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Since this is HN, here is a book recommendation: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan I’m going t

Since this is HN, here is a book recommendation: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan I’m going to add the usual disclaimers here about everything that comes with listening to a guy who has been predicting doom for a decade. He is very entertaining though and he has some unique insights and some unusual data comparisons - it’s fun to read. To be fair, he did predict events in Ukraine a few weeks before they happened [1]. That counts for as much credibility as one can have with a title of “geopolitical strategist” [1] Jump to 7:45 https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c https://youtu.be/UA-jOLF2T4c

mysecretaccount 4y ago
Around February 2022, I consumed every piece of Zeihan-related content I could find online. He is very entertaining but I had to give up on him because he plays a bit fast and loose with facts and makes pretty wild predictions. As an example, early in the Russia-Ukraine war, he claimed that Russia wanted to secure one of the geographical gateways into the country and could be expected to invade Poland and Romania circa this coming winter. He said that these gateways have been historically important for Russia's defense for hundreds of years and that they want to defend them before their population becomes too old to bear enough soldiers to take them. This is exemplary of both the good/bad with Zeihan: - He is entertaining and has unusual takes, as you said. - He tends to have an essentialist worldview: Russia is obsessed with its own topography so it invaded Ukraine, China is isolationist so Xi doesn't care about what goes on in other countries, etc. - He is a bit of a state department shill (probably necessary for his career, he seems to make a good amount from speaking gigs for these people). - He fixates on age demographics and draws many (probably too many) conclusions from them. Big props to him for introducing me to the population pyramid though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid - He stopped making this claim around ~summer and I'm sure will never reckon with the fact that he sincerely said he thought Russia would invade a NATO country within a year in early-mid 2022, on multiple podcasts. I have heard him spout too much nonsense for me to listen to consistently at this point but I still check in on him just to hear what he has to say regarding major world events (like the NS1/2 pipeline bombings).
civilized 4y ago
Biden was warning about a Ukraine invasion a few weeks before it happened too. So Biden is equally a geopolitical guru.

mysecretaccount 4y ago

Around February 2022, I consumed every piece of Zeihan-related content I could find online. He is very entertaining but I had to give up on him because he plays a bit fast and loose with facts and makes pretty wild predictions. As an example, early in the Russia-Ukraine war, he claimed that Russia wanted to secure one of the geographical gateways into the country and could be expected to invade Poland and Romania circa this coming winter. He said that these gateways have been historically important for Russia's defense for hundreds of years and that they want to defend them before their population becomes too old to bear enough soldiers to take them. This is exemplary of both the good/bad with Zeihan: - He is entertaining and has unusual takes, as you said. - He tends to have an essentialist worldview: Russia is obsessed with its own topography so it invaded Ukraine, China is isolationist so Xi doesn't care about what goes on in other countries, etc. - He is a bit of a state department shill (probably necessary for his career, he seems to make a good amount from speaking gigs for these people). - He fixates on age demographics and draws many (probably too many) conclusions from them. Big props to him for introducing me to the population pyramid though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid - He stopped making this claim around ~summer and I'm sure will never reckon with the fact that he sincerely said he thought Russia would invade a NATO country within a year in early-mid 2022, on multiple podcasts. I have heard him spout too much nonsense for me to listen to consistently at this point but I still check in on him just to hear what he has to say regarding major world events (like the NS1/2 pipeline bombings).

civilized 4y ago

Biden was warning about a Ukraine invasion a few weeks before it happened too. So Biden is equally a geopolitical guru.