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TSMC Taiwan is panicking that the World will loose its interest in defending Taiwan against China once processors can be made elsewhere. Plus TSMC is afraid it

TSMC Taiwan is panicking that the World will loose its interest in defending Taiwan against China once processors can be made elsewhere. Plus TSMC is afraid it will start losing market once there will be more players there.

gonzo41 4y ago
The real politics of the situation for Taiwan is that if a fight breaks out, the US will happily send them weapons but they need to do the fighting. The US will be happy to supply guns, but is naturally diversifying chip making to de-risk the issue for itself and the world. Look at Ukraine, aside from grain and a few specialty items, it's not a huge exporter to the world. Yet a serious war there has caused global problems. China going for an expansionist romp into Taiwan will be 20X as impactful. Anyway, I thought things were going to go a lot different in 1999, last 20 years have been a real ride.
- ideamotor 4y ago
  How did you think things would go?
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Going out on a limb: Taiwan is preparing, with a lot of covert and not so covert, support from the US and other allies with stakes in the region for a potantial war. That involves weapon deliveries, training and what not. It is clear from where the imvasion will come, no way China can hide the build up in material, people and shipping prior to an invasion. And that invasion is over once enough tranport vessels fail to cross the Taiwan straight. Something made easier having years upon years to build ordonance at the shore lines to just do that. So, the initial invasion might just fail, replacement material will come over the Pacific and from Japan, global trade will basically cease to exist. On top of that you have the fallout from a military failure in China itself. In short, it'll be a mess of epic proportions and Taiwan will most likely not be invaded successfully.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relocated western media/think tankers previously based in mainland, who can all attest that TW military in both aquisitions and training is still an utter shitshow. Perhaps deliberately so, because TW's best defense is fighting to the last American. And ultimately TW doesn't have to be invaded successfully, it can be blockaded permenantly (and trivially) to deny both war material from going in or chips from going out. @hef19898 > potential to start a shooting war Escalating to shooting war is expected, but the point is a comprehensive blockade by PRC is feasible worst case contingency plan that can be done without any complicated hardware. Glide naval mines and MLRS can be launched from mainland in quantities that US+co simply lack capacity to circumvent to thoroughly lockdown TW ports/coasts and airstrips indefinitely. @LAC-Tech >yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua Listen harder? State media like Xinhua or CCTV7 (military) shows PRC accidents all the time. CCTV7 interviews also frequently shit talks about PRC military deficiencies, but it's dressed up as we've strived hard to improved substandard X to modern standards etc, and we still need to improve on areas we're lacking.
      - hef19898 4y ago
        Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.
      - LAC-Tech 4y ago
        Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.
      - Beltalowda 4y ago
        > yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?
  - gonzo41 4y ago
    Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. China needs to do about a millions things very competently and quickly to take Taiwan. The activities involved are things that would be hard for most western militaries today, even with all their money and skill. Here's a list of difficult things for china to do: 1. It's got to stage it's troops in a way that's real but maintains the element of surprise against an actor with US Intel backing it up. Even if it's just 1 guy from the NRO with a satellite phone and a laptop. The edge for Taiwan will be massive. 2. It's got to be able to cross 100km of open ocean with about 10-20 thousand troops as a first wave that can be dropped off rapidly to fight and survive on it's own. 3. Then those same ships will need to return and onboard more and more waves of troops that will need to be landed until they can safely establish maritime operations. In land warfare gaining air superiority is a first major goal. This is one of the reasons the Russians have gone so badly in Ukraine. For China, they will need to be able to own the sea and provide safety for their own ships as a highest priority. 4. The fighting on the beaches, will turn into fighting in the cities, and then fighting in the hills. Each one of these is a real challenge on it's own. It took the US military years to get good in Iraq. 5. Whilst China has lots of cash, and lots of men, and lots of tanks etc. The will power to fight may be an issue. For the Taiwanese soldiers, fighting and dying may mean independence for their family and nation. For the Chinese soldiers, fighting and dying probably just means they die. Its kind of a pointless activity for the soldier on the ground who just needed a job when they signed up for the PLA.
    - hef19898 4y ago
      It took the allies in WW2 almost two years to make 1 through 3 happen. Operation sea lion, the Nazi invasion of the UK, was canceled for failing at 3 after the battle of Britain.
    - yucky 4y ago
      >Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. Why would China use tactics and weaponry from 80 years ago though?
  - midoridensha 4y ago
    I don't know about the parent, but I was a teenager back in the 90s, and back then when the wall fell and the USSR collapsed, we thought all the ugliness of the 20th century, two world wars and a cold war, were all behind us and that we could look forward to lifetimes of relative peace, perhaps with some relatively small conflicts here and there (such as the Gulf War). It turns out the 90s was basically western civilization's peak.
  - shashurup 4y ago
    I'm afraid that as soon as China invades TSMC and some other tasty companies evacuate to US to never return. Then both Koreas and Japan are involved to end with a horrible horrible mess :(
LAC-Tech 4y ago
TSMC Taiwan is panicking that the World will loose its interest in defending Taiwan against China once processors can be made elsewhere. This is a surface level take on the situation. The disruptions to global shipping would be enormous, to say nothing of security implications, or fear of open conflict between nuclear powers. Potential destruction of semi-conductor fabs would be just the tip of the iceberg.
- throwawaylinux 4y ago
  > This is a surface level take on the situation. That's pretty rude and meaningless. Why not just say "I disagree"? > The disruptions to global shipping would be enormous, to say nothing of security implications, or fear of open conflict between nuclear powers. Potential destruction of semi-conductor fabs would be just the tip of the iceberg. Not if the rest of the world does not come to Taiwan's aid and allows China to roll over them, obviously. That is presumably what OP is saying their worry is, so that is what you have to address if you want to disagree.
  - LAC-Tech 4y ago
    That's pretty rude and meaningless. Why not just say "I disagree"? "Surface level" invites someone dig deeper. It's not a personal comment about a persons latent talent. If you think it's rude to point out a common opinion based on surface level knowledge of a complex situation, that's on you.
    - throwawaylinux 4y ago
      Well that's a very surface-level take on my comment, and after your extremely surface-level take on OP's comment.
fredgrott 4y ago
a question: We have the ARM licensing example. Could a player like TSMC do a reverse license where they license out their FABs factories for different other players? Or is that at the core of what they do but in different form?
- zxspectrum1982 4y ago
  It's not about licensing TSMC technology, it's about building and operating factories. IP can be easily copied and pirated, physical factories cannot.
poisonborz 4y ago
They should have panicked and outsourced earlier. The current state can't remain. Doesn't matter if the world defends Taiwan, or what the outcome would be, the moment China attacks or a natural catastrophe hits the semi industry there is doomed. The fact that so much important tech is concentrated on this tiny island is a huge risk regardless of any dangers.
eunos 4y ago
Less of that, TSMC fears that every great power wants their own Fabs (CN,US,EU) and TSMC as the de-facto monopoly of latest node will wane. Reminder that before Covid I believe, even Intel starts outsourcing to TSMC.

