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> It’s a story few could have foreseen It's been a while since I've read a sentence that ignorant in financial news. Everyone saw this coming - we all just di

> It’s a story few could have foreseen It's been a while since I've read a sentence that ignorant in financial news. Everyone saw this coming - we all just disagreed on the timing.

Ekaros 4y ago
All time high prices and rising interest rates for new loans should tell everything. If you have even basic understanding how average people are estimated for their capacity of taking loans.
Finnucane 4y ago
Maybe the author is not old enough to remember 2006-7?
scottshea 4y ago
Agreed. At the very minimum the interest rates rising should have been a strong warning.
- chrismarlow9 4y ago
  Isn't it kind of the entire point of raising the interest rate? How could they say nobody saw this coming. The people in charge of fiscal policy literally said "we are going to do this"
silisili 4y ago
I genuinely don't get this. Everyone older than 30 or so saw the writing on the wall... hey, this is 2006-2008 all over again. Why so many people, even institutions, kept arguing otherwise baffles me. It's like CNN telling us to stick a fork in a light socket, their experts are sure it won't shock us this time.
- buscoquadnary 4y ago
  It's the same reason they told us inflation wasn't happening, and then it was transitory, then it was because of Putin, now it is actually a good thing. They have no respect for you or your intelligence and they want you to feel scared. The goal of propaganda is not to convert you to anything it is simply to convince you that you are alone, so that you won't have the courage to point out the emporer is wearing no clothes.
  - asdajksah2123 4y ago
    > It's the same reason they told us inflation wasn't happening, and then it was transitory, then it was because of Putin, now it is actually a good thing. Who is "they" here? Because this is a very strange timeline/explanation of inflation and bears very little resemblance to what people who matter were actually saying. The only part that Central banks really got wrong was that inflation that was originally driven by pandemic driven supply chain issues would be transitory. And they openly admitted they were wrong and course corrected very rapidly.
    - buscoquadnary 4y ago
      > Who is "they" here? The immortal Mesopotamian space lizards obviously. I love the part of the game where we all pretend then that we didn't actually see what we saw and that the reality we saw wasn't real. Like when everyone said that "no one ever said masks are ineffective", or "the vaccine will be the end of the pandemic " my personal favorite was "2 weeks to slow the grow", the only one better than that was "when we said Russia hacked the election we only ever meant that people in Russia also supported Donald Trump we never meant anything ridiculous by that". Although who can forget the iconic "firey but mostly peaceful protests" that consumed large swathes of America.
      - unethical_ban 4y ago
        Please, link to a paper of record that said the 2016 accusations were related to actual hacking of machines. Violence in 2020 protests was limited to several cities but people who live in BFE saw Jesse Watters tell them about the end of the empire. CDC recommended against masks early on and I resent that for it being incorrect info even if they were doing it for a net good. But also because it gives conspiracy theorist lie-mongers oxygen.
- sidewndr46 4y ago
