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I don't particularly want to get into a point scoring match because clearly we are looking at things from different sides of the political aisle, as it were. H
by brc 15y ago
I don't particularly want to get into a point scoring match because clearly we are looking at things from different sides of the political aisle, as it were.
However, to clarify the point : the government debt is low by world standards, but growing fast, and that is while the economy is at a cyclical high. What I am trying to say here is that : current government debt spending is unsustainable and unwise. The comparison with Ireland is to show this : there is never a good time to start growing your government debt, particularly when your economy is being underpinned by excessively high property prices and diversion of resources into the property industry. What, precisely, would the Australian government do if the banks were all caught short because they are overexposed to the overleveraged and overvalued property market? Why, of course they would be considered 'too big to fail' and public funds would be used to bail them out. And Australians would suffer from the same transfer of private debt to public sector debt to shore up the balance sheets of the big four banks who have massive holdings of residential mortgages. If anyone thinks it can't happen here, I'd be very interested in why not.
My overall thesis is that, yes, Australia is doing well, but that is precisely the time to tighten up and do better, rather than give a collective pat on the back and say, 'well the hard work has been done, let's all borrow a heap of money and give ourselves a reward'.
In other words, yes, on a Friday afternoon, crack a coldie and enjoy a quick survey of things. Back on Monday morning continue the hard work of difficult economic reforms and tightening the fiscal belt and getting productivity higher. Those difficult economic reforms are more deregulation of the labor market, removal of red tape surrounding industry, find out how more international investment can be attracted. Work out how productivity and foreign investment can be increased. The hard work never stops and it's never time to get complacent.
- robryan 15y agoWhat I find surprising though is that the government is putting pressure on the big bangs to decrease interest rates in line with the reserve bank. I would think the last thing you would want it for the banks to start operating unsustainably lending wise. Sure the banks make crazy profits but I think it's preferable than for them to be a disaster waiting to happen if there is any downturn.
- brc 15y agoYes - and the majority of the bank lending is done in the international market which has nothing to do with the RB interest rate. Banks should be allowed to charge whatever interest rate they like. It's bad enough that there is a centrally fixed interest rate, but that's workable as long as there aren't rules that say everyone has to borrow at that rate.
- nl 15y agoHowever, to clarify the point : the government debt is low by world standards, but growing fast, and that is while the economy is at a cyclical high Oh, right. I think that's where we mostly disagree. I think current government spending is what is propping-up the "slow" part of the two-speed economy. The government needs to find ways to support the bad parts of the economy while stopping the high-growth areas (ie, mining) from becoming "too hot". If anyone thinks it can't happen here, I'd be very interested in why not. I'm not saying "it can't happen here", but it is much less likely than it was in other markets. See http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/A-capital-idea-KLS8R?OpenDocument http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/A-capital... for why.