I think this is a backwards take. The social stigma against those not conforming to the assigned gender norms has been entrenched in our culture. We've been get

I think this is a backwards take. The social stigma against those not conforming to the assigned gender norms has been entrenched in our culture. We've been getting better in recent years - the number of fathers who beat their boys for picking out a pink shirt is dwindling, and as a society more of us are willing to entertain the idea that gender is a social construct that has no innate definition. It's very natural that in an environment more accepting of transgenderism, that more people will feel empowered to explore the idea and question what it could potentially mean for themselves. The appearance that a group that has accepted a single transgender person will somehow "begat" more transgender people seems pretty natural through this view, and seems much more scientific than the idea that transgenderism has some mysterious power to corrupt an otherwise cis-oriented person. Thailand is one example of a society that has had years of history and experience welcoming trans people. I'd be interested to see how your "social contagion" theory would fare there.