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The U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine

5 points by app4soft 4y ago

app4soft 4y ago
Thread on Twitter.[0] [0] https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1581983273625956354 https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1581983273625956354
stevenalowe 4y ago
Every free country in Europe should be arming Ukraine also. And preparing for their own invasion/attack.
- mysecretaccount 4y ago
  I am highly skeptical of the idea that Russia is likely to invade other countries in Europe (with the exception of maybe Moldova). Even if we ignore Article 5, it is just not plausible that Russia would attempt an invasion of an additional country when it needs to "partially" mobilize its populous to even attempt to hold on to the territories it once occupied in eastern Ukraine.
  - obscurette 4y ago
    I'm not. There are countless reasons why this or that move would make sense for Russians. For example just to spread chaos and keep the world and its resources divided and force Europe into some kind of deal. Especially if they have not much to loose. For Russians it's not a gentlemens' chess or card game. Or rather is, but the one played in russian prisons – if russian criminal looses, he punches opponent into face until opponent admits that it was a draw. After the game friends of the criminal visit the opponent and turns out that it wasn't a draw either. Disclaimer: I was forced to spend about half of my life in Soviet Union.
    - mysecretaccount 4y ago
      > There are countless reasons why this or that move would make sense for Russians. For example just to spread chaos and keep the world and its resources divided and force Europe into some kind of deal. This is not enough justification for why this is plausible. Russia miscalculated in Ukraine (though even the US thought they would perform better[1]) but it is not suicidal. Invading a NATO country is a suicidal move for Russia. [1] https://theintercept.com/2022/10/05/russia-ukraine-putin-cia/ https://theintercept.com/2022/10/05/russia-ukraine-putin-cia...
  - skissane 4y ago
    You are sceptical because Ukraine has turned into such a quagmire for Russia. But, without Western support, Russia's attempted invasion of Ukraine would have been much more successful. If Russia had succeeded in Ukraine, that might have tempted them to try invading other neighbouring countries. Other countries have been providing assistance to Ukraine, not just out of the kindness of their hearts, but in order to prevent a Russian victory which might encourage Russia to engage in further offensives.
    - mysecretaccount 4y ago
      > You are sceptical [sic] because Ukraine has turned into such a quagmire for Russia. To be clear: this is exactly what I said, yes.
      - skissane 4y ago
        You don’t seem to get my point though - it only has turned into a quagmire for Russia because other countries have feared the thing of which you are sceptical. It is like complaining the medicine is useless because you don’t have symptoms, when it is only because of the medicine that you don’t have them. (And “sceptical” shouldn’t be “[sic]” because it is correct spelling in many non-US dialects of English, including my own.)
        mysecretaccount 4y ago
        > You don’t seem to get my point though - it only has turned into a quagmire for Russia because other countries have feared the thing of which you are sceptical. It is like complaining the medicine is useless because you don’t have symptoms, when it is only because of the medicine that you don’t have them. What did I write that made you think that I think that the West's backing of Ukraine has not been essential for Ukraine's defense/Russia's failure? My claim is that Ukraine is an example of why it is absurd to expect Russia to invade NATO countries. If Russia cannot even overtake NATO-backed non-NATO countries, no one should reasonably expect it to invade NATO-proper countries.
  - stevenalowe 4y ago
    Russia doesn’t have to invade other countries yet, they just have to keep other countries out of the fray. I’m wondering why Russian spies are flying drones around infrastructure sites in other countries. I’m also convinced that Russia covets land and does not care about people, so scorched-earth tactics seem more likely. Interrupting friendly infrastructure (covertly, ideally) at the same time would delay reprisals. I hope I’m wrong.
    - mysecretaccount 4y ago
      A Russian invasion of a NATO country would be suicidal. Russia may "covet land" but it is not suicidal. That said I share your concern about Russian attacks on infrastructure.
  - Mikeb85 4y ago
    > I am highly skeptical of the idea that Russia is likely to invade other countries in Europe Why? They said it's their goal and what they are constantly threatening... Russians have also been arrested spying with drones in Scandinavia, they sabotaged a pipeline and trains in Germany, etc.. They might not be currently capable BECAUSE we're arming Ukraine but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't if they could... And if we let up it just means they re-arm and invade later...
    - mysecretaccount 4y ago
      > They might not be currently capable BECAUSE we're arming Ukraine but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't if they could... The botched invasion of Ukraine by Russia shows that it was never capable of successfully invading a NATO country (though we hardly needed the example to know this). It is conventionally outmatched by NATO and you cannot take a country using nukes. With Sweden/Finland joining NATO, there is no candidate for a successful invasion except possibly the one I mentioned (Moldova).

