The only times a stochastic model works is if the reality you are trying to simulate aligns well with this approach. Poking fun at the oversimplifications we m

The only times a stochastic model works is if the reality you are trying to simulate aligns well with this approach. Poking fun at the oversimplifications we make in Physics just to be able to put some numbers on paper, I often say that a cow is never a uniform sphere of milk one meter in diameter. We can do math with such a simplified model, however, believing this to always match reality would be a mistake. In another comment I gave the example of hurricane evacuation day/week in Florida. This is a clear case of the distribution not being anywhere close to normal. The average, in that and other cases, is absolutely meaningless and useless for peak power demand prediction. The median might be better. Or, better yet, doing the math with thousands of data points picked from a reasonably similar distribution. In business forecasting this flaw of the averages has gained deeper understanding as something that could result in seriously flawed predictions (for example: inventory or capital requirements). Those who have gained this insight will usually resort to the use of suitably distributed multiple data point calculations to drive forecasts. This isn't different at all in the case of EV's and related fields. Well, it shouldn't be.