  Agreed. Even though I am way too young to have owned a house in 2006, I don't forget the stories from others about how they bought a condo for $90,000 in 2000 and turned downed an offer of $200,000 or more in late 2005. There are many forces and policies that control housing prices in the US but one thing is obvious: it's subject to insane booms and busts.
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  > Why so many people, even institutions, kept arguing otherwise baffles me. I think it was here on HN I first saw the expression "Pessimists get the benefit of being right, optimists get the benefit of being rich." I generally consider myself a pessimist (well I think I'm realist...) but I somewhat agree with this logic. What really happens is that (especially) institutions have to make money today. If you're in a bubble, and know you're in a bubble, philosophically it is quite correct to point out that everything around is is built on shaking foundations and will collapse. It can be maddening to see others not understand this. But if you're the one in change of a fund, and we're in a bubble, you can't simply not participate because their is still money on the table and your job is to grab it while you can. It doesn't benefit financial institutions to see bubbles or question fundamentals because it may make you hesitate when you should be focused on getting that next increase.
  - P5fRxh5kUvp2th 4y ago
    lucky optimists get the benefit of being rich. There's skill involved, I'm not saying otherwise, but lets be honest about what's really going on in the vast majority of cases.
- jstarfish 4y ago
  > I genuinely don't get this. Everyone older than 30 or so saw the writing on the wall... hey, this is 2006-2008 all over again. Right, but "this time it'll be different. I'm getting in on it early."
lazide 4y ago
The alternative, admitting it was obvious to everyone paying attention, would point the finger at the responsible parties (everywhere) who either initiated it, sustained it, or profited from it. Which is a great many people in the financial industry. Why self flaggate when you can pretend it was a surprise instead?
- z3c0 4y ago
  Exactly. For me, this article trending on HN is a pretty good signal that the bags have finally been passed, and the "keeping buying" narrative is no longer necessary or lucrative.
  - lazide 4y ago
    Yup. I imagine most of the key stakeholder/editorial approvers have already taken up some kind of short position, or at least exited any of their positions that require an up and to the right trajectory quite awhile ago.
matai_kolila 4y ago
"the timing" is the only thing to talk about; saying "The economy will, at some point in the future, contract." is not in any way an interesting statement. So yeah, when they say "it's a story few could have foreseen" they are definitely talking about the timing.
- conductr 4y ago
  I sold a house in late 2020 hoping to beat the RE crash only to see it appreciate about 40% or more in 2021. It’s been a weird ride this time.
asdajksah2123 4y ago
The exact same thing happened 15 years ago.
- foogazi 4y ago
  Totally different scenarios
dylan604 4y ago
Because in "downturns" the wealthy accumulate more wealth. Since there is still stuff they don't own yet, it's time to have another downturn. Just a small/short one though, as they don't want to be too greedy. That's just rude.
P5fRxh5kUvp2th 4y ago
That line jumped out at me as well. Hell, a lot of this got called out before Covid really picked up steam. No one knew exactly what it would look like, but they knew it was coming. These people were just playing chairs and thought they wouldn't get caught standing when the music stopped.

