4 ms·

That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western ec

That is not what's happening at all. China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and lots of other countries are currently building an alternative to western economy. These countries are where majority of the world population lives.

defrost 4y ago
Absolutely. China has a very public long standing policy of engaing in global economic colonialism via its "one belt | one road | silk road 2" strategy. China having less(?) to do with the USofA in no way translates to China withdrawing from the world - rumour has it there are many other countries other than the US.
- uejfiweun 4y ago
  The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. I don't think China will be able to simply swap out the US for Kazakhstan and these other 1B1R countries and throw in the towel. In fact, I just recently read that China is overhauling the entire program due to various failures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-11663961638 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-1166396163...
  - defrost 4y ago
    > The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. For now, imagine what a Trump second term might achieve, particularly given the real life example of Truss in the UK: > The past six weeks have been not so much a cautionary tale as much as a textbook example of what happens when political ideologues are let off the leash, allowed to shut out anyone with opposing views and given the keys to the kingdom ( Rob Harris, Sydney Morning Herald ) Your linked WSJ article indicates that China's plans are coming to roost sooner rather than later: > ... have left countries struggling to repay their debts to China. as this is pretty much the point of economic colonialism, just as the British once ended up with Hong Kong as an outpost for a century so too will China end up with a ring of outposts spanning the globe for a century forward, ideal for those distributed ground stations for its space programs coupled with duty free ports for trade.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  The belt and road 'strategy', in practice, meant Chinese companies using Chinese workers to build random bits of infrastructure (roads, ports, railways) in less-developed countries, after Chinese state agencies lent the money for them to those countries. The things built are mostly not well used (and unsuited to the local country, being designed to serve Chinese-licensed mines or similar), and the loans are looking fairly shaky. There's antipathy in the victim countries because the promised jobs for the locals never eventuated, or worse, they were hired and then sacked in short order. One commentator said something along the lines of "rather than 5-dimensional chess it looks more like financial naïveté, and a soft power disaster."
pempem 4y ago
Definitely. And trade agreements will/do favor this alignment more than before Still, the majority of educated labor flow is moving towards the US and China/Russia make it comparatively incredibly hard for immigrants to move btwn these locations. Moving between China and India would be difficult, whereas all of these countries generally can largely rely on English being their common language esp India and S Africa, where English is one of the national languages. I think limited ability to share labor/culture/etc will limit this alternative western economy and the US has not abdicated its position yet` If you're the best of the best in machine learning in China or India and are looking to make a move, or write a book...it'll likely be to the US and in English rather than to Brazil and in Portuguese.
- yogthos 4y ago
  >Still, the majority of educated labor flow is moving towards the US and China/Russia make it comparatively incredibly hard for immigrants to move btwn these locations. That's false as well First, China is already outpacing US in both quality and quantity of research https://physicsworld.com/a/china-overtakes-the-us-in-terms-of-research-quality-finds-study/ https://physicsworld.com/a/china-overtakes-the-us-in-terms-o... China is also outpacing US in number of STEM graduates now, many of top STEM universities in the world are now in China https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-is-fast-outpacing-u-s-stem-phd-growth/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-is-fast-outpac... This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone given that China has a strong education system that's free and a population of 1.4 billion people. Furthermore, there is already a huge brain drain happening from US to China thanks to xenophobic policies US has been enacting lately https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3196372/reverse-brain-drain-nasa-data-scientist-takes-job-china https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3196372/reve... China alone is a comparable population to US and Europe. Russia also has a strong education system inherited from USSR, and has some of the top tech talent. For example, companies like Yandex and VK managed to outcompete US companies like Google and Fb in Russia. This hasn't happened anywhere else in the world.
  - pempem 4y ago
    From your comments: - no debate on population and the ability to grow STEM graduates at a faster clip - no debate on the general availability of education - many folks debate whether there is enough innovation or space to execute on research that isn't in line with whatever the political stance is at the moment. This is a long debate and anyone with a proper understanding of US history can find many instances where the US government has also shut down innovation. That being said, foundational efforts that we all rely on daily have come from DARPA, NSA, CIA and other government funding sources and made it into global consumer goods This is from the physicsworld.com article you posted: "They found that 1.67% of papers with Chinese authors were in the top 1% most-cited articles in 2019 compared with 1.62% of papers with US authors." This is not what one would call "outpacing". To your other points re: Yandex and VK. I assume you know the below, but lets discuss: Russia has fully blocked its competitors and built in-country players as has China. Not quite the same as growing invasively the way FB, Insta, Whatsapp, Paypal etc have from an external position. The government has advantaged their own players, which is fine but not the same. This I can say from reading and from first-hand experience having worked on growing Paypal in Russia and other emerging markets.

