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There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India

by rapsey 4y ago

There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India/Vietnam is copying the Chinese cookbook. Ony TSMC is capable of producing the most performant chips.

gjsman-1000 4y ago
> There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India/Vietnam is copying the Chinese cookbook. Yes, and no. Apple has done manufacturing in America before, a long time ago (remember the Apple II?). Also with the $200B in cash they had, they could probably build every factory down to the screw factory they needed. Also worth remembering is that iPhone bodies don't change very much (iPhone SE is like, a decade of a design and still going). $200B would buy at least 5 or more latest-gen chip plants, easily, or at least give TSMC all the capital they needed. If I was Tim Cook, I would have absolutely looked into segmentation. American manufacturing for American customers, Chinese manufacturing for European/Asian customers, Indian manufacturing for Indian customers.
- rapsey 4y ago
  > Also with the $200B in cash they had When exactly are you talking about? > $200B would buy at least 5 or more latest-gen chip plants, easily, or at least give TSMC all the capital they needed. $200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B? > If I was Tim Cook, I would have absolutely looked into segmentation. American manufacturing for American customers, Chinese manufacturing for European/Asian customers, Indian manufacturing for Indian customers. I mean they are doing this as per the article.
  - gjsman-1000 4y ago
    > $200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B? Not necessarily a decade. Intel is promising ~4 years for their fabs, and hoping to be online by 2025-ish if I recall correctly. Fab production is also, it seems, going quicker than expected. > When exactly are you talking about? In 2018, Apple's cash pile hit $285 Billion. I was underestimating it. Imagine if they had started building fabs back in 2018 or earlier - they would be coming online, potentially, right now. Which would have been great. > I mean they are doing this as per the article. I'm looking at geopolitics and thinking this could end up being too little too late. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/apple-earnings-q1-2018-how-much-money-does-apple-have.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/apple-earnings-q1-2018-how-m...
    - rapsey 4y ago
      Your point is very strange. Apple did not just suddenly decide in 2018 to manufacture in China. It is what they have been doing for like 10-15 years before that. If you count from iPod on. In mid 2000s it certainly was not an option to manufacture just anywhere and certainly not by them. > Not necessarily a decade. Intel is promising ~4 years for their fabs, and hoping to be online by 2025-ish if I recall correctly. Fab production is also, it seems, going quicker than expected. Ok and how many generations is Intel behind TSMC now and how many will they be in 4 years? You think Apple investors and customers are suddenly going to be OK with a new version of the iphone being worse than its predecessor? To be feasible they can't just catch up, they have to surpass.
    - coredog64 4y ago
      Intel already has plenty of fabs in the US. There are also a number of semiconductor companies with fabs in the US. They might not be as advanced as TSMC, but the infrastructure and workforce is already in place. What is lacking is a desire to dump a bunch of capital into fabs in an industry that has a history of severe boom/bust cycles.
    - Maursault 4y ago
      > In 2018, Apple's cash pile hit $285 Billion. I was underestimating it. Much has changed since 2018. Apple cash on hand for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was $48.231B, a 21.82% decline year-over-year. Apple cash on hand for 2021 was $62.639B, a 31.12% decline from 2020. Apple cash on hand for 2020 was $90.943B, a 9.56% decline from 2019 Apple cash on hand for 2019 was $100.557B, a 51.67% increase from 2018.[1] [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on-hand https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on...
      - rapsey 4y ago
        Yeah but they probably spent the money on stock buybacks.
        Maursault 4y ago
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

by rapsey 4y ago

gjsman-1000 4y ago

> There was no alternative at the time regarding overall production. China gave them the option to be extremely flexible and efficient. Other countries like India/Vietnam is copying the Chinese cookbook. Yes, and no. Apple has done manufacturing in America before, a long time ago (remember the Apple II?). Also with the $200B in cash they had, they could probably build every factory down to the screw factory they needed. Also worth remembering is that iPhone bodies don't change very much (iPhone SE is like, a decade of a design and still going). $200B would buy at least 5 or more latest-gen chip plants, easily, or at least give TSMC all the capital they needed. If I was Tim Cook, I would have absolutely looked into segmentation. American manufacturing for American customers, Chinese manufacturing for European/Asian customers, Indian manufacturing for Indian customers.

rapsey 4y ago
> Also with the $200B in cash they had When exactly are you talking about? > $200B would buy at least 5 or more latest-gen chip plants, easily, or at least give TSMC all the capital they needed. $200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B? > If I was Tim Cook, I would have absolutely looked into segmentation. American manufacturing for American customers, Chinese manufacturing for European/Asian customers, Indian manufacturing for Indian customers. I mean they are doing this as per the article.
- gjsman-1000 4y ago
  > $200B and a decade. Also do you think Taiwan is just going to let go of their biggest bargaining chip for a measly $200B? Not necessarily a decade. Intel is promising ~4 years for their fabs, and hoping to be online by 2025-ish if I recall correctly. Fab production is also, it seems, going quicker than expected. > When exactly are you talking about? In 2018, Apple's cash pile hit $285 Billion. I was underestimating it. Imagine if they had started building fabs back in 2018 or earlier - they would be coming online, potentially, right now. Which would have been great. > I mean they are doing this as per the article. I'm looking at geopolitics and thinking this could end up being too little too late. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/apple-earnings-q1-2018-how-much-money-does-apple-have.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/apple-earnings-q1-2018-how-m...
  - rapsey 4y ago
    Your point is very strange. Apple did not just suddenly decide in 2018 to manufacture in China. It is what they have been doing for like 10-15 years before that. If you count from iPod on. In mid 2000s it certainly was not an option to manufacture just anywhere and certainly not by them. > Not necessarily a decade. Intel is promising ~4 years for their fabs, and hoping to be online by 2025-ish if I recall correctly. Fab production is also, it seems, going quicker than expected. Ok and how many generations is Intel behind TSMC now and how many will they be in 4 years? You think Apple investors and customers are suddenly going to be OK with a new version of the iphone being worse than its predecessor? To be feasible they can't just catch up, they have to surpass.
  - coredog64 4y ago
    Intel already has plenty of fabs in the US. There are also a number of semiconductor companies with fabs in the US. They might not be as advanced as TSMC, but the infrastructure and workforce is already in place. What is lacking is a desire to dump a bunch of capital into fabs in an industry that has a history of severe boom/bust cycles.
  - Maursault 4y ago
    > In 2018, Apple's cash pile hit $285 Billion. I was underestimating it. Much has changed since 2018. Apple cash on hand for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was $48.231B, a 21.82% decline year-over-year. Apple cash on hand for 2021 was $62.639B, a 31.12% decline from 2020. Apple cash on hand for 2020 was $90.943B, a 9.56% decline from 2019 Apple cash on hand for 2019 was $100.557B, a 51.67% increase from 2018.[1] [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on-hand https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/cash-on...
    - rapsey 4y ago
      Yeah but they probably spent the money on stock buybacks.
      - Maursault 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
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