While this is an interesting theory, my personal anecdotal experience doesn't really seem to support it. Some particular bands seem to have gotten more expensiv

While this is an interesting theory, my personal anecdotal experience doesn't really seem to support it. Some particular bands seem to have gotten more expensive over time (e.g., if I want to see Modest Mouse in Oakland this December, it'll run about 3.5x what I paid to see them in 2007, not including fees), but I'm still able to go see local and smaller touring bands play at smaller venues for similar prices to when I was a teenager in the mid 00s (maybe $5 more on the face value of the ticket, and probably a lot more in terms of service fees). Merch, on the other hand, is definitely much more expensive than it used to be, and I imagine that probably is reflecting the dynamic you're hypothesizing, at least to some extent.