5 ms·

How did you think things would go?

hef19898 4y ago
Going out on a limb: Taiwan is preparing, with a lot of covert and not so covert, support from the US and other allies with stakes in the region for a potantial war. That involves weapon deliveries, training and what not. It is clear from where the imvasion will come, no way China can hide the build up in material, people and shipping prior to an invasion. And that invasion is over once enough tranport vessels fail to cross the Taiwan straight. Something made easier having years upon years to build ordonance at the shore lines to just do that. So, the initial invasion might just fail, replacement material will come over the Pacific and from Japan, global trade will basically cease to exist. On top of that you have the fallout from a military failure in China itself. In short, it'll be a mess of epic proportions and Taiwan will most likely not be invaded successfully.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relocated western media/think tankers previously based in mainland, who can all attest that TW military in both aquisitions and training is still an utter shitshow. Perhaps deliberately so, because TW's best defense is fighting to the last American. And ultimately TW doesn't have to be invaded successfully, it can be blockaded permenantly (and trivially) to deny both war material from going in or chips from going out. @hef19898 > potential to start a shooting war Escalating to shooting war is expected, but the point is a comprehensive blockade by PRC is feasible worst case contingency plan that can be done without any complicated hardware. Glide naval mines and MLRS can be launched from mainland in quantities that US+co simply lack capacity to circumvent to thoroughly lockdown TW ports/coasts and airstrips indefinitely. @LAC-Tech >yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua Listen harder? State media like Xinhua or CCTV7 (military) shows PRC accidents all the time. CCTV7 interviews also frequently shit talks about PRC military deficiencies, but it's dressed up as we've strived hard to improved substandard X to modern standards etc, and we still need to improve on areas we're lacking.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.
  - LAC-Tech 4y ago
    Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.
  - Beltalowda 4y ago
    > yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?
    - jameshush 4y ago
      I believe OP was being sarcastic but for got to add a `/s` or `</sarcasam>` :)
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      I primarily keep up to date with PLA, but tangentially that means plenty of RU info. There has been years of reporting and comparison between RU vs PRC modernization process, MIC development, acquisitions, training etc. RU one of the few countries PLA cross trains with, and the stories coming out for years weren't flattering. For reference, there was analysis years ago guestimating much countries spend on training per soldier per year (not adjusted for PPP), IIRC something like RU ~20K, UKR ~40K, NATO (avg) ~60K, PRC ~90K, USA ~200K. Even sadder for when you include hours on expensive platforms, i.e. PRC pilots get as much cockpit hours as US (sometimes more), PRC carrier ops exceeding RU sortie rate on Soviet designed hulls. Bluntly, even on paper, RU military was massively underfunded and their poverty modernization efforts wasn't likely to field competent military for large campaign, ergo starting with a flabbergastingly small special operation that was difficult to sustain after turning into large scale war. Without full mobilization, with how much they committed relative to UKR, they're performing about on par with expectations, especially against flood of western platforms. Also general consensus between RU and PRC military watchers is RU boasts about top end capability but rarely delivers vs PRC quiet about top end capability but over delivers (see handful of Su57s vs 150+ J20s) despite both first flight ~10 years ago.
- skirmish 4y ago
  Much more likely plan: sea and air blockade, starve them until they make significant concessions. US will not get involved, not a direct act of war. Wait for a more amenable government to get elected, who may be just willing to discuss some special administrative status (see Musk's proposal).
  - leereeves 4y ago
    No one would trust Chinese promises of a "special administrative status" after they failed to honor their commitment to Hong Kong.
gonzo41 4y ago
Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. China needs to do about a millions things very competently and quickly to take Taiwan. The activities involved are things that would be hard for most western militaries today, even with all their money and skill. Here's a list of difficult things for china to do: 1. It's got to stage it's troops in a way that's real but maintains the element of surprise against an actor with US Intel backing it up. Even if it's just 1 guy from the NRO with a satellite phone and a laptop. The edge for Taiwan will be massive. 2. It's got to be able to cross 100km of open ocean with about 10-20 thousand troops as a first wave that can be dropped off rapidly to fight and survive on it's own. 3. Then those same ships will need to return and onboard more and more waves of troops that will need to be landed until they can safely establish maritime operations. In land warfare gaining air superiority is a first major goal. This is one of the reasons the Russians have gone so badly in Ukraine. For China, they will need to be able to own the sea and provide safety for their own ships as a highest priority. 4. The fighting on the beaches, will turn into fighting in the cities, and then fighting in the hills. Each one of these is a real challenge on it's own. It took the US military years to get good in Iraq. 5. Whilst China has lots of cash, and lots of men, and lots of tanks etc. The will power to fight may be an issue. For the Taiwanese soldiers, fighting and dying may mean independence for their family and nation. For the Chinese soldiers, fighting and dying probably just means they die. Its kind of a pointless activity for the soldier on the ground who just needed a job when they signed up for the PLA.
- hef19898 4y ago
  It took the allies in WW2 almost two years to make 1 through 3 happen. Operation sea lion, the Nazi invasion of the UK, was canceled for failing at 3 after the battle of Britain.
- yucky 4y ago
  >Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. Why would China use tactics and weaponry from 80 years ago though?
midoridensha 4y ago
I don't know about the parent, but I was a teenager back in the 90s, and back then when the wall fell and the USSR collapsed, we thought all the ugliness of the 20th century, two world wars and a cold war, were all behind us and that we could look forward to lifetimes of relative peace, perhaps with some relatively small conflicts here and there (such as the Gulf War). It turns out the 90s was basically western civilization's peak.
shashurup 4y ago
I'm afraid that as soon as China invades TSMC and some other tasty companies evacuate to US to never return. Then both Koreas and Japan are involved to end with a horrible horrible mess :(

hef19898 4y ago

Going out on a limb: Taiwan is preparing, with a lot of covert and not so covert, support from the US and other allies with stakes in the region for a potantial war. That involves weapon deliveries, training and what not. It is clear from where the imvasion will come, no way China can hide the build up in material, people and shipping prior to an invasion. And that invasion is over once enough tranport vessels fail to cross the Taiwan straight. Something made easier having years upon years to build ordonance at the shore lines to just do that. So, the initial invasion might just fail, replacement material will come over the Pacific and from Japan, global trade will basically cease to exist. On top of that you have the fallout from a military failure in China itself. In short, it'll be a mess of epic proportions and Taiwan will most likely not be invaded successfully.

