4 ms·

Facebook is strategically no different than myspace a decade or two ago. When the cool kids go somewhere else, it becomes clear that the platform itself was no

by pevey 4y ago

Facebook is strategically no different than myspace a decade or two ago. When the cool kids go somewhere else, it becomes clear that the platform itself was nothing special. Edit: I was downvoted, but I stand by what I wrote. Google has Android and (for now) superior search results. Netflix has content (including their own, not just other people's). Apple has their devices, which are killing it right now. These companies will be okay. It is Facebook that might not exist in 5 years. What do they actually have other than fickle network effects that can be here today and gone tomorrow? VR? That won't save them.

P_I_Staker 4y ago
I don't know if this is really true. That shift has occurred to some extent. On the other hand, it seems to me that all the most sociable people I know are still on Facebook. There definitely are a lot of people that interact with Facebook less, which is obviously huge. I'm not sure these other social media sites will eat up Facebooks core business. It seems like Facebook could continue to struggle to grow, but these sites seem to fill different roles. I could definitely see Facebook becoming little more than a calendar/messaging system. Maybe it will collapse eventually, but what we saw with MySpace was pretty extreme, total, and sudden. It happened to Digg too, but wasn't this around the same time as the MySpace stuff was happening? I don't see much reason to think Reddit is going anywhere, either. We'll see, I wouldn't be shocked either way.
- djbusby 4y ago
  Well, Reddit is increasingly user hostile and their mobile experience gets worse every quarter. They'll end up killing themselves before they can IPO.
  - P_I_Staker 4y ago
    I would love to hear more about how Reddit is user hostile, though I have a few thoughts: - Inconsistent, biased, and downright arrogant moderation. - Communities drenched in extremism and horrendous discourse. Interacting with a Redditor is like trying to hug a porcupine - Rampant trolling, even in the best communities. Also, as a side note was getting sick of all the health and fitness cults. I got fed up getting banned for arguments with someone insulting me because I suggested that consuming massive amounts of fat might have negative health consequences, or that deadlifts are a frequent source of injury, both severe and chronic, or that peanut butter is actually one of the purest foods you can buy (seriously, read the label, it's almost entirely peanuts and salt)... It got so frustrating. I understand that there's counter arguments to this stuff, but these are very mainstream and rational beliefs, including with people that know what they're talking about. It seemed like the safer advise was being shouted down.
    - djbusby 4y ago
      Well, I'm not even talking about the community. I'm pointing at the tech, like, nagging for the App, please sign in, crappy video player, please sign in, random scrolling, random page reload, try our App!
      - P_I_Staker 4y ago
        Oh yeah, it's a dumpster fire. Also, did they really kill RPAN? I don't think that's a good idea, unless they were REALLY desperate for cuts, even if it wasn't very popular. I actually thought it filled a niche that is slightly different from what I find on twitch, youtube, facebook, ect. I found a lot of videos of random people just doing random things. I do happen to think the community may have lost it's way... OTH the era that some people see as the golden age of reddit included stuff like the fappening.
robofanatic 4y ago
> What do they actually have other than fickle network effects They can acquire other companies, basically thats how they have survived for a longtime.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- runevault 4y ago
  It depends. They couldn't acquire Tiktok because it was tied to the Chinese Govt. Who is to say their biggest competitors going forward won't be unbuyable yet again? They've survived to the degree they have by important purchases like Instagram and WhatsApp but if they can't make similar key purchases going forward they are in trouble. Hence the big bet on VR that is showing no real momentum, they need something they own and built in house because it is the only "sure" way to maintain market position. Get there first.
- TheCoelacanth 4y ago
  Anyone else with a large pile of money can acquire other companies. Does Facebook have a competitive advantage at buying companies?
jl6 4y ago
Maybe some other network will take over one day, but it doesn’t seem to be on the horizon, and until then Facebook’s network effect is a helluva moat.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  That other network's name is TikTok, and it took over from Instagram after Instagram took over from Facebook. This is, at least, where the valuable consumers (20-35 women are by far the most valuable from an advertising perspective) are spending the most time, even if they still have FB accounts.
  - colinmhayes 4y ago
    facebook and tiktok serve completely different niches, as much as mark doesn't want to admit it. Tiktoks network is billions of people, facebook still controls the "social" network. That may be less important as people transition to online personalities, but I don't see the demand for an actual social network of real life friends/acquaintances going away anytime soon.
postalrat 4y ago
I think you are wrong about the cool kids. The problems isn't that the cool kids went somewhere else. The problem is that the cool kids never really meant anything. People's attention shifted to different "cool kids" then the old "cool kids" adapted.

