3 ms·

> The second biggest missed opportunity is battery swap. It isn't missed. It's happening. The time wasn't right for it before. Gasoline cars had the same sequ

> The second biggest missed opportunity is battery swap. It isn't missed. It's happening. The time wasn't right for it before. Gasoline cars had the same sequence of events. Early adopters bought cans of gasoline from their local general store and stored it in their stables (now a garage). That's where we are now with predominantly home charging. Eventually there were gas pumps at general stores ( = public chargers as we have them now), and later specialized service stations (battery swap stations). The same incentives that led us to large specialized service stations are there for EVs.

ggm 4y ago
Measured in decades, I could agree. I'd call the last decade loss of pace, in that regard. To me, that's a lost opportunity: to build out for what we probably need. The countercase depends on breakthrough technology towards stable, reliable, long lived rapid recharge batteries. For small devices like scooters battery swap already works at scale and my hope was for the taxi, taxi truck and city runabout case we'd already be building infrastructure for it. Breakthroughs aren't impossible, or really that uncommon. They typically come with an IPR outcome so more delay at scale or more cost. Plugs tend to get standardised, so battery swap drives systems design towards unit size battery rigs, and plug compatibility.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Yeah, my unit of analysis is the decade, sorry. Been reading Vaclav Smil too much (Energy in Nature and Society; Grand Transitions). There was a news item on the BBC recently about battery swap being used by taxi firms in "second tier" Chinese cities (so, only 5M - 15M inhabitants). That's how it starts: large fleet operators who want their vehicles earning revenue for as long as possible; then smaller fleet operators; then manufacturers sell to the public ("never worry about battery failure", with suitable horror stories like "the Tesla owner up for $20K just out of warranty". True or not).

ggm 4y ago

Measured in decades, I could agree. I'd call the last decade loss of pace, in that regard. To me, that's a lost opportunity: to build out for what we probably need. The countercase depends on breakthrough technology towards stable, reliable, long lived rapid recharge batteries. For small devices like scooters battery swap already works at scale and my hope was for the taxi, taxi truck and city runabout case we'd already be building infrastructure for it. Breakthroughs aren't impossible, or really that uncommon. They typically come with an IPR outcome so more delay at scale or more cost. Plugs tend to get standardised, so battery swap drives systems design towards unit size battery rigs, and plug compatibility.

tuatoru 4y ago
Yeah, my unit of analysis is the decade, sorry. Been reading Vaclav Smil too much (Energy in Nature and Society; Grand Transitions). There was a news item on the BBC recently about battery swap being used by taxi firms in "second tier" Chinese cities (so, only 5M - 15M inhabitants). That's how it starts: large fleet operators who want their vehicles earning revenue for as long as possible; then smaller fleet operators; then manufacturers sell to the public ("never worry about battery failure", with suitable horror stories like "the Tesla owner up for $20K just out of warranty". True or not).