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You seem to see a high probabilitt that Russia will do nothing. How much of your income would you like to bet on you being right?
by data_maan 4y ago
You seem to see a high probabilitt that Russia will do nothing. How much of your income would you like to bet on you being right?
- mikewarot 4y agoI was trying to highlight likely failure mechanisms that could occur if the order were given. I strongly believe that only a small percentage of their nukes would work (2-10%)[1], so a solo launch is less than likely to work. However if things to escalate, that's still 120-600 detonations if they were to the 6,000 weapons in their stockpile.[2] In which case, you wouldn't be able to collect if I was wrong [1] Guestimate -- based on no provable facts or sources [2] https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-russia-have-in-2022 https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how...