> If China invades, it has a very strong incentive to attack U.S. bases first. And if China attacks U.S. bases, the U.S. is highly likely to respond by fighting

> If China invades, it has a very strong incentive to attack U.S. bases first. And if China attacks U.S. bases, the U.S. is highly likely to respond by fighting China. Neither assertions make sense because both sides, and the rest of the world, have an overwhelming interest in avoiding a direct war. Of course, the issue here is that the scenarios considered does not include the most realistic and probable one, should the PRC decides to invade Taiwan. China is not going to attack the US or US bases in the region. They obviously know that this would be a Pearl Harbor moment and WWIII. But the US are not going to do nothing, either. They have been supplying and helping Taiwan for decades and would continue. See what's happening in Ukraine but probably much more extensive in terms of supplies and intelligence and a range of international sanctions. On the other hand the US are also not going to attack China, for the same reasons as China is not going to attack the US. What is quite clear is that the PRC cannot afford to launch an invasion and lose or being dragged into a long war. Therefore they need overwhelming superiority first, which they don't have at the moment. Then, there's of course the economic and political cost, which is up to the PRC to weight. If they think that this the way for the Party to survive and remain in power they IMHO would probably be willing to pay that cost.