11 ms·

That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relo

That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relocated western media/think tankers previously based in mainland, who can all attest that TW military in both aquisitions and training is still an utter shitshow. Perhaps deliberately so, because TW's best defense is fighting to the last American. And ultimately TW doesn't have to be invaded successfully, it can be blockaded permenantly (and trivially) to deny both war material from going in or chips from going out. @hef19898 > potential to start a shooting war Escalating to shooting war is expected, but the point is a comprehensive blockade by PRC is feasible worst case contingency plan that can be done without any complicated hardware. Glide naval mines and MLRS can be launched from mainland in quantities that US+co simply lack capacity to circumvent to thoroughly lockdown TW ports/coasts and airstrips indefinitely. @LAC-Tech >yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua Listen harder? State media like Xinhua or CCTV7 (military) shows PRC accidents all the time. CCTV7 interviews also frequently shit talks about PRC military deficiencies, but it's dressed up as we've strived hard to improved substandard X to modern standards etc, and we still need to improve on areas we're lacking.

hef19898 4y ago
Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.
LAC-Tech 4y ago
Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.
Beltalowda 4y ago
> yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?
- jameshush 4y ago
  I believe OP was being sarcastic but for got to add a `/s` or `</sarcasam>` :)
- dirtyid 4y ago
  I primarily keep up to date with PLA, but tangentially that means plenty of RU info. There has been years of reporting and comparison between RU vs PRC modernization process, MIC development, acquisitions, training etc. RU one of the few countries PLA cross trains with, and the stories coming out for years weren't flattering. For reference, there was analysis years ago guestimating much countries spend on training per soldier per year (not adjusted for PPP), IIRC something like RU ~20K, UKR ~40K, NATO (avg) ~60K, PRC ~90K, USA ~200K. Even sadder for when you include hours on expensive platforms, i.e. PRC pilots get as much cockpit hours as US (sometimes more), PRC carrier ops exceeding RU sortie rate on Soviet designed hulls. Bluntly, even on paper, RU military was massively underfunded and their poverty modernization efforts wasn't likely to field competent military for large campaign, ergo starting with a flabbergastingly small special operation that was difficult to sustain after turning into large scale war. Without full mobilization, with how much they committed relative to UKR, they're performing about on par with expectations, especially against flood of western platforms. Also general consensus between RU and PRC military watchers is RU boasts about top end capability but rarely delivers vs PRC quiet about top end capability but over delivers (see handful of Su57s vs 150+ J20s) despite both first flight ~10 years ago.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Just how good Chinese military capabilities, training and systems are, has to be seen (preferably we never find out so). I am not aware of any Chinese forces being involved in actual conflicts since Korea.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      No one has experience with modern peer war on high end platforms. IMO tech+doctorine sufficiently unknow that training + resources better proxy than fighting wars with 3rd world insurgents. Fact is US is using F35s for J20 agressor squadron vs F18s for SU57. Meanwhile USN reluctantly admit PRC antiship tests hit moving targets and host of dramatic US modernization efforts suggest PRC capabilites are real and commiserate with PRCs science+industrial base. But as for how well prepared TW is relative to PRC, that's more or less known. There isn't 4d chess behind ROCAFs current dismal state and overall profound unseriousness at adopting porcupine concept that's causing Pentagon consternation. But yes, not needing to find out is best.
ceejayoz 4y ago
> That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies... This was Russia's exact hope in Ukraine.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  RU's hope was their network of saboteurs would smooth low effort special operation invasion =/= spies keep tabs on military preparation pre invasion. Status of UKR war materials was well know. As was US training UKR troops who demonstrated willingness fight and had opportunity to gain experience in active Donbas campaign. TW meaningfully upgrading military capabilities would be even more transparent, without spies PRC still has lot more ELINT and survelliance satellites covering island 1/150th the size of UKR with even more limited areas that could be used for training / preparing. At the most basic level TW will need to visibly pour a lot of concrete to build up infra. Will saboteurs factor in a potential PRC invasion? Sure, but it won't be alternative to rationalizing a cheap a cross-strait campaign that can't be half-assed unlike a jaunt across paved roads on a land border by confused soldiers who thought they were on a training exercise. And that TW can't be easily supplied. PRC isn't gambling on TW or US being pushovers.

hef19898 4y ago

Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.

LAC-Tech 4y ago

Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.

Beltalowda 4y ago

> yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?

jameshush 4y ago
I believe OP was being sarcastic but for got to add a `/s` or `</sarcasam>` :)
dirtyid 4y ago
I primarily keep up to date with PLA, but tangentially that means plenty of RU info. There has been years of reporting and comparison between RU vs PRC modernization process, MIC development, acquisitions, training etc. RU one of the few countries PLA cross trains with, and the stories coming out for years weren't flattering. For reference, there was analysis years ago guestimating much countries spend on training per soldier per year (not adjusted for PPP), IIRC something like RU ~20K, UKR ~40K, NATO (avg) ~60K, PRC ~90K, USA ~200K. Even sadder for when you include hours on expensive platforms, i.e. PRC pilots get as much cockpit hours as US (sometimes more), PRC carrier ops exceeding RU sortie rate on Soviet designed hulls. Bluntly, even on paper, RU military was massively underfunded and their poverty modernization efforts wasn't likely to field competent military for large campaign, ergo starting with a flabbergastingly small special operation that was difficult to sustain after turning into large scale war. Without full mobilization, with how much they committed relative to UKR, they're performing about on par with expectations, especially against flood of western platforms. Also general consensus between RU and PRC military watchers is RU boasts about top end capability but rarely delivers vs PRC quiet about top end capability but over delivers (see handful of Su57s vs 150+ J20s) despite both first flight ~10 years ago.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Just how good Chinese military capabilities, training and systems are, has to be seen (preferably we never find out so). I am not aware of any Chinese forces being involved in actual conflicts since Korea.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    No one has experience with modern peer war on high end platforms. IMO tech+doctorine sufficiently unknow that training + resources better proxy than fighting wars with 3rd world insurgents. Fact is US is using F35s for J20 agressor squadron vs F18s for SU57. Meanwhile USN reluctantly admit PRC antiship tests hit moving targets and host of dramatic US modernization efforts suggest PRC capabilites are real and commiserate with PRCs science+industrial base. But as for how well prepared TW is relative to PRC, that's more or less known. There isn't 4d chess behind ROCAFs current dismal state and overall profound unseriousness at adopting porcupine concept that's causing Pentagon consternation. But yes, not needing to find out is best.

ceejayoz 4y ago

> That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies... This was Russia's exact hope in Ukraine.

dirtyid 4y ago
RU's hope was their network of saboteurs would smooth low effort special operation invasion =/= spies keep tabs on military preparation pre invasion. Status of UKR war materials was well know. As was US training UKR troops who demonstrated willingness fight and had opportunity to gain experience in active Donbas campaign. TW meaningfully upgrading military capabilities would be even more transparent, without spies PRC still has lot more ELINT and survelliance satellites covering island 1/150th the size of UKR with even more limited areas that could be used for training / preparing. At the most basic level TW will need to visibly pour a lot of concrete to build up infra. Will saboteurs factor in a potential PRC invasion? Sure, but it won't be alternative to rationalizing a cheap a cross-strait campaign that can't be half-assed unlike a jaunt across paved roads on a land border by confused soldiers who thought they were on a training exercise. And that TW can't be easily supplied. PRC isn't gambling on TW or US being pushovers.