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By now, I think you can safely drop the assumption that we are dealing with a rational actor. Also those around Putin have been put into place for decades. He's

By now, I think you can safely drop the assumption that we are dealing with a rational actor. Also those around Putin have been put into place for decades. He's been scheming at least since his KGB job in East Germany (GDR) where he is still revered to this day. He is effectively ruining the lives of every Russian at this point including the oligarchs. If the Russian elites cared about Russia at all or even just their own lives, they would move to remove Putin by any means necessary as soon as possible. The fact that he still holds power after this legendary series of fuck ups and his oligarch killing spree tells you one thing: we cannot rely on rationality and people clinging to their families, lives or wealth. It's emotional chaos fueled by propaganda.

pmoriarty 4y ago
Putin is just one man, and he can do nothing without supporters. It is the Putin regime which is in power, and were Putin alone to fall from power it's not clear that anything substantial would change. During WW2, had Hitler's assassins been successful and Himmler had taken over, it's not likely that the Holocaust would have been prevented and Germany might have been even more effective during the war without the bumbling Hitler in charge. Meaningful change will only come from replacing the entire regime, not just one man. But the Putin regime has been very successful in completely neutering all of its opposition, so it's not clear where such regime change will come from. Maybe from the general public, but they have been cowed in to submission or bought in to the propaganda. One thing that could throw a monkey wrench in to the works is the use of nuke or even just Putin's order to use nukes. Then he may well be assassinated or his regime toppled by people who don't want the world to end. Putin is likely very aware of this threat to his rule, so it's unlikely he will use nukes deliberately. But there is still too high a chance that nukes will be used accidentally, as the world has repeatedly come close to accidental nuclear war even in peacetime. During outright war and in a time of such heightened paranoia, the odds of accidental nuclear war are much higher.

pmoriarty 4y ago

Putin is just one man, and he can do nothing without supporters. It is the Putin regime which is in power, and were Putin alone to fall from power it's not clear that anything substantial would change. During WW2, had Hitler's assassins been successful and Himmler had taken over, it's not likely that the Holocaust would have been prevented and Germany might have been even more effective during the war without the bumbling Hitler in charge. Meaningful change will only come from replacing the entire regime, not just one man. But the Putin regime has been very successful in completely neutering all of its opposition, so it's not clear where such regime change will come from. Maybe from the general public, but they have been cowed in to submission or bought in to the propaganda. One thing that could throw a monkey wrench in to the works is the use of nuke or even just Putin's order to use nukes. Then he may well be assassinated or his regime toppled by people who don't want the world to end. Putin is likely very aware of this threat to his rule, so it's unlikely he will use nukes deliberately. But there is still too high a chance that nukes will be used accidentally, as the world has repeatedly come close to accidental nuclear war even in peacetime. During outright war and in a time of such heightened paranoia, the odds of accidental nuclear war are much higher.