by pevey 4y ago

P_I_Staker 4y ago

I don't know if this is really true. That shift has occurred to some extent. On the other hand, it seems to me that all the most sociable people I know are still on Facebook. There definitely are a lot of people that interact with Facebook less, which is obviously huge. I'm not sure these other social media sites will eat up Facebooks core business. It seems like Facebook could continue to struggle to grow, but these sites seem to fill different roles. I could definitely see Facebook becoming little more than a calendar/messaging system. Maybe it will collapse eventually, but what we saw with MySpace was pretty extreme, total, and sudden. It happened to Digg too, but wasn't this around the same time as the MySpace stuff was happening? I don't see much reason to think Reddit is going anywhere, either. We'll see, I wouldn't be shocked either way.

djbusby 4y ago
Well, Reddit is increasingly user hostile and their mobile experience gets worse every quarter. They'll end up killing themselves before they can IPO.
- P_I_Staker 4y ago
  I would love to hear more about how Reddit is user hostile, though I have a few thoughts: - Inconsistent, biased, and downright arrogant moderation. - Communities drenched in extremism and horrendous discourse. Interacting with a Redditor is like trying to hug a porcupine - Rampant trolling, even in the best communities. Also, as a side note was getting sick of all the health and fitness cults. I got fed up getting banned for arguments with someone insulting me because I suggested that consuming massive amounts of fat might have negative health consequences, or that deadlifts are a frequent source of injury, both severe and chronic, or that peanut butter is actually one of the purest foods you can buy (seriously, read the label, it's almost entirely peanuts and salt)... It got so frustrating. I understand that there's counter arguments to this stuff, but these are very mainstream and rational beliefs, including with people that know what they're talking about. It seemed like the safer advise was being shouted down.
  - djbusby 4y ago
    Well, I'm not even talking about the community. I'm pointing at the tech, like, nagging for the App, please sign in, crappy video player, please sign in, random scrolling, random page reload, try our App!
    - P_I_Staker 4y ago
      Oh yeah, it's a dumpster fire. Also, did they really kill RPAN? I don't think that's a good idea, unless they were REALLY desperate for cuts, even if it wasn't very popular. I actually thought it filled a niche that is slightly different from what I find on twitch, youtube, facebook, ect. I found a lot of videos of random people just doing random things. I do happen to think the community may have lost it's way... OTH the era that some people see as the golden age of reddit included stuff like the fappening.

robofanatic 4y ago

> What do they actually have other than fickle network effects They can acquire other companies, basically thats how they have survived for a longtime.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
runevault 4y ago
It depends. They couldn't acquire Tiktok because it was tied to the Chinese Govt. Who is to say their biggest competitors going forward won't be unbuyable yet again? They've survived to the degree they have by important purchases like Instagram and WhatsApp but if they can't make similar key purchases going forward they are in trouble. Hence the big bet on VR that is showing no real momentum, they need something they own and built in house because it is the only "sure" way to maintain market position. Get there first.
TheCoelacanth 4y ago
Anyone else with a large pile of money can acquire other companies. Does Facebook have a competitive advantage at buying companies?

jl6 4y ago

Maybe some other network will take over one day, but it doesn’t seem to be on the horizon, and until then Facebook’s network effect is a helluva moat.

pclmulqdq 4y ago
That other network's name is TikTok, and it took over from Instagram after Instagram took over from Facebook. This is, at least, where the valuable consumers (20-35 women are by far the most valuable from an advertising perspective) are spending the most time, even if they still have FB accounts.
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  facebook and tiktok serve completely different niches, as much as mark doesn't want to admit it. Tiktoks network is billions of people, facebook still controls the "social" network. That may be less important as people transition to online personalities, but I don't see the demand for an actual social network of real life friends/acquaintances going away anytime soon.

postalrat 4y ago

I think you are wrong about the cool kids. The problems isn't that the cool kids went somewhere else. The problem is that the cool kids never really meant anything. People's attention shifted to different "cool kids" then the old "cool kids" adapted.