IMO nuclear game theory especially around Launch on Warning / immediate retaliation is going to change in the coming years as everyone builds up conventional gl

IMO nuclear game theory especially around Launch on Warning / immediate retaliation is going to change in the coming years as everyone builds up conventional global strike missiles. Decision makers will be incentivized to at least wait for confirmation before ending the world. But otherwise I'm much more pessimistic about narrative around "retaliation" because I think when shit hits fan, MAD doesn't just extends to nations trading nukes but eradicating their entire alliance network that can help rebuild as well. US cold war nuke plans on USSR included nuking PRC just in case. USSR was going to make sure Europe was a wasteland that couldn't help wasteland US rebuild. On paper US/USSR had thousands of nukes because you need multiple for counter-force on harden targets. On secret paper, it's counter value your entire rival block to ensure anyone who can be potential threat after, aren't.