Couple things to note about this: 1) Mortgages dropped below 3.5% in ~2019. The median duration of home ownership in the US is 8 years. So: asserting that "mos

Couple things to note about this: 1) Mortgages dropped below 3.5% in ~2019. The median duration of home ownership in the US is 8 years. So: asserting that "most people I speak to who have locked in <3.5% are not planning on selling in the next 10 years" is kind of like... That's normal. Statistics assert they weren't going to sell independent of rates. 2) People severely underestimate how many houses in the US have no mortgage against them. Its somewhere around 35-40%. That's oftentimes because: the typical home seller in 2021 was 56 years old. The friends you queried are (probably) an anomaly in the market. 3) The reasons cited for why home owners sell their properties is far more varied than financial. The most typical reasons are: current home is too small, want to live closer to friends or family, moving for work, the neighborhood is becoming undesirable, and... death. Even in lower interest rate environments, most of these reasons would have resulted in a higher monthly payment; that's reasonably normal. The monthly payments today are, well, much higher; but the fiction that "I'm not selling because I'll end up paying more" doesn't really have basis in the core motivations for home sales (they might in the absolute pits of a recession, but that doesn't usually last long; certainly not as long as elevated interest rates; and even if they did, plenty of people end up being forced to sell because of money; but they're not going to go buy a new home in this market). 4) Happening simultaneously with rising interest rates is: the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the united states. Boomers are dying. Its estimated that, as their deaths accelerate over the next ten years, $30T-$60T in wealth (most of it in: real estate!) will be inherited by younger generations. Those numbers are mind-boggling. Its estimated that millennials, as a generational cohort, currently hold something like $10T in total wealth. Point being; there's a lot going on right now. Its really difficult to draw single-post conclusions about any of it. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US https://www.thezebra.com/resources/home/average-length-of-homeownership/ https://www.thezebra.com/resources/home/average-length-of-ho... https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2019/07/26/nearly-40-of-homes-in-the-us-are-free-and-clear-of-a-mortgage/?sh=6f8f1ae147c2 https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2019/07/26/nea... https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-rep... https://www.forbes.com/sites/josephcoughlin/2021/11/16/millennials-are-banking-on-the-great-wealth-transfer-4-words-why-you-shouldnt-cash-that-check-yet/?sh=7448b21d2dde https://www.forbes.com/sites/josephcoughlin/2021/11/16/mille... https://www.magnifymoney.com/news/net-worth-of-millennials/ https://www.magnifymoney.com/news/net-worth-of-millennials/