> Russian state of it's arsenal is likely going to be worse Up until recently Russia was sending up American astronauts on Soyuz rockets to the ISS because the

> Russian state of it's arsenal is likely going to be worse Up until recently Russia was sending up American astronauts on Soyuz rockets to the ISS because they had a reliable system (based on the R7 ICBM) and we didn't. > and the actual ability of the US to intercept is likely going to be better. Intercepting ICBMs is orders of magnitudes more difficult than intercepting theater weapons like scuds because of the velocities involved. This simulation was of 10% of each nations arsenal. If Russia launches 20% of their arsenal then it should make up for any amount of failure (and interception is likely to be negligible). Worries me that we have so much motivated thinking trying to discount the risks of nuclear war these days. That's how you wind up in a nuclear war just like the one suggested here.