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Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… the exact sa

by vxNsr 4y ago

Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… the exact same argument being made for why China can’t invade Taiwan, too many companies rely on it.

dragonwriter 4y ago
> Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… No, they thought Russia wouldn’t do it because Ukraine had a Russia aligned government up until just before the invasion.
Apocryphon 4y ago
The Russian armed forces has had a lot of actual battlefield experience invading Georgia in the ‘00s, bombing Syria in the ‘10s, not to mention its internal bloody counterinsurgency occupation in Chechnya in the ‘90s. The Chinese military hasn’t fought a real war since against Vietnam in 1979, and its navy has had no experience at all since- Korea? The end of the civil war? War is entirely more uncertain for China, and potentially more destabilizing with more to lose, than it was for Russia.
- hunterb123 4y ago
  The PRC constantly skirmishes with India and has land grabbed many islands in the South China Sea, many already occupied. Yes, since and during the communist takeover of China, all of its military might has generally been directed inwards at it's own people, but they are still a military force and are well organized. I'd equate the current period of the PRC to the Soviet arms build up of the Cold War.
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. The point is how the PLA would fare in an actual war is far from known yet. As far as the Soviet military went, the fallout of that buildup, and the actual condition of the Red Army, are known after the fact now.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. Skirmishing against a near-peer like India is probably better preparation for a large scale war against a well-financed enemy with modern equipment, doctrine, and Western support than Russia’s wars against lesser former Soviet states and in support of Syria.
      - Apocryphon 4y ago
        Were they actually "skirmishing" though? I thought it was mostly border guards scuffling, even engaging in hand-to-hand combat at one point.
  - coredog64 4y ago
    What we’ve found out in Ukraine is that much of the military spending has been siphoned off by corrupt leadership. How do we know that the same thing isn’t happening in China?
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > What we’ve found out in Ukraine is that much of the military spending has been siphoned off by corrupt leadership We didn’t find that out in Ukraine, we’ve known that from fairly widely circulated news, often from direct participants in the corruption (such as the people to whom essential gear was sold), consistently since at least the First Chechen War of the mid-1990s (where sales of fuel, weapons, and ammunition by Russian military personnel with custody over them to the enemy were a significant and recurring thing.) What we have learned in Ukraine is a better idea of the extent of the effect of that longstanding problem on current Russian military capacity. Now, it could be that China has a similar problem and has been better at keeping it under wraps than Russia has been for the past 30 or so years, but there is not much reason to suspect that.
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  RuAF war experience mostly involved insurgents, or very weakened states (Georgia 08, Ukraine 2014). Ukraine 2022 seems to be a much tougher nut to crack. Even though by now the Russians have 8 more months of intense battlefield experience, they seem to be worse off strategically than at the beginning of the war. It is in Taiwan's interest to be at least as tough a nut as Ukraine is, and I think they are trying.

by vxNsr 4y ago

dragonwriter 4y ago

> Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… No, they thought Russia wouldn’t do it because Ukraine had a Russia aligned government up until just before the invasion.

Apocryphon 4y ago

The Russian armed forces has had a lot of actual battlefield experience invading Georgia in the ‘00s, bombing Syria in the ‘10s, not to mention its internal bloody counterinsurgency occupation in Chechnya in the ‘90s. The Chinese military hasn’t fought a real war since against Vietnam in 1979, and its navy has had no experience at all since- Korea? The end of the civil war? War is entirely more uncertain for China, and potentially more destabilizing with more to lose, than it was for Russia.

hunterb123 4y ago
The PRC constantly skirmishes with India and has land grabbed many islands in the South China Sea, many already occupied. Yes, since and during the communist takeover of China, all of its military might has generally been directed inwards at it's own people, but they are still a military force and are well organized. I'd equate the current period of the PRC to the Soviet arms build up of the Cold War.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. The point is how the PLA would fare in an actual war is far from known yet. As far as the Soviet military went, the fallout of that buildup, and the actual condition of the Red Army, are known after the fact now.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. Skirmishing against a near-peer like India is probably better preparation for a large scale war against a well-financed enemy with modern equipment, doctrine, and Western support than Russia’s wars against lesser former Soviet states and in support of Syria.
    - Apocryphon 4y ago
      Were they actually "skirmishing" though? I thought it was mostly border guards scuffling, even engaging in hand-to-hand combat at one point.
- coredog64 4y ago
  What we’ve found out in Ukraine is that much of the military spending has been siphoned off by corrupt leadership. How do we know that the same thing isn’t happening in China?
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > What we’ve found out in Ukraine is that much of the military spending has been siphoned off by corrupt leadership We didn’t find that out in Ukraine, we’ve known that from fairly widely circulated news, often from direct participants in the corruption (such as the people to whom essential gear was sold), consistently since at least the First Chechen War of the mid-1990s (where sales of fuel, weapons, and ammunition by Russian military personnel with custody over them to the enemy were a significant and recurring thing.) What we have learned in Ukraine is a better idea of the extent of the effect of that longstanding problem on current Russian military capacity. Now, it could be that China has a similar problem and has been better at keeping it under wraps than Russia has been for the past 30 or so years, but there is not much reason to suspect that.
inglor_cz 4y ago
RuAF war experience mostly involved insurgents, or very weakened states (Georgia 08, Ukraine 2014). Ukraine 2022 seems to be a much tougher nut to crack. Even though by now the Russians have 8 more months of intense battlefield experience, they seem to be worse off strategically than at the beginning of the war. It is in Taiwan's interest to be at least as tough a nut as Ukraine is, and I think they are trying.