5 points by app4soft 4y ago

Thread on Twitter.[0] [0] https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1581983273625956354 https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1581983273625956354

stevenalowe 4y ago

Every free country in Europe should be arming Ukraine also. And preparing for their own invasion/attack.

mysecretaccount 4y ago
I am highly skeptical of the idea that Russia is likely to invade other countries in Europe (with the exception of maybe Moldova). Even if we ignore Article 5, it is just not plausible that Russia would attempt an invasion of an additional country when it needs to "partially" mobilize its populous to even attempt to hold on to the territories it once occupied in eastern Ukraine.
- obscurette 4y ago
  I'm not. There are countless reasons why this or that move would make sense for Russians. For example just to spread chaos and keep the world and its resources divided and force Europe into some kind of deal. Especially if they have not much to loose. For Russians it's not a gentlemens' chess or card game. Or rather is, but the one played in russian prisons – if russian criminal looses, he punches opponent into face until opponent admits that it was a draw. After the game friends of the criminal visit the opponent and turns out that it wasn't a draw either. Disclaimer: I was forced to spend about half of my life in Soviet Union.
  - mysecretaccount 4y ago
    > There are countless reasons why this or that move would make sense for Russians. For example just to spread chaos and keep the world and its resources divided and force Europe into some kind of deal. This is not enough justification for why this is plausible. Russia miscalculated in Ukraine (though even the US thought they would perform better[1]) but it is not suicidal. Invading a NATO country is a suicidal move for Russia. [1] https://theintercept.com/2022/10/05/russia-ukraine-putin-cia/ https://theintercept.com/2022/10/05/russia-ukraine-putin-cia...
- skissane 4y ago
  You are sceptical because Ukraine has turned into such a quagmire for Russia. But, without Western support, Russia's attempted invasion of Ukraine would have been much more successful. If Russia had succeeded in Ukraine, that might have tempted them to try invading other neighbouring countries. Other countries have been providing assistance to Ukraine, not just out of the kindness of their hearts, but in order to prevent a Russian victory which might encourage Russia to engage in further offensives.
  - mysecretaccount 4y ago
    > You are sceptical [sic] because Ukraine has turned into such a quagmire for Russia. To be clear: this is exactly what I said, yes.
    - skissane 4y ago
      You don’t seem to get my point though - it only has turned into a quagmire for Russia because other countries have feared the thing of which you are sceptical. It is like complaining the medicine is useless because you don’t have symptoms, when it is only because of the medicine that you don’t have them. (And “sceptical” shouldn’t be “[sic]” because it is correct spelling in many non-US dialects of English, including my own.)
      - mysecretaccount 4y ago
        > You don’t seem to get my point though - it only has turned into a quagmire for Russia because other countries have feared the thing of which you are sceptical. It is like complaining the medicine is useless because you don’t have symptoms, when it is only because of the medicine that you don’t have them. What did I write that made you think that I think that the West's backing of Ukraine has not been essential for Ukraine's defense/Russia's failure? My claim is that Ukraine is an example of why it is absurd to expect Russia to invade NATO countries. If Russia cannot even overtake NATO-backed non-NATO countries, no one should reasonably expect it to invade NATO-proper countries.
- stevenalowe 4y ago
  Russia doesn’t have to invade other countries yet, they just have to keep other countries out of the fray. I’m wondering why Russian spies are flying drones around infrastructure sites in other countries. I’m also convinced that Russia covets land and does not care about people, so scorched-earth tactics seem more likely. Interrupting friendly infrastructure (covertly, ideally) at the same time would delay reprisals. I hope I’m wrong.
  - mysecretaccount 4y ago
    A Russian invasion of a NATO country would be suicidal. Russia may "covet land" but it is not suicidal. That said I share your concern about Russian attacks on infrastructure.
- Mikeb85 4y ago
  > I am highly skeptical of the idea that Russia is likely to invade other countries in Europe Why? They said it's their goal and what they are constantly threatening... Russians have also been arrested spying with drones in Scandinavia, they sabotaged a pipeline and trains in Germany, etc.. They might not be currently capable BECAUSE we're arming Ukraine but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't if they could... And if we let up it just means they re-arm and invade later...
  - mysecretaccount 4y ago
    > They might not be currently capable BECAUSE we're arming Ukraine but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't if they could... The botched invasion of Ukraine by Russia shows that it was never capable of successfully invading a NATO country (though we hardly needed the example to know this). It is conventionally outmatched by NATO and you cannot take a country using nukes. With Sweden/Finland joining NATO, there is no candidate for a successful invasion except possibly the one I mentioned (Moldova).