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> For those saying that can't happen, think Ukraine in 2012 or 2018. Russia? Invading? Can't happen. They "invaded" Crimea in 2013, a lot of people expected wh

> For those saying that can't happen, think Ukraine in 2012 or 2018. Russia? Invading? Can't happen. They "invaded" Crimea in 2013, a lot of people expected what's currently happening. edit: 2014 not 2013. Also Crimea overwhelmingly supported being annexed into Russia as they were severely mistreated by Ukraine. There were very clear tensions leading up to both Crimea and Ukraine events. But using the political events of Ukraine/Russia to support tossing Taiwan to the PRC is not something I agree with.

gjsman-1000 4y ago
Incorrect. Crimea was invaded in 2014. My point was that in 2012, it was 2 years before the invasion, and less foreseeable despite how quickly in the grand scheme of things it came afterwards.
- vxNsr 4y ago
  Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… the exact same argument being made for why China can’t invade Taiwan, too many companies rely on it.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… No, they thought Russia wouldn’t do it because Ukraine had a Russia aligned government up until just before the invasion.
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    The Russian armed forces has had a lot of actual battlefield experience invading Georgia in the ‘00s, bombing Syria in the ‘10s, not to mention its internal bloody counterinsurgency occupation in Chechnya in the ‘90s. The Chinese military hasn’t fought a real war since against Vietnam in 1979, and its navy has had no experience at all since- Korea? The end of the civil war? War is entirely more uncertain for China, and potentially more destabilizing with more to lose, than it was for Russia.
    - hunterb123 4y ago
      The PRC constantly skirmishes with India and has land grabbed many islands in the South China Sea, many already occupied. Yes, since and during the communist takeover of China, all of its military might has generally been directed inwards at it's own people, but they are still a military force and are well organized. I'd equate the current period of the PRC to the Soviet arms build up of the Cold War.
      - Apocryphon 4y ago
        Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. The point is how the PLA would fare in an actual war is far from known yet. As far as the Soviet military went, the fallout of that buildup, and the actual condition of the Red Army, are known after the fact now.
        dragonwriter 4y ago
        > Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. Skirmishing against a near-peer like India is probably better preparation for a large scale war against a well-financed enemy with modern equipment, doctrine, and Western support than Russia’s wars against lesser former Soviet states and in support of Syria.
        Apocryphon 4y ago
        Were they actually "skirmishing" though? I thought it was mostly border guards scuffling, even engaging in hand-to-hand combat at one point.
      - coredog64 4y ago
        What we’ve found out in Ukraine is that much of the military spending has been siphoned off by corrupt leadership. How do we know that the same thing isn’t happening in China?
ZanyProgrammer 4y ago
2014.

gjsman-1000 4y ago

Incorrect. Crimea was invaded in 2014. My point was that in 2012, it was 2 years before the invasion, and less foreseeable despite how quickly in the grand scheme of things it came afterwards.

vxNsr 4y ago
Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… the exact same argument being made for why China can’t invade Taiwan, too many companies rely on it.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > Additionally Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, people thought Russia wouldn’t do this because of how it would mess up the food supply chain… No, they thought Russia wouldn’t do it because Ukraine had a Russia aligned government up until just before the invasion.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  The Russian armed forces has had a lot of actual battlefield experience invading Georgia in the ‘00s, bombing Syria in the ‘10s, not to mention its internal bloody counterinsurgency occupation in Chechnya in the ‘90s. The Chinese military hasn’t fought a real war since against Vietnam in 1979, and its navy has had no experience at all since- Korea? The end of the civil war? War is entirely more uncertain for China, and potentially more destabilizing with more to lose, than it was for Russia.
  - hunterb123 4y ago
    The PRC constantly skirmishes with India and has land grabbed many islands in the South China Sea, many already occupied. Yes, since and during the communist takeover of China, all of its military might has generally been directed inwards at it's own people, but they are still a military force and are well organized. I'd equate the current period of the PRC to the Soviet arms build up of the Cold War.
    - Apocryphon 4y ago
      Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. The point is how the PLA would fare in an actual war is far from known yet. As far as the Soviet military went, the fallout of that buildup, and the actual condition of the Red Army, are known after the fact now.
      - dragonwriter 4y ago
        > Yes they have a large and considerably upgraded military, but border skirmishes and planting flags on unpopulated rocks are hardly comparable to Russia’s recent post-Cold War military experience. Skirmishing against a near-peer like India is probably better preparation for a large scale war against a well-financed enemy with modern equipment, doctrine, and Western support than Russia’s wars against lesser former Soviet states and in support of Syria.
        Apocryphon 4y ago
        Were they actually "skirmishing" though? I thought it was mostly border guards scuffling, even engaging in hand-to-hand combat at one point.
    - coredog64 4y ago
      What we’ve found out in Ukraine is that much of the military spending has been siphoned off by corrupt leadership. How do we know that the same thing isn’t happening in China?

ZanyProgrammer 4y ago

2014.