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> On Twitter, Reddit, and real life, the majority of people keep complaining about crime, drugs, homelessness. Maybe I’m misunderstanding your comment but in t

> On Twitter, Reddit, and real life, the majority of people keep complaining about crime, drugs, homelessness. Maybe I’m misunderstanding your comment but in the US, these issues are the result of conservative politics.

wincy 4y ago
Which is why there’s so much violent crime in conservative bastions like Philadelphia, Chicago, New York, and Baltimore.
- paulcole 4y ago
  Think of it like climate change. The weather today is the result of poor decision making 30, 40, 50+ years ago. Additionally, politics and policies exist at the national level as well and can influence what happens in even liberal cities.
  - thegrimmest 4y ago
    I'm not sure that's true at all. There have been many demonstrably effective short-term crime reduction strategies. Broken window theory being the most famous example. Shockingly, arresting and confining violent antisocial people reduces violence in society.
    - paulcole 4y ago
      Well as long as you’re not sure that’s good enough for me. I retract what I said.
    - themitigating 4y ago
      https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/22/nypd-fewer-arrests-reduce-crime-new-york https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/22/nypd-fewer-a... The ‘clearances paradox’: could less policing actually reduce gun violence in New York? Your over simplifying the complex reasons behind crime.
      - thegrimmest 4y ago
        I think you're oversimplifying the complex nature of policing. If we want peaceful, stable, societies we should model our policing systems on the places that most effectively deliver peace and stability. Two notable examples being Israel and Japan. Both places give police wide latitude to accomplish their goals and punish criminals harshly. Is Israeli policing discriminatory against Arabs? Yes. Is it effective? Also yes. Is Japanese prison inhumane by US standards? Yes. Is it effective in preventing the establishment of a criminal culture? Also yes. Violent antisocial behaviour presents itself in a small percentage of young (mostly) males. It can be predicted as early as age 4 and effective intervention is very difficult. Most people who present with it tend to age out of the behaviour by around 30. Therefore the only effective strategy to protect the rest of us from this tiny fraction of people is to confine them until they age out. This is basically what our criminal justice system does, however imperfectly. If we were to design a system eyes-open, knowing these constraints, with the goal of minimizing violent crime, we'd: 1. Enact age-based confinement - teenagers who present with violent antisocialism are very likely to reoffend in their 20s. Violent teenagers and young adults should be confined until they've aged out. 2. Structure prison culture - prison should not be crime university. Criminals should not be permitted to form a culture. Violent antisocialism should not be tolerated in prison. Instead they should be given the tools to find a legitimate place in society upon their eventual release. Japan does this quite well. 3. Seal records after release - criminal records relating to youth-associated violent antisocialism should be sealed. People we release should have a clear path to reintegration without discrimination.
        themitigating 4y ago
        What if we model it after nordic countries which seems to be the complete opposite
        thegrimmest 4y ago
        I actually think nordic countries do 2. and 3. quite well, and their crime rate has risen significantly due to the large number of migrants. The baseline number of violent antisocial people in a society also does vary - but avoiding the creation of these people is different that dealing with the ones who already exist.
