3 ms·

I would not be surprised if the Fed oversteers in both directions, and rates start coming back down as fast as they went up. If that happens, this could all be

by thunky 4y ago

I would not be surprised if the Fed oversteers in both directions, and rates start coming back down as fast as they went up. If that happens, this could all be another pump fake downturn that heads right back up. Especially since the labor market is more than fine and this correction seem to be purely due to lever pulling vs actual market dynamics. I think there's a long way to go until the excess gets cleared out. Maybe not a long way down, but a long time period with poor returns to put things back in balance.

asdajksah2123 4y ago
The Fed has historically been extremely reluctant to lower rates. The actions 2008 onwards were a massive historical aberration. One that was proven fairly correct when you compare the US's macros relative to Europe's, where the ECB did not take as aggressive measures. One could argue that they should not have kept interest rates low in the 2nd half of the 2010s, but it was those low interest rates that has allowed the Fed to rapidly increase rates and yet barely touch historically average rates.
- thunky 4y ago
  > The actions 2008 onwards were a massive historical aberration Just like the time right before that, when Greenspan cut rates and kept them low fueling another major asset bubble. It's almost like that's the new normal. > allowed the Fed to rapidly increase rates and yet barely touch historically average rates If only someone could get a loan using the historical average rate.