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Nah they are cultivating a growth story, and the markets will eat it up in a few years when they are desperate for growth stocks again. Even though it'll be 20

Nah they are cultivating a growth story, and the markets will eat it up in a few years when they are desperate for growth stocks again. Even though it'll be 20 years old by that time. Maybe they won't get a 15 billion valuation or whatever but the early investors/conde nast will make a healthy profit. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1360263618508521480 https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1360263618508521480

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> markets will eat it up in a few years when they are desperate for growth stocks again This requires low short-term and long-term rates for more than one fund cycle. That puts the IPO out, at a minimum, 5 to 7 years. It also puts it at odds with most near-term rates forecasts. If Reddit is waiting for peak valuations to go public, they'll be waiting for 10+ years or, more likely, be bought while running out of money, because waiting for multiples to change as a business strategy is a piss poor one.
- fullshark 4y ago
  They don't need peak valuations, just a market that's not cowering in fear. It may even come within a year, I don't know their financials but they will find a window, maybe one where FB's social networks show clear weakness and they can sell a story as usupers of their market share. My guess is reddit is just trying to weather the storm to find that window and eventually it will come though maybe not satisfying their pre-recession fantasies.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > don't need peak valuations, just a market that's not cowering in fear Present multiples do not convey this is a fearful market [1]. [1] https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
    - fullshark 4y ago
      So the claim is interest rates will never get low enough to make unprofitable social networks that are growing enticing IPOs again? Or at least for years? If that's the case I guess private acquisition is another way out, but I think kicking the can down the road and waiting for sentiment to change makes sense. No doubt interest rates play a role in appetite for risk, but also there's a lot of public cash out there looking for growth companies even in a higher interest rate environment and I can see Reddit taking that route even if it's not the perfect outcome. Ultimately, remaining private and trying to grow a sustainable, profitable business isn't going to be what they choose. I didn't even get into the porn situation, which may be why they decide to just go the tumblr route and try and cash out to a larger tech co though.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> markets will eat it up in a few years when they are desperate for growth stocks again This requires low short-term and long-term rates for more than one fund cycle. That puts the IPO out, at a minimum, 5 to 7 years. It also puts it at odds with most near-term rates forecasts. If Reddit is waiting for peak valuations to go public, they'll be waiting for 10+ years or, more likely, be bought while running out of money, because waiting for multiples to change as a business strategy is a piss poor one.

fullshark 4y ago
They don't need peak valuations, just a market that's not cowering in fear. It may even come within a year, I don't know their financials but they will find a window, maybe one where FB's social networks show clear weakness and they can sell a story as usupers of their market share. My guess is reddit is just trying to weather the storm to find that window and eventually it will come though maybe not satisfying their pre-recession fantasies.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > don't need peak valuations, just a market that's not cowering in fear Present multiples do not convey this is a fearful market [1]. [1] https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
  - fullshark 4y ago
    So the claim is interest rates will never get low enough to make unprofitable social networks that are growing enticing IPOs again? Or at least for years? If that's the case I guess private acquisition is another way out, but I think kicking the can down the road and waiting for sentiment to change makes sense. No doubt interest rates play a role in appetite for risk, but also there's a lot of public cash out there looking for growth companies even in a higher interest rate environment and I can see Reddit taking that route even if it's not the perfect outcome. Ultimately, remaining private and trying to grow a sustainable, profitable business isn't going to be what they choose. I didn't even get into the porn situation, which may be why they decide to just go the tumblr route and try and cash out to a larger tech co though.