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I'm 0:47 into the video, and it's already stretched past credulity to the breaking point. We've seen how completely the kleptocracy has crippled the Russian mil

I'm 0:47 into the video, and it's already stretched past credulity to the breaking point. We've seen how completely the kleptocracy has crippled the Russian military. Does anyone seriously think that a single weapon would be used, given the extremely low probability of making in through a number of steps including: * Someone, a person with family and friends, has to follow orders that could kill them and everyone they know, to advance a war they possibly don't support. * They have to target the right location, and not some relatively empty area to appear to be doing their job * The missile has to correctly launch * A single very anticipated launch has to avoid all interception * It has to accurately make it to its destination * All of the parts that have been in storage since the end of the cold war have to have been properly maintained, maintenance that costs the US about $10,000,000 per year each. Any small mismatch in timing, composition of the core due to nuclear decay or humidity and corrosion, and electronics all have to work within microseconds of each other. To use a single weapon with all these risks, and break a 75 year Taboo against their wartime use, is not something a rational actor would do. Furthermore, the entire US military would have positive confirmation within 90 seconds of the nuclear detonation, and begin to react according to existing well tested plans. Next, the US and NATO have a vast array of non-nuclear responses that would effectively cripple Russian ability to project force beyond its borders. The conflict in Ukraine is just the stuff we can put into the hands of those quickly trained, and NERFed enough to avoid deep strikes into Russia. Also, you have to look at the human factors of those who support Putin internally, they don't want to loose all their spoils of their efforts which are mostly situated outside of Russia.

neuronic 4y ago
By now, I think you can safely drop the assumption that we are dealing with a rational actor. Also those around Putin have been put into place for decades. He's been scheming at least since his KGB job in East Germany (GDR) where he is still revered to this day. He is effectively ruining the lives of every Russian at this point including the oligarchs. If the Russian elites cared about Russia at all or even just their own lives, they would move to remove Putin by any means necessary as soon as possible. The fact that he still holds power after this legendary series of fuck ups and his oligarch killing spree tells you one thing: we cannot rely on rationality and people clinging to their families, lives or wealth. It's emotional chaos fueled by propaganda.
- pmoriarty 4y ago
  Putin is just one man, and he can do nothing without supporters. It is the Putin regime which is in power, and were Putin alone to fall from power it's not clear that anything substantial would change. During WW2, had Hitler's assassins been successful and Himmler had taken over, it's not likely that the Holocaust would have been prevented and Germany might have been even more effective during the war without the bumbling Hitler in charge. Meaningful change will only come from replacing the entire regime, not just one man. But the Putin regime has been very successful in completely neutering all of its opposition, so it's not clear where such regime change will come from. Maybe from the general public, but they have been cowed in to submission or bought in to the propaganda. One thing that could throw a monkey wrench in to the works is the use of nuke or even just Putin's order to use nukes. Then he may well be assassinated or his regime toppled by people who don't want the world to end. Putin is likely very aware of this threat to his rule, so it's unlikely he will use nukes deliberately. But there is still too high a chance that nukes will be used accidentally, as the world has repeatedly come close to accidental nuclear war even in peacetime. During outright war and in a time of such heightened paranoia, the odds of accidental nuclear war are much higher.
Gunax 4y ago
I think we agree it's unlikely, but best to prepare for what they can do, and not what we expect then to do.
data_maan 4y ago
You seem to see a high probabilitt that Russia will do nothing. How much of your income would you like to bet on you being right?
- mikewarot 4y ago
  I was trying to highlight likely failure mechanisms that could occur if the order were given. I strongly believe that only a small percentage of their nukes would work (2-10%)[1], so a solo launch is less than likely to work. However if things to escalate, that's still 120-600 detonations if they were to the 6,000 weapons in their stockpile.[2] In which case, you wouldn't be able to collect if I was wrong [1] Guestimate -- based on no provable facts or sources [2] https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-russia-have-in-2022 https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how...
pmoriarty 4y ago
"the US and NATO have a vast array of non-nuclear responses that would effectively cripple Russian ability to project force beyond its borders" There is no way to cripple Russia's ability to project force beyond its borders as long as they have nukes.. and they've got over 5000 of them. Any attempt to do so will mean the end of the world.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

neuronic 4y ago

By now, I think you can safely drop the assumption that we are dealing with a rational actor. Also those around Putin have been put into place for decades. He's been scheming at least since his KGB job in East Germany (GDR) where he is still revered to this day. He is effectively ruining the lives of every Russian at this point including the oligarchs. If the Russian elites cared about Russia at all or even just their own lives, they would move to remove Putin by any means necessary as soon as possible. The fact that he still holds power after this legendary series of fuck ups and his oligarch killing spree tells you one thing: we cannot rely on rationality and people clinging to their families, lives or wealth. It's emotional chaos fueled by propaganda.

pmoriarty 4y ago
Putin is just one man, and he can do nothing without supporters. It is the Putin regime which is in power, and were Putin alone to fall from power it's not clear that anything substantial would change. During WW2, had Hitler's assassins been successful and Himmler had taken over, it's not likely that the Holocaust would have been prevented and Germany might have been even more effective during the war without the bumbling Hitler in charge. Meaningful change will only come from replacing the entire regime, not just one man. But the Putin regime has been very successful in completely neutering all of its opposition, so it's not clear where such regime change will come from. Maybe from the general public, but they have been cowed in to submission or bought in to the propaganda. One thing that could throw a monkey wrench in to the works is the use of nuke or even just Putin's order to use nukes. Then he may well be assassinated or his regime toppled by people who don't want the world to end. Putin is likely very aware of this threat to his rule, so it's unlikely he will use nukes deliberately. But there is still too high a chance that nukes will be used accidentally, as the world has repeatedly come close to accidental nuclear war even in peacetime. During outright war and in a time of such heightened paranoia, the odds of accidental nuclear war are much higher.

Gunax 4y ago

I think we agree it's unlikely, but best to prepare for what they can do, and not what we expect then to do.

data_maan 4y ago

You seem to see a high probabilitt that Russia will do nothing. How much of your income would you like to bet on you being right?

mikewarot 4y ago
I was trying to highlight likely failure mechanisms that could occur if the order were given. I strongly believe that only a small percentage of their nukes would work (2-10%)[1], so a solo launch is less than likely to work. However if things to escalate, that's still 120-600 detonations if they were to the 6,000 weapons in their stockpile.[2] In which case, you wouldn't be able to collect if I was wrong [1] Guestimate -- based on no provable facts or sources [2] https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-russia-have-in-2022 https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how...

pmoriarty 4y ago

"the US and NATO have a vast array of non-nuclear responses that would effectively cripple Russian ability to project force beyond its borders" There is no way to cripple Russia's ability to project force beyond its borders as long as they have nukes.. and they've got over 5000 of them. Any attempt to do so will mean the end of the world.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]