defrost 4y ago

Absolutely. China has a very public long standing policy of engaing in global economic colonialism via its "one belt | one road | silk road 2" strategy. China having less(?) to do with the USofA in no way translates to China withdrawing from the world - rumour has it there are many other countries other than the US.

uejfiweun 4y ago
The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. I don't think China will be able to simply swap out the US for Kazakhstan and these other 1B1R countries and throw in the towel. In fact, I just recently read that China is overhauling the entire program due to various failures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-11663961638 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-1166396163...
- defrost 4y ago
  > The US is the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. For now, imagine what a Trump second term might achieve, particularly given the real life example of Truss in the UK: > The past six weeks have been not so much a cautionary tale as much as a textbook example of what happens when political ideologues are let off the leash, allowed to shut out anyone with opposing views and given the keys to the kingdom ( Rob Harris, Sydney Morning Herald ) Your linked WSJ article indicates that China's plans are coming to roost sooner rather than later: > ... have left countries struggling to repay their debts to China. as this is pretty much the point of economic colonialism, just as the British once ended up with Hong Kong as an outpost for a century so too will China end up with a ring of outposts spanning the globe for a century forward, ideal for those distributed ground stations for its space programs coupled with duty free ports for trade.
tuatoru 4y ago
The belt and road 'strategy', in practice, meant Chinese companies using Chinese workers to build random bits of infrastructure (roads, ports, railways) in less-developed countries, after Chinese state agencies lent the money for them to those countries. The things built are mostly not well used (and unsuited to the local country, being designed to serve Chinese-licensed mines or similar), and the loans are looking fairly shaky. There's antipathy in the victim countries because the promised jobs for the locals never eventuated, or worse, they were hired and then sacked in short order. One commentator said something along the lines of "rather than 5-dimensional chess it looks more like financial naïveté, and a soft power disaster."

pempem 4y ago

Definitely. And trade agreements will/do favor this alignment more than before Still, the majority of educated labor flow is moving towards the US and China/Russia make it comparatively incredibly hard for immigrants to move btwn these locations. Moving between China and India would be difficult, whereas all of these countries generally can largely rely on English being their common language esp India and S Africa, where English is one of the national languages. I think limited ability to share labor/culture/etc will limit this alternative western economy and the US has not abdicated its position yet` If you're the best of the best in machine learning in China or India and are looking to make a move, or write a book...it'll likely be to the US and in English rather than to Brazil and in Portuguese.

yogthos 4y ago
>Still, the majority of educated labor flow is moving towards the US and China/Russia make it comparatively incredibly hard for immigrants to move btwn these locations. That's false as well First, China is already outpacing US in both quality and quantity of research https://physicsworld.com/a/china-overtakes-the-us-in-terms-of-research-quality-finds-study/ https://physicsworld.com/a/china-overtakes-the-us-in-terms-o... China is also outpacing US in number of STEM graduates now, many of top STEM universities in the world are now in China https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-is-fast-outpacing-u-s-stem-phd-growth/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-is-fast-outpac... This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone given that China has a strong education system that's free and a population of 1.4 billion people. Furthermore, there is already a huge brain drain happening from US to China thanks to xenophobic policies US has been enacting lately https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3196372/reverse-brain-drain-nasa-data-scientist-takes-job-china https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3196372/reve... China alone is a comparable population to US and Europe. Russia also has a strong education system inherited from USSR, and has some of the top tech talent. For example, companies like Yandex and VK managed to outcompete US companies like Google and Fb in Russia. This hasn't happened anywhere else in the world.
- pempem 4y ago
  From your comments: - no debate on population and the ability to grow STEM graduates at a faster clip - no debate on the general availability of education - many folks debate whether there is enough innovation or space to execute on research that isn't in line with whatever the political stance is at the moment. This is a long debate and anyone with a proper understanding of US history can find many instances where the US government has also shut down innovation. That being said, foundational efforts that we all rely on daily have come from DARPA, NSA, CIA and other government funding sources and made it into global consumer goods This is from the physicsworld.com article you posted: "They found that 1.67% of papers with Chinese authors were in the top 1% most-cited articles in 2019 compared with 1.62% of papers with US authors." This is not what one would call "outpacing". To your other points re: Yandex and VK. I assume you know the below, but lets discuss: Russia has fully blocked its competitors and built in-country players as has China. Not quite the same as growing invasively the way FB, Insta, Whatsapp, Paypal etc have from an external position. The government has advantaged their own players, which is fine but not the same. This I can say from reading and from first-hand experience having worked on growing Paypal in Russia and other emerging markets.