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You're just describing capacity factor extremely poorly. I'm very sorry you had wildly unrealistic expectations about your home solar panels, but that doesn't c
by Schroedingersat 4y ago
You're just describing capacity factor extremely poorly. I'm very sorry you had wildly unrealistic expectations about your home solar panels, but that doesn't change the fact that a mix of around 50-70% net renewable capacity is cheaper than any other source in raw energy terms without any storage and more competitive for total system cost than a similar carbon reduction via nuclear.
> Here's today so far. It's horrible. Again, clouds.
> https://i.imgur.com/breTHQd.png https://i.imgur.com/breTHQd.png
So you're getting around a 8-10% capacity factor on a cloudy day in winter. Sounds pretty good to me especially if you're somewhere like NY.
Using curtailment, medium distance transmission between uncorrelated sources, short term storage and OCGT or CCGT backup can eliminate more carbon more quickly and with fewer resources and less strain on the grid than any other option. Once you've funded the cheap stuff that removes 50-70% of the carbon, then it's time to think about the stuff that costs 10x as much. Before then, moving a dollar from the renewable pile to the nuclear pile is 30kg of carbon left on the table right now to save 3kg later.
Additionally both electrolysis and batteries are plummeting in price, and waiting six months, then ordering 100s of megawatts a year of $60/kWh iron or sodium batteries or $300/kW electrolysers is much better than starting a sticker price $5000/kW nuclear project that might be complete for double that in 12 years (and still requires just as much gas backup even then).
> The only real solution I see is a large amount of new nuclear power generation and, yes, some solar and wind. I don't think there's another way to do it. Part of me think that manufacturing, transporting and installing that many panels and batteries is likely to create a far greater ecological disaster than most people imagine. Just a hunch, haven't done the numbers on that one.
Well please do the math. Then compare it to mining the low grade Uranium ore with lower energy density than oil which will be required for massive nuclear expansion in countries where the mining industry has more power over environmental regulations than the government. PWRs are an important part of the mix, but they're limited to about 1TW before they require technologies to acquire fuel that are not considered safe, have never been commercialised or haven't even left the lab.
Additionally compare it to using fossil fuels for an additional 50 years while the required nuclear infrastructure is funded and then built.
Also why 1.2TW? That's roughly 4kW per car or more than triple the energy content of every barrel of oil that enters the US (and also triple the net electricity consumption). Surely 'charge the car where it happens to be or convince the owner to charge it on a timer' is an easier problem than spending $12k to $40k per person on redundant capacity.
- robomartin 4y ago> So you're getting around a 8-10% capacity factor on a cloudy day in winter. Sounds pretty good to me especially if you're somewhere like NY. No. This is Los Angeles. And this happens every day, not in winter. We might not have tons of rain, but we do have clouds up there all the time. Here's April of this year: https://i.imgur.com/8lYKImD.png https://i.imgur.com/8lYKImD.png > Also why 1.2TW? Because that's what we need. My model predicted a range between 900 GW and 1.4 TW. I could not confirm the accuracy of this model until recently. So, good news, don't take my word for it, here's Elon Musk confirming my number: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcI6FaaDp8g&t=3510s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcI6FaaDp8g&t=3510s I you want to argue against the 1.2 TW estimate, you need to argue against the guy who is, quite literally, pushing the EV industry forward. These numbers are real. I will admit that they are counterintuitive. I didn't understand how it would work until I took the time to create a reasonably realistic simulation model to try to answer the question. Most people think "just charge at night" or "just charge at work", not realizing that none of those are solutions. You need a tremendous amount of power (again, talking about energy is the wrong metric) to support a full EV fleet. Power we do not have. And what's needed isn't trivial at all. Even Elon mentions nuclear in that interview. He has to be careful because he can't scare people by painting a "this is impossible" picture. He knows the real numbers and he knows what it will take to get there. Policy and thinking has to get there eventually, because the dream is impossible given the current path. Even worse, if we start talking about electric air and ocean freight it could easily add another 1.2 TW requirement. This is easy to see when you consider there are over 60K merchant ships in the world and up to 15K sailing the oceans simultaneously. Each one of those ships is burning about 150 tons of bunker fuel per day. When we stop using oil for ground transport, we might have a situation where using bunker fuel will be impossible. Bunker fuel is, quite literally, the crap that is left after you extract all the other fuels and derivatives from oil. If you don't distill oil at the rate we do today, bunker-fuel powered ships will not have fuel. They will have to go electric. Which means a demand for power over and above what a full EV fleet would require. So, yeah, the 1.2 TW estimate might be two low, by a factor of two, if not three. Solar panels are just not going to make that happen.
- Schroedingersat 4y ago