> It’s a story few could have foreseen It's been a while since I've read a sentence that ignorant in financial news. Everyone saw this coming - we all just disagreed on the timing.

Ekaros 4y ago

All time high prices and rising interest rates for new loans should tell everything. If you have even basic understanding how average people are estimated for their capacity of taking loans.

Finnucane 4y ago

Maybe the author is not old enough to remember 2006-7?

scottshea 4y ago

Agreed. At the very minimum the interest rates rising should have been a strong warning.

chrismarlow9 4y ago
Isn't it kind of the entire point of raising the interest rate? How could they say nobody saw this coming. The people in charge of fiscal policy literally said "we are going to do this"

silisili 4y ago

I genuinely don't get this. Everyone older than 30 or so saw the writing on the wall... hey, this is 2006-2008 all over again. Why so many people, even institutions, kept arguing otherwise baffles me. It's like CNN telling us to stick a fork in a light socket, their experts are sure it won't shock us this time.

buscoquadnary 4y ago
It's the same reason they told us inflation wasn't happening, and then it was transitory, then it was because of Putin, now it is actually a good thing. They have no respect for you or your intelligence and they want you to feel scared. The goal of propaganda is not to convert you to anything it is simply to convince you that you are alone, so that you won't have the courage to point out the emporer is wearing no clothes.
- asdajksah2123 4y ago
  > It's the same reason they told us inflation wasn't happening, and then it was transitory, then it was because of Putin, now it is actually a good thing. Who is "they" here? Because this is a very strange timeline/explanation of inflation and bears very little resemblance to what people who matter were actually saying. The only part that Central banks really got wrong was that inflation that was originally driven by pandemic driven supply chain issues would be transitory. And they openly admitted they were wrong and course corrected very rapidly.
  - buscoquadnary 4y ago
    > Who is "they" here? The immortal Mesopotamian space lizards obviously. I love the part of the game where we all pretend then that we didn't actually see what we saw and that the reality we saw wasn't real. Like when everyone said that "no one ever said masks are ineffective", or "the vaccine will be the end of the pandemic " my personal favorite was "2 weeks to slow the grow", the only one better than that was "when we said Russia hacked the election we only ever meant that people in Russia also supported Donald Trump we never meant anything ridiculous by that". Although who can forget the iconic "firey but mostly peaceful protests" that consumed large swathes of America.
    - unethical_ban 4y ago
      Please, link to a paper of record that said the 2016 accusations were related to actual hacking of machines. Violence in 2020 protests was limited to several cities but people who live in BFE saw Jesse Watters tell them about the end of the empire. CDC recommended against masks early on and I resent that for it being incorrect info even if they were doing it for a net good. But also because it gives conspiracy theorist lie-mongers oxygen.
sidewndr46 4y ago
Agreed. Even though I am way too young to have owned a house in 2006, I don't forget the stories from others about how they bought a condo for $90,000 in 2000 and turned downed an offer of $200,000 or more in late 2005. There are many forces and policies that control housing prices in the US but one thing is obvious: it's subject to insane booms and busts.
time_to_smile 4y ago
> Why so many people, even institutions, kept arguing otherwise baffles me. I think it was here on HN I first saw the expression "Pessimists get the benefit of being right, optimists get the benefit of being rich." I generally consider myself a pessimist (well I think I'm realist...) but I somewhat agree with this logic. What really happens is that (especially) institutions have to make money today. If you're in a bubble, and know you're in a bubble, philosophically it is quite correct to point out that everything around is is built on shaking foundations and will collapse. It can be maddening to see others not understand this. But if you're the one in change of a fund, and we're in a bubble, you can't simply not participate because their is still money on the table and your job is to grab it while you can. It doesn't benefit financial institutions to see bubbles or question fundamentals because it may make you hesitate when you should be focused on getting that next increase.
- P5fRxh5kUvp2th 4y ago
  lucky optimists get the benefit of being rich. There's skill involved, I'm not saying otherwise, but lets be honest about what's really going on in the vast majority of cases.
jstarfish 4y ago
> I genuinely don't get this. Everyone older than 30 or so saw the writing on the wall... hey, this is 2006-2008 all over again. Right, but "this time it'll be different. I'm getting in on it early."

lazide 4y ago

The alternative, admitting it was obvious to everyone paying attention, would point the finger at the responsible parties (everywhere) who either initiated it, sustained it, or profited from it. Which is a great many people in the financial industry. Why self flaggate when you can pretend it was a surprise instead?

z3c0 4y ago
Exactly. For me, this article trending on HN is a pretty good signal that the bags have finally been passed, and the "keeping buying" narrative is no longer necessary or lucrative.
- lazide 4y ago
  Yup. I imagine most of the key stakeholder/editorial approvers have already taken up some kind of short position, or at least exited any of their positions that require an up and to the right trajectory quite awhile ago.

matai_kolila 4y ago

"the timing" is the only thing to talk about; saying "The economy will, at some point in the future, contract." is not in any way an interesting statement. So yeah, when they say "it's a story few could have foreseen" they are definitely talking about the timing.

conductr 4y ago
I sold a house in late 2020 hoping to beat the RE crash only to see it appreciate about 40% or more in 2021. It’s been a weird ride this time.

asdajksah2123 4y ago

The exact same thing happened 15 years ago.

foogazi 4y ago
Totally different scenarios

dylan604 4y ago

Because in "downturns" the wealthy accumulate more wealth. Since there is still stuff they don't own yet, it's time to have another downturn. Just a small/short one though, as they don't want to be too greedy. That's just rude.

P5fRxh5kUvp2th 4y ago

That line jumped out at me as well. Hell, a lot of this got called out before Covid really picked up steam. No one knew exactly what it would look like, but they knew it was coming. These people were just playing chairs and thought they wouldn't get caught standing when the music stopped.