5 ms·

A good time to be looking for a house. A terrible time to be looking for a mortgage.

falcolas 4y ago
I guess in my mind, short of the ultra-rich (someone with half a million plus in cash) and investment firms, the two are equivalent.
- zwieback 4y ago
  There are a lot of non-ultra-rich people close to retirement with maybe 300 or 400K they want to move away from more volatile instruments. That's what we did a few years ago and with the housing market now favoring cash buyers even more I'm tempted to repeat.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    Putting a few hundred thousand in one parcel of land and structure seems a lot more volatile than a cheap broad market equity or bond or target date index fund.
mym1990 4y ago
It’s still not a great time to look for a house. Prices have come down some but no where near enough to offset how much they went up by in the first 2 years. I guess if someone’s price anchor has been reset to the new normal, a house now looks great…
- jollyllama 4y ago
  It can go one of two ways. Inventory continues its years long downward trend as people stop selling due to the price drops. Or, the increased rates combined with price drops trigger a wave of foreclosures and the market crashes hard. I think the former is more likely.
  - BuckRogers 4y ago
    Inventory continues to rise today while new listings go down. Prices are going down continuously in my market. The outlook for a cash buyer is good right now, especially by January. All it will take is one more economic blip and your 2nd scenario becomes true. Which I've read a recession is to be declared before the end of the year and it's a sure thing. We're already have improved conditions for home buying unless you're cash poor. I know I'm in a better position than I was in March of this year. I've been working these sellers hard and they're powerless. By January through the rest of 2023, they're going to be completely at a cash buyer's mercy. The zero-savings lemmings are out of the market. The ones that foolishly drove up their own prices, instead of pocketing the savings on 3% loans. I'd bet on Powell fulfilling his promise to correct real estate prices to affordable levels. It's nowhere close to being done yet, so everyone that bought a house with cheap money better like what they purchased. Probably not, since in the 3% era you had about 30 minutes to decide if you were going to buy the home or not.
    - jollyllama 4y ago
      Your saying is true. It all depends on if the supply holds out.
  - qqqwerty 4y ago
    Inventory will likely go down, but that doesn't really matter if demand goes down further. A lot of folks think that higher interest rates are going to result in more people sitting tight which will lower inventory, which in turn will keep prices high. But for most folks, when they sell a house, they are also buying a house. Their net effect on supply/demand washes out. The market is going to be determined by the balance between first time buyers and investors, home builders, sellers due to life events etc... More people sitting tight due to interest rate increases isn't going to save the housing market from price declines.

I guess in my mind, short of the ultra-rich (someone with half a million plus in cash) and investment firms, the two are equivalent.

zwieback 4y ago
There are a lot of non-ultra-rich people close to retirement with maybe 300 or 400K they want to move away from more volatile instruments. That's what we did a few years ago and with the housing market now favoring cash buyers even more I'm tempted to repeat.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  Putting a few hundred thousand in one parcel of land and structure seems a lot more volatile than a cheap broad market equity or bond or target date index fund.

mym1990 4y ago

It’s still not a great time to look for a house. Prices have come down some but no where near enough to offset how much they went up by in the first 2 years. I guess if someone’s price anchor has been reset to the new normal, a house now looks great…

jollyllama 4y ago
It can go one of two ways. Inventory continues its years long downward trend as people stop selling due to the price drops. Or, the increased rates combined with price drops trigger a wave of foreclosures and the market crashes hard. I think the former is more likely.
- BuckRogers 4y ago
  Inventory continues to rise today while new listings go down. Prices are going down continuously in my market. The outlook for a cash buyer is good right now, especially by January. All it will take is one more economic blip and your 2nd scenario becomes true. Which I've read a recession is to be declared before the end of the year and it's a sure thing. We're already have improved conditions for home buying unless you're cash poor. I know I'm in a better position than I was in March of this year. I've been working these sellers hard and they're powerless. By January through the rest of 2023, they're going to be completely at a cash buyer's mercy. The zero-savings lemmings are out of the market. The ones that foolishly drove up their own prices, instead of pocketing the savings on 3% loans. I'd bet on Powell fulfilling his promise to correct real estate prices to affordable levels. It's nowhere close to being done yet, so everyone that bought a house with cheap money better like what they purchased. Probably not, since in the 3% era you had about 30 minutes to decide if you were going to buy the home or not.
  - jollyllama 4y ago
    Your saying is true. It all depends on if the supply holds out.
- qqqwerty 4y ago
  Inventory will likely go down, but that doesn't really matter if demand goes down further. A lot of folks think that higher interest rates are going to result in more people sitting tight which will lower inventory, which in turn will keep prices high. But for most folks, when they sell a house, they are also buying a house. Their net effect on supply/demand washes out. The market is going to be determined by the balance between first time buyers and investors, home builders, sellers due to life events etc... More people sitting tight due to interest rate increases isn't going to save the housing market from price declines.