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With the 10s of thousands of applications top universities get, there isn't enough time to evaluate the "complex, multi-dimensional entities" behind each applic

With the 10s of thousands of applications top universities get, there isn't enough time to evaluate the "complex, multi-dimensional entities" behind each application. At University of Washington, applications are not reviewed by "admissions people". They hire temporary workers (grad students, retirees etc.) to review applications, and give them 8 minutes per application [1]. And this is typical of most universities. [1] https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/a-look-inside-admissions-at-the-university-of-washi/281-85f98fa9-ca4c-46de-a720-02dc415dddd7 https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/a-look-inside-admis...

kenjackson 4y ago
But at highly competitive schools you still have several times more students with 1500 SATs than you have available spots. So you eventually need to use holistic judgement anyways.
- bradleyjg 4y ago
  They could just admit at random from among that group. What would be the downside?
  - kenjackson 4y ago
    So no cutoff, just an SAT score? And then a cutoff based on that? What about GPA? Weighted GPA? AP tests matter? Creating a cure for COVID matter? I think for the very top schools they care about the intangibles. For mid-tier schools the SAT cutoff lottery is fine. But the cut off is probably like 1150, and these arguments aren’t about those schools.
    - bradleyjg 4y ago
      Just an SAT cutoff. Maybe cure Covid kid ends up at Vassar instead of Princeton. So what? Will his life be over? Will the US decline into irrelevance?
      - kenjackson 4y ago
        That’s an interesting race to the bottom for those schools. They’d end up with kids who basically ditched studying advanced math, physics, research, etc and just a lot of kids who prepped for the SAT for four years.
        bradleyjg 4y ago
        The “advanced math, physics, research, etc” in high school is all just college admissions prep too. When you major in math you have to take an analysis sequence starting at the beginning because AP calculus isn’t actually math. It’s just memorizing and learning to execute some math related algorithms. It’s all just signaling. Let’s be open about that instead of hiding the ball.
        kenjackson 4y ago
        Again there’s levels to this. Harvard Math 55 is filled with exceptionally strong math students. I’m a 1500 SAT student, but not a Math 55 student. Them not being able to differentiate these classes of students seems problematic.
        bradleyjg 4y ago
        Problematic is such a vague word. Connect the dots for me. The top N schools in the nation, collectively representing enough seats to account for 5% of SAT takers, all change their admissions policies to select randomly among applicants in the top 5% of SAT scorers. After ten years of these policies being in place we will likely see the following negative effects:
        kenjackson 4y ago
        Here are some of the connection. The SAT is a basic test where strategy can come into great affect. And honestly, it's surprising how little some of the strategy is talked about -- but I suspect amongst the wealthy it's well known. But back to the topic. A 1550 on the SAT says very little about your mathematical ability. The test just doesn't measure your ability to do more than basic algebra and has no real measure of writing ability. And honestly probably has a somewhat inverse relationship on your ability to read nuance into text (which is one of the first strategies I teach -- this isn't English class -- there's no nuance in anything you read on the SAT). On advanced college math -- kids who are actually good at math likely have a high math SAT score, but their verbal score can vary a fair bit. I regularly see kids with 1400-1450 SATs, with perfect math scores who are Math Olympiad stars. The likely end game of this though is that schools REALLY start teaching to the test. Why even offer AP tests if they don't help admission? Why even teach biology or physics at all? Simply teach SAT math, reading comprehension (which is comprehension of the worst kind) and what the SAT calls writing. So no more calculus or statistics. Even most of what is taught in algebra II is thrown out the window. Today the 95%ile of SATs is around 1440. It would probably move up to around 1550, once schools teach to that test year around for four years. And any actually advanced undergrad courses are tossed because they can't get enough students to fill them. And other countries will realize that the US left a huge gap -- the ability get students who strong in like areas and train them. They'll target the best math students, the best programmers, the best artists, etc... Interestingly, the best meritocracy we have in society is sports. And in sports they recruit holistically -- that is they don't exclusively use HS stats (these are generally worthless) or combine numbers (these have some value, but limited). They use scouting services. And the very best athletes tend to congregate in programs that will develop them the best. Many hold up sports as a great example of meritocracy, yet it actually doesn't rely solely on measurables (in fact they are moving further and further from it). What sports has though is a good objective function. What is the objective function of school? Answering that question will greatly help determine what the best path forward is.
  - 0x445442 4y ago
    This is genius and would probably accurately capture the overall demographic makeup of that group of 1500 SAT applicants.
  - hotpotamus 4y ago
    That's my suggestion - who wants a school full of unlucky kids?
    - ctoth 4y ago
      Okay, great Ringworld reference.
      - hotpotamus 4y ago
        I'm not sure if you mean the book or the game (I've only read the book) but I think it might go back further than that. But maybe I got it from there.
CharlieDigital 4y ago
It's not that it's not possible but rather we've simply been so lazy that we don't have the right heuristics. No; I don't have the answer. I'm not an economist nor an admissions expert. But I've qualified and hired software engineers over the years and my process never focuses on a score or outcome of an assessment.

