4 ms·

Thats another problem we can throw money at until it is resolved.

lotsofpulp 4y ago
I will have to disagree. There are some aspects of life that are not purchase-able, at least not on a timescale that can be attributed to a single leadership group (and therefore unlikely to garner sufficient political support).
- arrosenberg 4y ago
  Thats not a particularly compelling argument. Expertise is always for sale.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    > sufficient people with sufficient knowledge Sufficient is an important word, and sufficient expertise is not abundant in the business this thread is referring to. That is why Apple can lock up the most advanced chip supplies, that is why only one business in Taiwan makes it, why only one business in Netherlands can help the one in Taiwan make it, and why only one business in Germany can help the one in Netherlands make it.
    - arrosenberg 4y ago
      So you are saying the Apple, the company with the most money, is able to use that money to acquire a monopoly on the expertise needed for their chips. How does that refute my point? The USG can do the same thing if they want to spend the money.
      - lotsofpulp 4y ago
        I am saying Apple and the USG will not be able to acquire the chips that TSMC/ASML/Zeiss/whoever else is crucial are making in the event TSMC/ASML/Zeiss/etc stop existing, in a timely manner. Not that Apple and USG are not more or less indispensable than TSMC/ASML/Zeiss, that is neither here nor there. The point is some things simply have no fungibility, and hence you cannot buy your way out of it. If 2 billionaires got trapped on an island with all their wealth in cash, and neither knew how to build a boat or sail, all that cash is not going to help them avoid having to figure out how to build a boat and navigate the seas in sufficient time to survive.
        arrosenberg 4y ago
        I guess I’m unclear on your argument then. The entire point of this thread is that the US is building that fungibility (and they can do so by spending whatever is required to acquire people and machines to do it), and TMSC doesn’t like it. Obviously if those companies stopped existing today it would cause disruptions.
        lotsofpulp 4y ago
        > Thats another problem we can throw money at until it is resolved. My argument is it is possible the US cannot throw money at it until it is resolved, perhaps due to the R&D not resulting in success, due something external that causes US to lose ability to throw money at it, due to something internal that causes US to not politically support it, enough people not sufficiently interested in the sciences, etc.
  - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
    California hired best expertise in the world, the French national rail builder. They were so appauled at the political disfunction, they quit the project. They started one in morocoo instead - its already operating while the californian one is nor even 50% complete. Your political disfunction is part of the package. Incompetent management is too. You cant just hire 1 expert software engineer into dysfunctional conoany and expect great results
    - arrosenberg 4y ago
      Ok, but to my point, California was able to purchase the best expertise available. That they mismanaged it is a separate issue.
      - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
        My point is it does not matter how much money you spend, if you cant organise you aren't gonna replace TSMC
  - Slartie 4y ago
    Okay, I'd like to buy some expertise in building anti-gravity devices.
    - Nomentatus 4y ago
      I can put you in touch with the Montgolfier brothers for a reasonable price. :)
  - Nomentatus 4y ago
    Trade secrets aren't always for sale; or easy to discover. TSMC appears to have some, re EUV tech; maybe Intel will easily catch up once they too adopt the EUV tech (they didn't earlier 'cause they thought it wasn't ready for prime time.) I don't know.
thrown_22 4y ago
If money could solve every problem Mali would have conquered Europe. Culture matters more than money and Western culture is on a downward spiral.
- arrosenberg 4y ago
  Weird take! Mali was a French colony for a long time, so comparing it to the US (of all places) doesn’t make much sense. Culture does matter, but its pretty clear the west is the entrepreneurial engine of the global economy and that doesn’t seem likely to change.
  - thrown_22 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa_Musa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa_Musa At the same time Portugal was a bunch of poor fishermen trying to get past a sandbank on the African coast.
    - arrosenberg 4y ago
      And you think 14th century Africa is comparable to the modern world?
      - thrown_22 4y ago
        If 14th century Mali couldn't conquer 14th century Portugal money doesn't solve problems.
        arrosenberg 4y ago
        I have no idea if Mansa Musa spent huge amounts trying to conquer Portugal, or what his amphibious invasion capabilities were. To be honest, its a really silly comparison since the world was vastly different and neither of us can fully appreciate how it worked. I do know that the US has generally been successful when throwing resources at problems until they are solved in its recent history (at least to the Civil War), so its entirely reasonable to believe we can continue doing so successfully.
ClumsyPilot 4y ago
As germany is find out now, you can print money a but you cannot print energy. If US has destroyed its human capital in chipmaking, it will take decades to rebuild. And while doing so, it must navigate the same political system that makes it impossible for California to build a train
- jleyank 4y ago
  What if it is viewed as a software problem - figure out how to program two boring chips rather than a single, faster one? People used to program way closer to the bare metal so there’s all sorts of inefficiency that choice be squeezed out of how programs run if need be. Money and fear, as we have seen, is a powerful motivator.
mathverse 4y ago
Chinese government has an unlimited supply of money that they can throw at any problem and yet they failed to do so when it comes to advanced chips. They are always trying to poach engineers from TSMC,Samsung and others by offering N-times the salaries and it resulted in no significant gains.
- arrosenberg 4y ago
  So what? China is an authoritarian state that will kidnap your family. That has nothing to do with attracting talent to the US.
  - midoridensha 4y ago
    It has everything to do with it. You seem to be assuming the US is some kind of paradise that everyone would live to live in, despite the horrible culture, broken healthcare system, and mass shootings every other day. You can't just throw money at people and get them to come work for you wherever you are. Only some people will take the opportunity, others will decide other things are more important than money.
Slartie 4y ago
> Thats another problem we can throw money at until it is resolved. The Russians also assumed that "throwing money" at problems, like maintaining a huge army, would somehow resolve them without having to actually do the nasty job of, you know, solving problems at their roots. When push came to shove, it turned out that all the money went to some place nobody knows, but the problem stayed and got even bigger.

