I've always found the numbers people propose for the probability of life arising to be absurdly self assured. We do not know the probability of life arising. We

I've always found the numbers people propose for the probability of life arising to be absurdly self assured. We do not know the probability of life arising. We do not know the probability of developing intelligent life. We don't even know if life originated here. If you ask me for my gut feel I'd say that life arises with near certainty in a range of suitable conditions. But that is beside the point - don't get annoyed with others for making assumptions and then in the next breath make equally strident assumptions.