  - themitigating 4y ago
    This doesn't include the last two years, which I'm sure have gone up, but the crime rate for most types of crimes in NYC has gone down significantly for the last 50 years. https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm
- moviewatcher333 4y ago
  And why rural Appalachia and small, highly religious towns across America are absolutely ravaged by meth and fentanyl and the crime around it, which you really should not ignore. You’ll find a lot of “lock em up and throw away the key! … But not my son. Or my daughter. Or my nephew and his children and my former coworker. Or my pastor’s children. But everyone else, yeah”
  - LawTalkingGuy 4y ago
    Overly-liberal cities (SF, Vancouver, LA, etc) are killing far more of their citizens with failed drug policies than COVID, and with circumstance they've engineered such as giving extra "safe" fentanyl to people, telling dealers they won't be arrested, and never institutionalizing against their wishes. The difference between approaches isn't "lock them up / don't" or "my kids / their kids". It's not a left/right or conservative/liberal divide, it's on another axis - more about the philosophical difference of personal vs group responsibility and meaning vs nihilism. We need to look at the path these front running cities are taking, and where everyone else will be dragged, to see the difference. The same cities which refuse to lock up a violent junkie will lock up a parent who complains too loudly to the school board. It's not that they aren't authoritarian, often more than conservatives. It's that they don't feel there's any degradation of the individual which is ultimately wrong. Like, an individual can "choose" to be a street whore and die painfully from heroin. That's valid. This is how all junkies eventually live and die, and without a strong moral consensus that this is all bad - for the junkie and society and that we must stop it, you can't make progress on the base issues. Vancouver will leave a junkie in their own vomit, to continue hitting the drugs that almost killed them, because "nobody should be committed against their will" but it will fine or confine an otherwise fit college student who drinks in public, or who commits any of the other offenses the junkie is committing (littering, starting fires on the sidewalk, having a violent dog, openly carrying a weapon, and so forth). The junkie has somehow "chosen" his or her role and now it's a beautiful thing, like a butterfly, that should be left to unfold, unmolested, in the parks. Portugal, often held out as a utopia for drug users, has a "not even once in public" policy where they will jail you and assign you to a multi-year rehab program. They know nobody wants to die in their own vomit, in the street. We need to regain the compassion we've thrown away in the "everything is okay!" anti-conservative backlash such that we can help people in obvious distress. Once we all look at things that way we can see that our policies won't actually be too different, or rather, it doesn't matter if they are and we can work in a spirit of cooperation from different angles rather than fighting about the issue itself. Ultimately, Portugal is a more liberal society (for drug users) than Vancouver.
- themitigating 4y ago
  Maybe you should check the crime rate in other cities. Also consider Covid and the economy as a more probable factor in an increase in crime. Here's just one set of statistics-Most Murders 2022 St. Louis, MO (69.4) Baltimore, MD (51.1) New Orleans, LA (40.6) Detroit, MI (39.7) Cleveland, OH (33.7) Las Vegas, NV (31.4) Kansas City, MO (31.2) Memphis, TN (27.1) https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-with-most-murders https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-wi...

