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There is a general principle that applies to markets and government policy: things are never as bad as they seem. Likewise they are never as good as they seem.
by jmyeet 4y ago
There is a general principle that applies to markets and government policy: things are never as bad as they seem. Likewise they are never as good as they seem. Fear and greed. It's why markets and governments and even people tend to overreact.
Rewind a few years and people were calling for antitrust actions against Facebook for their market dominance. Some still are. This never concerned me and I needed no better evidence than Instagram. Instagram popped up out of nowhere and was an existential threat to Facebook with 13 employees when Facebook bought them for $1 billion.
If in the space of a few years something can appear and threaten your very existence then you aren't as dominant as people were making out. If it happened once, it will happen again. And it has: a lot of particularly younger people (a key demographic) use Snap. And you can't ignore Tiktok, which is rapidly eating Facebook's attention economy.
The big problem for Facebook (sorry, "Meta") is they have no plan for the future. Oh, sorry, there's the Metaverse. That ain't it. There is absolutely no evidence that VR will ever be anything more than a niche. There's the argument that this will eventually lead to AR but once AR becomes viable (if it ever does) then Meta will be in the same competitive boat as many others because a VR headstart is no headstart at all.
So how long can Meta milk the advertising teat before drastic change is company strategy is called for? I'd say that's coming sooner rather than later.