I will have to disagree. There are some aspects of life that are not purchase-able, at least not on a timescale that can be attributed to a single leadership group (and therefore unlikely to garner sufficient political support).

arrosenberg 4y ago
Thats not a particularly compelling argument. Expertise is always for sale.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  > sufficient people with sufficient knowledge Sufficient is an important word, and sufficient expertise is not abundant in the business this thread is referring to. That is why Apple can lock up the most advanced chip supplies, that is why only one business in Taiwan makes it, why only one business in Netherlands can help the one in Taiwan make it, and why only one business in Germany can help the one in Netherlands make it.
  - arrosenberg 4y ago
    So you are saying the Apple, the company with the most money, is able to use that money to acquire a monopoly on the expertise needed for their chips. How does that refute my point? The USG can do the same thing if they want to spend the money.
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      I am saying Apple and the USG will not be able to acquire the chips that TSMC/ASML/Zeiss/whoever else is crucial are making in the event TSMC/ASML/Zeiss/etc stop existing, in a timely manner. Not that Apple and USG are not more or less indispensable than TSMC/ASML/Zeiss, that is neither here nor there. The point is some things simply have no fungibility, and hence you cannot buy your way out of it. If 2 billionaires got trapped on an island with all their wealth in cash, and neither knew how to build a boat or sail, all that cash is not going to help them avoid having to figure out how to build a boat and navigate the seas in sufficient time to survive.
      - arrosenberg 4y ago
        I guess I’m unclear on your argument then. The entire point of this thread is that the US is building that fungibility (and they can do so by spending whatever is required to acquire people and machines to do it), and TMSC doesn’t like it. Obviously if those companies stopped existing today it would cause disruptions.
        lotsofpulp 4y ago
        > Thats another problem we can throw money at until it is resolved. My argument is it is possible the US cannot throw money at it until it is resolved, perhaps due to the R&D not resulting in success, due something external that causes US to lose ability to throw money at it, due to something internal that causes US to not politically support it, enough people not sufficiently interested in the sciences, etc.
- ClumsyPilot 4y ago
  California hired best expertise in the world, the French national rail builder. They were so appauled at the political disfunction, they quit the project. They started one in morocoo instead - its already operating while the californian one is nor even 50% complete. Your political disfunction is part of the package. Incompetent management is too. You cant just hire 1 expert software engineer into dysfunctional conoany and expect great results
  - arrosenberg 4y ago
    Ok, but to my point, California was able to purchase the best expertise available. That they mismanaged it is a separate issue.
    - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
      My point is it does not matter how much money you spend, if you cant organise you aren't gonna replace TSMC
- Slartie 4y ago
  Okay, I'd like to buy some expertise in building anti-gravity devices.
  - Nomentatus 4y ago
    I can put you in touch with the Montgolfier brothers for a reasonable price. :)
- Nomentatus 4y ago
  Trade secrets aren't always for sale; or easy to discover. TSMC appears to have some, re EUV tech; maybe Intel will easily catch up once they too adopt the EUV tech (they didn't earlier 'cause they thought it wasn't ready for prime time.) I don't know.

