4y ago
      That is incorrect, "The International Energy Agency recently predicted that solar power would become “the cheapest source of electricity in history,” and a report by Carbon Tracker found that 90 percent of the global population lives in places where new renewable power would be cheaper than new dirty power. " https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/climate-change-warming-world.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/clim...
      - 4y ago