gonzo41 4y ago

The real politics of the situation for Taiwan is that if a fight breaks out, the US will happily send them weapons but they need to do the fighting. The US will be happy to supply guns, but is naturally diversifying chip making to de-risk the issue for itself and the world. Look at Ukraine, aside from grain and a few specialty items, it's not a huge exporter to the world. Yet a serious war there has caused global problems. China going for an expansionist romp into Taiwan will be 20X as impactful. Anyway, I thought things were going to go a lot different in 1999, last 20 years have been a real ride.

ideamotor 4y ago
How did you think things would go?
- hef19898 4y ago
  Going out on a limb: Taiwan is preparing, with a lot of covert and not so covert, support from the US and other allies with stakes in the region for a potantial war. That involves weapon deliveries, training and what not. It is clear from where the imvasion will come, no way China can hide the build up in material, people and shipping prior to an invasion. And that invasion is over once enough tranport vessels fail to cross the Taiwan straight. Something made easier having years upon years to build ordonance at the shore lines to just do that. So, the initial invasion might just fail, replacement material will come over the Pacific and from Japan, global trade will basically cease to exist. On top of that you have the fallout from a military failure in China itself. In short, it'll be a mess of epic proportions and Taiwan will most likely not be invaded successfully.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    That's a big limb considering TW military is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, or that island is small and heavily monitored, full of expats, especially relocated western media/think tankers previously based in mainland, who can all attest that TW military in both aquisitions and training is still an utter shitshow. Perhaps deliberately so, because TW's best defense is fighting to the last American. And ultimately TW doesn't have to be invaded successfully, it can be blockaded permenantly (and trivially) to deny both war material from going in or chips from going out. @hef19898 > potential to start a shooting war Escalating to shooting war is expected, but the point is a comprehensive blockade by PRC is feasible worst case contingency plan that can be done without any complicated hardware. Glide naval mines and MLRS can be launched from mainland in quantities that US+co simply lack capacity to circumvent to thoroughly lockdown TW ports/coasts and airstrips indefinitely. @LAC-Tech >yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua Listen harder? State media like Xinhua or CCTV7 (military) shows PRC accidents all the time. CCTV7 interviews also frequently shit talks about PRC military deficiencies, but it's dressed up as we've strived hard to improved substandard X to modern standards etc, and we still need to improve on areas we're lacking.
    - hef19898 4y ago
      Blockades themselves have the potential to start a shooting war, see the Cuban Missile crisis. A risky proposition either way. I do think so that generally the military might of China and Russia have been over estimated quite a bit so far.
    - LAC-Tech 4y ago
      Yeah I hear about Taiwan military mishaps on Taipei Times yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua. Ergo the Chinese military is in much better shape.
    - Beltalowda 4y ago
      > yet don't hear a peep about Chinese military issues on Global Times or XinHua How much did you hear about Russian military issues in January?
- gonzo41 4y ago
  Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. China needs to do about a millions things very competently and quickly to take Taiwan. The activities involved are things that would be hard for most western militaries today, even with all their money and skill. Here's a list of difficult things for china to do: 1. It's got to stage it's troops in a way that's real but maintains the element of surprise against an actor with US Intel backing it up. Even if it's just 1 guy from the NRO with a satellite phone and a laptop. The edge for Taiwan will be massive. 2. It's got to be able to cross 100km of open ocean with about 10-20 thousand troops as a first wave that can be dropped off rapidly to fight and survive on it's own. 3. Then those same ships will need to return and onboard more and more waves of troops that will need to be landed until they can safely establish maritime operations. In land warfare gaining air superiority is a first major goal. This is one of the reasons the Russians have gone so badly in Ukraine. For China, they will need to be able to own the sea and provide safety for their own ships as a highest priority. 