thrown_22 4y ago

If money could solve every problem Mali would have conquered Europe. Culture matters more than money and Western culture is on a downward spiral.

arrosenberg 4y ago
Weird take! Mali was a French colony for a long time, so comparing it to the US (of all places) doesn’t make much sense. Culture does matter, but its pretty clear the west is the entrepreneurial engine of the global economy and that doesn’t seem likely to change.
- thrown_22 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa_Musa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa_Musa At the same time Portugal was a bunch of poor fishermen trying to get past a sandbank on the African coast.
  - arrosenberg 4y ago
    And you think 14th century Africa is comparable to the modern world?
    - thrown_22 4y ago
      If 14th century Mali couldn't conquer 14th century Portugal money doesn't solve problems.
      - arrosenberg 4y ago
        I have no idea if Mansa Musa spent huge amounts trying to conquer Portugal, or what his amphibious invasion capabilities were. To be honest, its a really silly comparison since the world was vastly different and neither of us can fully appreciate how it worked. I do know that the US has generally been successful when throwing resources at problems until they are solved in its recent history (at least to the Civil War), so its entirely reasonable to believe we can continue doing so successfully.

ClumsyPilot 4y ago

As germany is find out now, you can print money a but you cannot print energy. If US has destroyed its human capital in chipmaking, it will take decades to rebuild. And while doing so, it must navigate the same political system that makes it impossible for California to build a train

jleyank 4y ago
What if it is viewed as a software problem - figure out how to program two boring chips rather than a single, faster one? People used to program way closer to the bare metal so there’s all sorts of inefficiency that choice be squeezed out of how programs run if need be. Money and fear, as we have seen, is a powerful motivator.

mathverse 4y ago

Chinese government has an unlimited supply of money that they can throw at any problem and yet they failed to do so when it comes to advanced chips. They are always trying to poach engineers from TSMC,Samsung and others by offering N-times the salaries and it resulted in no significant gains.

arrosenberg 4y ago
So what? China is an authoritarian state that will kidnap your family. That has nothing to do with attracting talent to the US.
- midoridensha 4y ago
  It has everything to do with it. You seem to be assuming the US is some kind of paradise that everyone would live to live in, despite the horrible culture, broken healthcare system, and mass shootings every other day. You can't just throw money at people and get them to come work for you wherever you are. Only some people will take the opportunity, others will decide other things are more important than money.

Slartie 4y ago

> Thats another problem we can throw money at until it is resolved. The Russians also assumed that "throwing money" at problems, like maintaining a huge army, would somehow resolve them without having to actually do the nasty job of, you know, solving problems at their roots. When push came to shove, it turned out that all the money went to some place nobody knows, but the problem stayed and got even bigger.