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Going out on a limb: Taiwan is preparing, with a lot of covert and not so covert, support from the US and other allies with stakes in the region for a potantial

by hef19898 4y ago

Going out on a limb: Taiwan is preparing, with a lot of covert and not so covert, support from the US and other allies with stakes in the region for a potantial war. That involves weapon deliveries, training and what not. It is clear from where the imvasion will come, no way China can hide the build up in material, people and shipping prior to an invasion. And that invasion is over once enough tranport vessels fail to cross the Taiwan straight. Something made easier having years upon years to build ordonance at the shore lines to just do that. So, the initial invasion might just fail, replacement material will come over the Pacific and from Japan, global trade will basically cease to exist. On top of that you have the fallout from a military failure in China itself. In short, it'll be a mess of epic proportions and Taiwan will most likely not be invaded successfully.

dirtyid 4y ago
That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relocated western media/think tankers previously based in mainland, who can all attest that TW military in both aquisitions and training is still an utter shitshow. Perhaps deliberately so, because TW's best defense is fighting to the last American. And ultimately TW doesn't have to be invaded successfully, it can be blockaded permenantly (and trivially) to deny both war material from going in or chips from going out. @hef19898 > potential to start a shooting war Escalating to shooting war is expected, but the point is a comprehensive blockade by PRC is feasible worst case contingency plan that can be done without any complicated hardware. Glide naval mines and MLRS can be launched from mainland in quantities that US+co simply lack capacity to circumvent to thoroughly lockdown TW ports/coasts and airstrips indefinitely. @LAC-Tech >yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua Listen harder? State media like Xinhua or CCTV7 (military) shows PRC accidents all the time. CCTV7 interviews also frequently shit talks about PRC military deficiencies, but it's dressed up as we've strived hard to improved substandard X to modern standards etc, and we still need to improve on areas we're lacking.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.
- LAC-Tech 4y ago
  Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.
- Beltalowda 4y ago
  > yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?
  - jameshush 4y ago
    I believe OP was being sarcastic but for got to add a `/s` or `</sarcasam>` :)
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    I primarily keep up to date with PLA, but tangentially that means plenty of RU info. There has been years of reporting and comparison between RU vs PRC modernization process, MIC development, acquisitions, training etc. RU one of the few countries PLA cross trains with, and the stories coming out for years weren't flattering. For reference, there was analysis years ago guestimating much countries spend on training per soldier per year (not adjusted for PPP), IIRC something like RU ~20K, UKR ~40K, NATO (avg) ~60K, PRC ~90K, USA ~200K. Even sadder for when you include hours on expensive platforms, i.e. PRC pilots get as much cockpit hours as US (sometimes more), PRC carrier ops exceeding RU sortie rate on Soviet designed hulls. Bluntly, even on paper, RU military was massively underfunded and their poverty modernization efforts wasn't likely to field competent military for large campaign, ergo starting with a flabbergastingly small special operation that was difficult to sustain after turning into large scale war. Without full mobilization, with how much they committed relative to UKR, they're performing about on par with expectations, especially against flood of western platforms. Also general consensus between RU and PRC military watchers is RU boasts about top end capability but rarely delivers vs PRC quiet about top end capability but over delivers (see handful of Su57s vs 150+ J20s) despite both first flight ~10 years ago.
skirmish 4y ago
Much more likely plan: sea and air blockade, starve them until they make significant concessions. US will not get involved, not a direct act of war. Wait for a more amenable government to get elected, who may be just willing to discuss some special administrative status (see Musk's proposal).
- leereeves 4y ago
  No one would trust Chinese promises of a "special administrative status" after they failed to honor their commitment to Hong Kong.

dirtyid 4y ago

That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relocated western media/think tankers previously based in mainland, who can all attest that TW military in both aquisitions and training is still an utter shitshow. Perhaps deliberately so, because TW's best defense is fighting to the last American. And ultimately TW doesn't have to be invaded successfully, it can be blockaded permenantly (and trivially) to deny both war material from going in or chips from going out. @hef19898 > potential to start a shooting war Escalating to shooting war is expected, but the point is a comprehensive blockade by PRC is feasible worst case contingency plan that can be done without any complicated hardware. Glide naval mines and MLRS can be launched from mainland in quantities that US+co simply lack capacity to circumvent to thoroughly lockdown TW ports/coasts and airstrips indefinitely. @LAC-Tech >yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua Listen harder? State media like Xinhua or CCTV7 (military) shows PRC accidents all the time. CCTV7 interviews also frequently shit talks about PRC military deficiencies, but it's dressed up as we've strived hard to improved substandard X to modern standards etc, and we still need to improve on areas we're lacking.

hef19898 4y ago
Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.
LAC-Tech 4y ago
Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.
Beltalowda 4y ago
> yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?
- jameshush 4y ago
  I believe OP was being sarcastic but for got to add a `/s` or `</sarcasam>` :)
- dirtyid 4y ago
  I primarily keep up to date with PLA, but tangentially that means plenty of RU info. There has been years of reporting and comparison between RU vs PRC modernization process, MIC development, acquisitions, training etc. RU one of the few countries PLA cross trains with, and the stories coming out for years weren't flattering. For reference, there was analysis years ago guestimating much countries spend on training per soldier per year (not adjusted for PPP), IIRC something like RU ~20K, UKR ~40K, NATO (avg) ~60K, PRC ~90K, USA ~200K. Even sadder for when you include hours on expensive platforms, i.e. PRC pilots get as much cockpit hours as US (sometimes more), PRC carrier ops exceeding RU sortie rate on Soviet designed hulls. Bluntly, even on paper, RU military was massively underfunded and their poverty modernization efforts wasn't likely to field competent military for large campaign, ergo starting with a flabbergastingly small special operation that was difficult to sustain after turning into large scale war. Without full mobilization, with how much they committed relative to UKR, they're performing about on par with expectations, especially against flood of western platforms. Also general consensus between RU and PRC military watchers is RU boasts about top end capability but rarely delivers vs PRC quiet about top end capability but over delivers (see handful of Su57s vs 150+ J20s) despite both first flight ~10 years ago.

skirmish 4y ago

Much more likely plan: sea and air blockade, starve them until they make significant concessions. US will not get involved, not a direct act of war. Wait for a more amenable government to get elected, who may be just willing to discuss some special administrative status (see Musk's proposal).

leereeves 4y ago
No one would trust Chinese promises of a "special administrative status" after they failed to honor their commitment to Hong Kong.