wincy 4y ago

Which is why there’s so much violent crime in conservative bastions like Philadelphia, Chicago, New York, and Baltimore.

paulcole 4y ago
Think of it like climate change. The weather today is the result of poor decision making 30, 40, 50+ years ago. Additionally, politics and policies exist at the national level as well and can influence what happens in even liberal cities.
- thegrimmest 4y ago
  I'm not sure that's true at all. There have been many demonstrably effective short-term crime reduction strategies. Broken window theory being the most famous example. Shockingly, arresting and confining violent antisocial people reduces violence in society.
  - paulcole 4y ago
    Well as long as you’re not sure that’s good enough for me. I retract what I said.
  - themitigating 4y ago
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/22/nypd-fewer-arrests-reduce-crime-new-york https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/22/nypd-fewer-a... The ‘clearances paradox’: could less policing actually reduce gun violence in New York? Your over simplifying the complex reasons behind crime.
    - thegrimmest 4y ago
      I think you're oversimplifying the complex nature of policing. If we want peaceful, stable, societies we should model our policing systems on the places that most effectively deliver peace and stability. Two notable examples being Israel and Japan. Both places give police wide latitude to accomplish their goals and punish criminals harshly. Is Israeli policing discriminatory against Arabs? Yes. Is it effective? Also yes. Is Japanese prison inhumane by US standards? Yes. Is it effective in preventing the establishment of a criminal culture? Also yes. Violent antisocial behaviour presents itself in a small percentage of young (mostly) males. It can be predicted as early as age 4 and effective intervention is very difficult. Most people who present with it tend to age out of the behaviour by around 30. Therefore the only effective strategy to protect the rest of us from this tiny fraction of people is to confine them until they age out. This is basically what our criminal justice system does, however imperfectly. If we were to design a system eyes-open, knowing these constraints, with the goal of minimizing violent crime, we'd: 1. Enact age-based confinement - teenagers who present with violent antisocialism are very likely to reoffend in their 20s. Violent teenagers and young adults should be confined until they've aged out. 2. Structure prison culture - prison should not be crime university. Criminals should not be permitted to form a culture. Violent antisocialism should not be tolerated in prison. Instead they should be given the tools to find a legitimate place in society upon their eventual release. Japan does this quite well. 3. Seal records after release - criminal records relating to youth-associated violent antisocialism should be sealed. People we release should have a clear path to reintegration without discrimination.
      - themitigating 4y ago
        What if we model it after nordic countries which seems to be the complete opposite
        thegrimmest 4y ago
        I actually think nordic countries do 2. and 3. quite well, and their crime rate has risen significantly due to the large number of migrants. The baseline number of violent antisocial people in a society also does vary - but avoiding the creation of these people is different that dealing with the ones who already exist.
- themitigating 4y ago
  This doesn't include the last two years, which I'm sure have gone up, but the crime rate for most types of crimes in NYC has gone down significantly for the last 50 years. https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm
moviewatcher333 4y ago
And why rural Appalachia and small, highly religious towns across America are absolutely ravaged by meth and fentanyl and the crime around it, which you really should not ignore. You’ll find a lot of “lock em up and throw away the key! … But not my son. Or my daughter. Or my nephew and his children and my former coworker. Or my pastor’s children. But everyone else, yeah”
- LawTalkingGuy 4y ago
  Overly-liberal cities (SF, Vancouver, LA, etc) are killing far more of their citizens with failed drug policies than COVID, and with circumstance they've engineered such as giving extra "safe" fentanyl to people, telling dealers they won't be arrested, and never institutionalizing against their wishes. The difference between approaches isn't "lock them up / don't" or "my kids / their kids". It's not a left/right or conservative/liberal divide, it's on another axis - more about the philosophical difference of personal vs group responsibility and meaning vs nihilism. We need to look at the path these front running cities are taking, and where everyone else will be dragged, to see the difference. The same cities which refuse to lock up a violent junkie will lock up a parent who complains too loudly to the school board. It's not that they aren't authoritarian, often more than conservatives. It's that they don't feel there's any degradation of the individual which is ultimately wrong. Like, an individual can "choose" to be a street whore and die painfully from heroin. That's valid. This is how all junkies eventually live and die, and without a strong moral consensus that this is all bad - for the junkie and society and that we must stop it, you can't make progress on the base issues. Vancouver will leave a junkie in their own vomit, to continue hitting the drugs that almost killed them, because "nobody should be committed against their will" but it will fine or confine an otherwise fit college student who drinks in public, or who commits any of the other offenses the junkie is committing (littering, starting fires on the sidewalk, having a violent dog, openly carrying a weapon, and so forth). The junkie has somehow "chosen" his or her role and now it's a beautiful thing, like a butterfly, that should be left to unfold, unmolested, in the parks. Portugal, often held out as a utopia for drug users, has a "not even once in public" policy where they will jail you and assign you to a multi-year rehab program. They know nobody wants to die in their own vomit, in the street. We need to regain the compassion we've thrown away in the "everything is okay!" anti-conservative backlash such that we can help people in obvious distress. Once we all look at things that way we can see that our policies won't actually be too different, or rather, it doesn't matter if they are and we can work in a spirit of cooperation from different angles rather than fighting about the issue itself. Ultimately, Portugal is a more liberal society (for drug users) than Vancouver.
themitigating 4y ago
Maybe you should check the crime rate in other cities. Also consider Covid and the economy as a more probable factor in an increase in crime. Here's just one set of statistics-Most Murders 2022 St. Louis, MO (69.4) Baltimore, MD (51.1) New Orleans, LA (40.6) Detroit, MI (39.7) Cleveland, OH (33.7) Las Vegas, NV (31.4) Kansas City, MO (31.2) Memphis, TN (27.1) https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-with-most-murders https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-wi...