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Pretty much. The level of "a-ha! this confirms all my priors!" logic in these threads is just deafening. Look everyone: economies are cyclic. We had a boom.

by ajross 4y ago

Pretty much. The level of "a-ha! this confirms all my priors!" logic in these threads is just deafening. Look everyone: economies are cyclic. We had a boom. Now we're in a downturn. It's happened before, many times. It will happen again. Nothing happening today is remotely as scary as what we saw in 2008, frankly isn't nearly as disruptive as the 2001 crash. Google will be fine. The tech industry will be fine. Buy the dip, if you're into that sort of thing.

hanoz 4y ago
> Nothing happening today is remotely as scary as what we saw in 2008 As what's happening "today" is basically a postponed and amplified version of what should have happened in 2008, I have to disagree.
- mediumiqsad 4y ago
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Unemployment numbers at extreme lows as the Baby Boomers retire and millions of Americans are either dead or sick/disabled with Long-COVID19, hampering our economy with a lack of workers? I don't think today's economy is anything like the frothy housing bubble was in 2007/2008 timeframe. I think there's a possibility of a tech bubble akin to 2001, but that actually wasn't very disruptive for our economy. I see today more similar to 2001, aside from the weird supply chain issues due to a greatly diminished workforce (the Baby Boomer's retirement is the biggest challenge for this year IMO). (Of course, people have been calling a bubble in tech for decades now, but _eventually_ that damn tech bubble will pop again, lol)
Kye 4y ago
Forum commentators have predicted 100% of every collapse would be no big deal. 2008 wasn't just one thing: it was a cascade failure that progressed over the course of months. Nobody really knew how bad it was until we were down to the wire looking at a complete collapse of the financial system. Every downturn potentially breaks something big that was built on the assumption of infinite growth and had its tendrils into too many parts of the economy. edit to add: we already see a drying up of ad spends. What happens in an economy built on selling ads, or selling services to people who sell ads when ads sales fail to meet expectations for too long? Everyone forgets data-driven advertising is what saved tech after the crash. Public opinion is rapidly turning against that savior.
- slt2021 4y ago
  as long as people consume stuff, they will be shown ads
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    We're seeing historic reductions in the consumption of stuff too. A lot of people don't realize that pandemic stimulus checks in the US were being spent like extra pocket money (a lot of people bought durable goods with it), and now that there is no pretense to give out more money, consumer spending is likely to be lower than it would be without those checks.
    - slt2021 4y ago
      things will balance out, people will consumer fewer of luxury goods, will consume more of cheaper stuff. Brands will keep spending to keep their customers, and cheaper alternatives will keep spending on ads to promote their sales. In competitive market and free economy ads are a fundamental engine that will keep economy running. Ads is sort of toll booth that takes their cut no matter what

by ajross 4y ago

hanoz 4y ago

> Nothing happening today is remotely as scary as what we saw in 2008 As what's happening "today" is basically a postponed and amplified version of what should have happened in 2008, I have to disagree.

mediumiqsad 4y ago
dragontamer 4y ago
Unemployment numbers at extreme lows as the Baby Boomers retire and millions of Americans are either dead or sick/disabled with Long-COVID19, hampering our economy with a lack of workers? I don't think today's economy is anything like the frothy housing bubble was in 2007/2008 timeframe. I think there's a possibility of a tech bubble akin to 2001, but that actually wasn't very disruptive for our economy. I see today more similar to 2001, aside from the weird supply chain issues due to a greatly diminished workforce (the Baby Boomer's retirement is the biggest challenge for this year IMO). (Of course, people have been calling a bubble in tech for decades now, but _eventually_ that damn tech bubble will pop again, lol)

Kye 4y ago

Forum commentators have predicted 100% of every collapse would be no big deal. 2008 wasn't just one thing: it was a cascade failure that progressed over the course of months. Nobody really knew how bad it was until we were down to the wire looking at a complete collapse of the financial system. Every downturn potentially breaks something big that was built on the assumption of infinite growth and had its tendrils into too many parts of the economy. edit to add: we already see a drying up of ad spends. What happens in an economy built on selling ads, or selling services to people who sell ads when ads sales fail to meet expectations for too long? Everyone forgets data-driven advertising is what saved tech after the crash. Public opinion is rapidly turning against that savior.

slt2021 4y ago
as long as people consume stuff, they will be shown ads
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  We're seeing historic reductions in the consumption of stuff too. A lot of people don't realize that pandemic stimulus checks in the US were being spent like extra pocket money (a lot of people bought durable goods with it), and now that there is no pretense to give out more money, consumer spending is likely to be lower than it would be without those checks.
  - slt2021 4y ago
    things will balance out, people will consumer fewer of luxury goods, will consume more of cheaper stuff. Brands will keep spending to keep their customers, and cheaper alternatives will keep spending on ads to promote their sales. In competitive market and free economy ads are a fundamental engine that will keep economy running. Ads is sort of toll booth that takes their cut no matter what