Most people only own one home and when they sell their current home they need to buy or rent another one. So for these owners, the supply/demand balance should

Most people only own one home and when they sell their current home they need to buy or rent another one. So for these owners, the supply/demand balance should be minimally impacted by their actions. This is certainly an over simplification of how things work, for example during COVID a flight to the burbs caused a drop in urban condos and rise in single family homes. But on balance, I think it is a good rule of thumb to consider when trying to evaluate the real estate market. This means that prices are more likely going to be determined by the supply-demand balance between first time buyers, investor activity, new home builders, life events (death, divorce, etc...) and immigration vs emigration. I personally think that if employment holds steady, we will see more of a sideways market with some regional variances, but if employment starts going down then do does housing.