kenjackson 4y ago

But at highly competitive schools you still have several times more students with 1500 SATs than you have available spots. So you eventually need to use holistic judgement anyways.

bradleyjg 4y ago
They could just admit at random from among that group. What would be the downside?
- kenjackson 4y ago
  So no cutoff, just an SAT score? And then a cutoff based on that? What about GPA? Weighted GPA? AP tests matter? Creating a cure for COVID matter? I think for the very top schools they care about the intangibles. For mid-tier schools the SAT cutoff lottery is fine. But the cut off is probably like 1150, and these arguments aren’t about those schools.
  - bradleyjg 4y ago
    Just an SAT cutoff. Maybe cure Covid kid ends up at Vassar instead of Princeton. So what? Will his life be over? Will the US decline into irrelevance?
    - kenjackson 4y ago
      That’s an interesting race to the bottom for those schools. They’d end up with kids who basically ditched studying advanced math, physics, research, etc and just a lot of kids who prepped for the SAT for four years.
      - bradleyjg 4y ago
        The “advanced math, physics, research, etc” in high school is all just college admissions prep too. When you major in math you have to take an analysis sequence starting at the beginning because AP calculus isn’t actually math. It’s just memorizing and learning to execute some math related algorithms. It’s all just signaling. Let’s be open about that instead of hiding the ball.
        kenjackson 4y ago
        Again there’s levels to this. Harvard Math 55 is filled with exceptionally strong math students. I’m a 1500 SAT student, but not a Math 55 student. Them not being able to differentiate these classes of students seems problematic.
        bradleyjg 4y ago
        Problematic is such a vague word. Connect the dots for me. The top N schools in the nation, collectively representing enough seats to account for 5% of SAT takers, all change their admissions policies to select randomly among applicants in the top 5% of SAT scorers. After ten years of these policies being in place we will likely see the following negative effects:
        kenjackson 4y ago
        Here are some of the connection. The SAT is a basic test where strategy can come into great affect. And honestly, it's surprising how little some of the strategy is talked about -- but I suspect amongst the wealthy it's well known. But back to the topic. A 1550 on the SAT says very little about your mathematical ability. The test just doesn't measure your ability to do more than basic algebra and has no real measure of writing ability. And honestly probably has a somewhat inverse relationship on your ability to read nuance into text (which is one of the first strategies I teach -- this isn't English class -- there's no nuance in anything you read on the SAT). On advanced college math -- kids who are actually good at math likely have a high math SAT score, but their verbal score can vary a fair bit. I regularly see kids with 1400-1450 SATs, with perfect math scores who are Math Olympiad stars. The likely end game of this though is that schools REALLY start teaching to the test. Why even offer AP tests if they don't help admission? Why even teach biology or physics at all? Simply teach SAT math, reading comprehension (which is comprehension of the worst kind) and what the SAT calls writing. So no more calculus or statistics. Even most of what is taught in algebra II is thrown out the window. Today the 95%ile of SATs is around 1440. It would probably move up to around 1550, once schools teach to that test year around for four years. And any actually advanced undergrad courses are tossed because they can't get enough students to fill them. And other countries will realize that the US left a huge gap -- the ability get students who strong in like areas and train them. They'll target the best math students, the best programmers, the best artists, etc... Interestingly, the best meritocracy we have in society is sports. And in sports they recruit holistically -- that is they don't exclusively use HS stats (these are generally worthless) or combine numbers (these have some value, but limited). They use scouting services. And the very best athletes tend to congregate in programs that will develop them the best. Many hold up sports as a great example of meritocracy, yet it actually doesn't rely solely on measurables (in fact they are moving further and further from it). What sports has though is a good objective function. What is the objective function of school? Answering that question will greatly help determine what the best path forward is.
- 0x445442 4y ago
  This is genius and would probably accurately capture the overall demographic makeup of that group of 1500 SAT applicants.
- hotpotamus 4y ago
  That's my suggestion - who wants a school full of unlucky kids?
  - ctoth 4y ago
    Okay, great Ringworld reference.
    - hotpotamus 4y ago
      I'm not sure if you mean the book or the game (I've only read the book) but I think it might go back further than that. But maybe I got it from there.

CharlieDigital 4y ago

It's not that it's not possible but rather we've simply been so lazy that we don't have the right heuristics. No; I don't have the answer. I'm not an economist nor an admissions expert. But I've qualified and hired software engineers over the years and my process never focuses on a score or outcome of an assessment.