3 ms·

> It’s not like Facebook is a competitor of theirs Apple's about to launch a new virtual reality headset in just over 2 months, that'll directly compete with F

> It’s not like Facebook is a competitor of theirs Apple's about to launch a new virtual reality headset in just over 2 months, that'll directly compete with Facebook.[0] Facebook's product, unlike pre-iPhone smartphones, is very decent, and Apple seems to target a high price, so the competition will likely be fierce. [0]: https://www.macrumors.com/2022/09/04/apple-reality-pro-to-be-first-of-three-headsets/ https://www.macrumors.com/2022/09/04/apple-reality-pro-to-be...

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
Could be a competitor in a future possibly-irrelevant product line is a far cry from being a competitor.
- concinds 4y ago
  2 months is hardly far into the future, and no Apple analyst would agree that it's irrelevant. People expect it to be bigger than Apple Watch, and to eventually supplant both computers and phones.
  - bagels 4y ago
    Vr headsets are not replacing phones this year.
    - andsoitis 4y ago
      Or in the next 10.
      - cercatrova 4y ago
        I wonder if someone would have said the same thing about pocket computers in 1997.
        mrguyorama 4y ago
        They would have been mostly right. The iPhone didn't come out until like 2007, and handheld computers before that were pretty niche
        cercatrova 4y ago
        They said 10 years, hence why I picked 1997 as the year specifically. The average person in 1997 could not comprehend the iPhone a mere ten years later, just as we today cannot comprehend 2032 in terms of VR/AR/XR glasses.
        andsoitis 4y ago
        What I said was that VR gear won't replace smart phones in the next 10 years. So it isn't about presence (after all, we have and have had VR/AR/XR equipment for quite some time now), but rather about relative ubiquity and obsolescence of what came before (in this case, replacing smart phones). I might have a blind spot here (or lack imagination), but I think some of the reasons why I don't see these glasses making mobile phones obsolete in a 10 year time frame as a confluence of: - people in the US by and large prefer not to wear things on their faces (is it seen as weak, esthetically unpleasing, sign of old age?) - mobile phones (and smart watches, etc.) provide a good balance between mobility and utility - if VR/AR/XR moves to contact lenses, the first point goes away but you will still need input mechanisms etc. and I doubt that contact lens formats will be able to supplant photographing/video and music playback which has become such a big use case for mobile phones. Arguing against myself (somewhat): I think for VR/AR/XR to be truly successful, you need to feed the experience directly into the brain because that gives you high fidelity, high mobility, and removes the physical barriers that a contraption on your head brings. But that is even further out than 20 years, assuming humans don't retaliate against the idea of interpersonal communications that is so heavily mediated (read: manipulated) by a company (this happens in social media already).
        cercatrova 4y ago
        People have said the exact same things about phones ("who'd want to carry around a device in their pocket everywhere? It'd be too heavy and annoying"). Really, it's simply a lack of imagination. People wear glasses and contacts all the time and no one bats an eye (metaphorically speaking at least).
  - init2null 4y ago
    I do so love the wild ideas of tech market theorists. People really believe that they're going to put smart glasses on everyone's faces? That they can fit in all-day batteries? How exactly do we type into this head-mounted beast? Will the contrast be remotely acceptable for movies? I don't think these problems can be completely solved for the majority of users. You'd do much better comparing them to smart watches and second screens. That's where they can actually work.
    - Nevermark 4y ago
      > "We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," Ed Colligan apparently laughed about with John Markoff last Thursday morning. "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in." [0] You ask good questions! But you make the same mistake as you accuse the tech market theorists of: You seem to think you know what is (or isn't) going to happen, and what dimensions an unreleased product should be measured on. Apple like Nintendo doesn't primarily market their products based on specs, or on expected use cases. Novel interfaces and uses are far more important to creating demand for a new product than meeting the spec and feature expectations of the market (or market watchers) before the product is announced. [0] https://www.engadget.com/2006-11-21-palms-ed-colligan-laughs-off-iphone.html https://www.engadget.com/2006-11-21-palms-ed-colligan-laughs...

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

Could be a competitor in a future possibly-irrelevant product line is a far cry from being a competitor.

concinds 4y ago
2 months is hardly far into the future, and no Apple analyst would agree that it's irrelevant. People expect it to be bigger than Apple Watch, and to eventually supplant both computers and phones.
- bagels 4y ago
  Vr headsets are not replacing phones this year.
  - andsoitis 4y ago
    Or in the next 10.
    - cercatrova 4y ago
      I wonder if someone would have said the same thing about pocket computers in 1997.
      - mrguyorama 4y ago
        They would have been mostly right. The iPhone didn't come out until like 2007, and handheld computers before that were pretty niche
        cercatrova 4y ago
        They said 10 years, hence why I picked 1997 as the year specifically. The average person in 1997 could not comprehend the iPhone a mere ten years later, just as we today cannot comprehend 2032 in terms of VR/AR/XR glasses.
        andsoitis 4y ago
        What I said was that VR gear won't replace smart phones in the next 10 years. So it isn't about presence (after all, we have and have had VR/AR/XR equipment for quite some time now), but rather about relative ubiquity and obsolescence of what came before (in this case, replacing smart phones). I might have a blind spot here (or lack imagination), but I think some of the reasons why I don't see these glasses making mobile phones obsolete in a 10 year time frame as a confluence of: - people in the US by and large prefer not to wear things on their faces (is it seen as weak, esthetically unpleasing, sign of old age?) - mobile phones (and smart watches, etc.) provide a good balance between mobility and utility - if VR/AR/XR moves to contact lenses, the first point goes away but you will still need input mechanisms etc. and I doubt that contact lens formats will be able to supplant photographing/video and music playback which has become such a big use case for mobile phones. Arguing against myself (somewhat): I think for VR/AR/XR to be truly successful, you need to feed the experience directly into the brain because that gives you high fidelity, high mobility, and removes the physical barriers that a contraption on your head brings. But that is even further out than 20 years, assuming humans don't retaliate against the idea of interpersonal communications that is so heavily mediated (read: manipulated) by a company (this happens in social media already).
        cercatrova 4y ago
        People have said the exact same things about phones ("who'd want to carry around a device in their pocket everywhere? It'd be too heavy and annoying"). Really, it's simply a lack of imagination. People wear glasses and contacts all the time and no one bats an eye (metaphorically speaking at least).
- init2null 4y ago
  I do so love the wild ideas of tech market theorists. People really believe that they're going to put smart glasses on everyone's faces? That they can fit in all-day batteries? How exactly do we type into this head-mounted beast? Will the contrast be remotely acceptable for movies? I don't think these problems can be completely solved for the majority of users. You'd do much better comparing them to smart watches and second screens. That's where they can actually work.
  - Nevermark 4y ago
    > "We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," Ed Colligan apparently laughed about with John Markoff last Thursday morning. "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in." [0] You ask good questions! But you make the same mistake as you accuse the tech market theorists of: You seem to think you know what is (or isn't) going to happen, and what dimensions an unreleased product should be measured on. Apple like Nintendo doesn't primarily market their products based on specs, or on expected use cases. Novel interfaces and uses are far more important to creating demand for a new product than meeting the spec and feature expectations of the market (or market watchers) before the product is announced. [0] https://www.engadget.com/2006-11-21-palms-ed-colligan-laughs-off-iphone.html https://www.engadget.com/2006-11-21-palms-ed-colligan-laughs...