4. The fighting on the beaches, will turn into fighting in the cities, and then fighting in the hills. Each one of these is a real challenge on it's own. It took the US military years to get good in Iraq. 5. Whilst China has lots of cash, and lots of men, and lots of tanks etc. The will power to fight may be an issue. For the Taiwanese soldiers, fighting and dying may mean independence for their family and nation. For the Chinese soldiers, fighting and dying probably just means they die. Its kind of a pointless activity for the soldier on the ground who just needed a job when they signed up for the PLA.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    It took the allies in WW2 almost two years to make 1 through 3 happen. Operation sea lion, the Nazi invasion of the UK, was canceled for failing at 3 after the battle of Britain.
  - yucky 4y ago
    >Honestly, if Taiwan wants to fight then just watch the start of 'Saving private Ryan' for a good idea of what establishing a beach head look likes. Why would China use tactics and weaponry from 80 years ago though?
- midoridensha 4y ago
  I don't know about the parent, but I was a teenager back in the 90s, and back then when the wall fell and the USSR collapsed, we thought all the ugliness of the 20th century, two world wars and a cold war, were all behind us and that we could look forward to lifetimes of relative peace, perhaps with some relatively small conflicts here and there (such as the Gulf War). It turns out the 90s was basically western civilization's peak.
- shashurup 4y ago
  I'm afraid that as soon as China invades TSMC and some other tasty companies evacuate to US to never return. Then both Koreas and Japan are involved to end with a horrible horrible mess :(

LAC-Tech 4y ago

TSMC Taiwan is panicking that the World will loose its interest in defending Taiwan against China once processors can be made elsewhere. This is a surface level take on the situation. The disruptions to global shipping would be enormous, to say nothing of security implications, or fear of open conflict between nuclear powers. Potential destruction of semi-conductor fabs would be just the tip of the iceberg.

throwawaylinux 4y ago
> This is a surface level take on the situation. That's pretty rude and meaningless. Why not just say "I disagree"? > The disruptions to global shipping would be enormous, to say nothing of security implications, or fear of open conflict between nuclear powers. Potential destruction of semi-conductor fabs would be just the tip of the iceberg. Not if the rest of the world does not come to Taiwan's aid and allows China to roll over them, obviously. That is presumably what OP is saying their worry is, so that is what you have to address if you want to disagree.
- LAC-Tech 4y ago
  That's pretty rude and meaningless. Why not just say "I disagree"? "Surface level" invites someone dig deeper. It's not a personal comment about a persons latent talent. If you think it's rude to point out a common opinion based on surface level knowledge of a complex situation, that's on you.
  - throwawaylinux 4y ago
    Well that's a very surface-level take on my comment, and after your extremely surface-level take on OP's comment.

fredgrott 4y ago

a question: We have the ARM licensing example. Could a player like TSMC do a reverse license where they license out their FABs factories for different other players? Or is that at the core of what they do but in different form?

zxspectrum1982 4y ago
It's not about licensing TSMC technology, it's about building and operating factories. IP can be easily copied and pirated, physical factories cannot.

poisonborz 4y ago

They should have panicked and outsourced earlier. The current state can't remain. Doesn't matter if the world defends Taiwan, or what the outcome would be, the moment China attacks or a natural catastrophe hits the semi industry there is doomed. The fact that so much important tech is concentrated on this tiny island is a huge risk regardless of any dangers.

eunos 4y ago

Less of that, TSMC fears that every great power wants their own Fabs (CN,US,EU) and TSMC as the de-facto monopoly of latest node will wane. Reminder that before Covid I believe, even Intel starts outsourcing to TSMC.