4 ms·

To be honest, in the case of the explosions, this is what most of the world believes. It doesn't make sense that russia sabotages its own infrastructure.

Epa095 4y ago
It shows that he is willing to cross (another) border we didn't think he would cross. The motivation is to cause fear, uncertainty, and doubt in western countries, lowering support for Ukraine. Here in Norway we are definitely more worried than we were before, so that part of it is working. Will it help him split the west? Will more and more people speak out against supporting Ukraine? Fear can be a powerful motivator. Time will tell.
Semaphor 4y ago
While I wouldn’t say "most of the world", it’s certainly not "few doubt that the Kremlin did it" either.
- rat9988 4y ago
  Maybe "most of the world" is a view colored by my own bubble. I haven't made any statistics I'll admit.
lkrubner 4y ago
I think most people assume Putin blew up the pipeline to limit the possibility of his would-be successors being able to sell gas/oil to the West. And Putin has probably rigged the other pipelines with explosives. Otherwise the incentive is too strong: someone in the FSB or the military could kill Putin and start selling unlimited amounts of oil/gas to the West. Putin is well aware how easy life is going to be for his successor, unless he takes steps to limit their options.
- rat9988 4y ago
  From a succession perspective I can see the argument. That said, he has limited his own options. For this whole time, Putin has tried to negotiate, the gas with sanctions lifting and stopping ukraine help from europe. He has lost his only leverage. It would make more sense that the US or ukraine did it, in order to corner russia.
  - andy_ppp 4y ago
    Not really, it could even be the Chinese if you want to get really conspiratorial. However, looking at the behaviour of Russia recently with their non-linear war, $300m spent on information warfare, invasion of Ukraine, support of dictatorship abroad etc. who is the more likely to have bombed this infrastructure is highly debatable at least.
munchausen42 4y ago
It does make sense for russia (or at least Gazprom). They've cut deliveries through the gas pipelines anyway. Now they might have needed a reason not to pay penalties for contract violation. By blaming random terrorists or the US they can claim technical issues beyond their control.

Epa095 4y ago

It shows that he is willing to cross (another) border we didn't think he would cross. The motivation is to cause fear, uncertainty, and doubt in western countries, lowering support for Ukraine. Here in Norway we are definitely more worried than we were before, so that part of it is working. Will it help him split the west? Will more and more people speak out against supporting Ukraine? Fear can be a powerful motivator. Time will tell.

Semaphor 4y ago

While I wouldn’t say "most of the world", it’s certainly not "few doubt that the Kremlin did it" either.

rat9988 4y ago
Maybe "most of the world" is a view colored by my own bubble. I haven't made any statistics I'll admit.

lkrubner 4y ago

I think most people assume Putin blew up the pipeline to limit the possibility of his would-be successors being able to sell gas/oil to the West. And Putin has probably rigged the other pipelines with explosives. Otherwise the incentive is too strong: someone in the FSB or the military could kill Putin and start selling unlimited amounts of oil/gas to the West. Putin is well aware how easy life is going to be for his successor, unless he takes steps to limit their options.

rat9988 4y ago
From a succession perspective I can see the argument. That said, he has limited his own options. For this whole time, Putin has tried to negotiate, the gas with sanctions lifting and stopping ukraine help from europe. He has lost his only leverage. It would make more sense that the US or ukraine did it, in order to corner russia.
- andy_ppp 4y ago
  Not really, it could even be the Chinese if you want to get really conspiratorial. However, looking at the behaviour of Russia recently with their non-linear war, $300m spent on information warfare, invasion of Ukraine, support of dictatorship abroad etc. who is the more likely to have bombed this infrastructure is highly debatable at least.

munchausen42 4y ago

It does make sense for russia (or at least Gazprom). They've cut deliveries through the gas pipelines anyway. Now they might have needed a reason not to pay penalties for contract violation. By blaming random terrorists or the US they can claim technical issues beyond their control.