Well, I'm not a domain expert here, but I have followed this a bit over the years. Here's my understanding: 1. Prediction actually is getting quite good, jus

Well, I'm not a domain expert here, but I have followed this a bit over the years. Here's my understanding: 1. Prediction actually is getting quite good, just not on the time scales that we're interested in, which would probably be somewhere between weeks and minutes. 2. I don't think that at the moment we have access to input variables with sufficient power to be predictive on those time scales. Right now, I think one of the best predictors of large EQ's on short time scales is a sudden increase in variance of seismic activity. Which is sort of obvious when you think about it... The best predictor of a big slip is when it's already started slipping. 3. There have been good gains on minute time scale warnings simply by using sensors and communication networks that can outpace the speed of the seismic waves. This can actually be incredibly helpful for seismic sensitive systems!