dirtyid 4y ago
That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relocated western media/think tankers previously based in mainland, who can all attest that TW military in both aquisitions and training is still an utter shitshow. Perhaps deliberately so, because TW's best defense is fighting to the last American. And ultimately TW doesn't have to be invaded successfully, it can be blockaded permenantly (and trivially) to deny both war material from going in or chips from going out. @hef19898 > potential to start a shooting war Escalating to shooting war is expected, but the point is a comprehensive blockade by PRC is feasible worst case contingency plan that can be done without any complicated hardware. Glide naval mines and MLRS can be launched from mainland in quantities that US+co simply lack capacity to circumvent to thoroughly lockdown TW ports/coasts and airstrips indefinitely. @LAC-Tech >yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua Listen harder? State media like Xinhua or CCTV7 (military) shows PRC accidents all the time. CCTV7 interviews also frequently shit talks about PRC military deficiencies, but it's dressed up as we've strived hard to improved substandard X to modern standards etc, and we still need to improve on areas we're lacking.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.
- LAC-Tech 4y ago
  Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.
- Beltalowda 4y ago
  > yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?
  - jameshush 4y ago
    I believe OP was being sarcastic but for got to add a `/s` or `</sarcasam>` :)
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    I primarily keep up to date with PLA, but tangentially that means plenty of RU info. There has been years of reporting and comparison between RU vs PRC modernization process, MIC development, acquisitions, training etc. RU one of the few countries PLA cross trains with, and the stories coming out for years weren't flattering. For reference, there was analysis years ago guestimating much countries spend on training per soldier per year (not adjusted for PPP), IIRC something like RU ~20K, UKR ~40K, NATO (avg) ~60K, PRC ~90K, USA ~200K. Even sadder for when you include hours on expensive platforms, i.e. PRC pilots get as much cockpit hours as US (sometimes more), PRC carrier ops exceeding RU sortie rate on Soviet designed hulls. Bluntly, even on paper, RU military was massively underfunded and their poverty modernization efforts wasn't likely to field competent military for large campaign, ergo starting with a flabbergastingly small special operation that was difficult to sustain after turning into large scale war. Without full mobilization, with how much they committed relative to UKR, they're performing about on par with expectations, especially against flood of western platforms. Also general consensus between RU and PRC military watchers is RU boasts about top end capability but rarely delivers vs PRC quiet about top end capability but over delivers (see handful of Su57s vs 150+ J20s) despite both first flight ~10 years ago.
skirmish 4y ago
Much more likely plan: sea and air blockade, starve them until they make significant concessions. US will not get involved, not a direct act of war. Wait for a more amenable government to get elected, who may be just willing to discuss some special administrative status (see Musk's proposal).
- leereeves 4y ago
  No one would trust Chinese promises of a "special administrative status" after they failed to honor their commitment to Hong Kong.

gonzo41 4y ago

Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. China needs to do about a millions things very competently and quickly to take Taiwan. The activities involved are things that would be hard for most western militaries today, even with all their money and skill. Here's a list of difficult things for china to do: 1. It's got to stage it's troops in a way that's real but maintains the element of surprise against an actor with US Intel backing it up. Even if it's just 1 guy from the NRO with a satellite phone and a laptop. The edge for Taiwan will be massive. 2. It's got to be able to cross 100km of open ocean with about 10-20 thousand troops as a first wave that can be dropped off rapidly to fight and survive on it's own. 3. Then those same ships will need to return and onboard more and more waves of troops that will need to be landed until they can safely establish maritime operations. In land warfare gaining air superiority is a first major goal. This is one of the reasons the Russians have gone so badly in Ukraine. For China, they will need to be able to own the sea and provide safety for their own ships as a highest priority. 4. The fighting on the beaches, will turn into fighting in the cities, and then fighting in the hills. Each one of these is a real challenge on it's own. It took the US military years to get good in Iraq. 5. Whilst China has lots of cash, and lots of men, and lots of tanks etc. The will power to fight may be an issue. For the Taiwanese soldiers, fighting and dying may mean independence for their family and nation. For the Chinese soldiers, fighting and dying probably just means they die. Its kind of a pointless activity for the soldier on the ground who just needed a job when they signed up for the PLA.

hef19898 4y ago
It took the allies in WW2 almost two years to make 1 through 3 happen. Operation sea lion, the Nazi invasion of the UK, was canceled for failing at 3 after the battle of Britain.
yucky 4y ago
>Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. Why would China use tactics and weaponry from 80 years ago though?

midoridensha 4y ago

I don't know about the parent, but I was a teenager back in the 90s, and back then when the wall fell and the USSR collapsed, we thought all the ugliness of the 20th century, two world wars and a cold war, were all behind us and that we could look forward to lifetimes of relative peace, perhaps with some relatively small conflicts here and there (such as the Gulf War). It turns out the 90s was basically western civilization's peak.

shashurup 4y ago

I'm afraid that as soon as China invades TSMC and some other tasty companies evacuate to US to never return. Then both Koreas and Japan are involved to end with a horrible horrible mess :(