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Kessler syndrome is not "easy" to create at 550km. The orbits decay way too fast. Whole satellites decay in 5 years or less; smaller debris decays faster due to

Kessler syndrome is not "easy" to create at 550km. The orbits decay way too fast. Whole satellites decay in 5 years or less; smaller debris decays faster due to higher surface area to mass ratio. And the orbit doesn't have to decay all the way to 0 for the debris to stop being a threat to Starlink; a few km is all it would take. I haven't seen a lot of calculations about this but my belief is that even intentionally creating Kessler syndrome at 550 km would be infeasible, and it certainly won't happen by accident.

tomatotomato37 4y ago
The point really isn't to completely shut down that orbit, just deny it for however long you strategically need. Throwing up a huge flak cloud using magnetized cheap metal tinsel on an old ICBM isn't only easy, but also has actually been done before, albeit for different reasons https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford
- modeless 4y ago
  You won't be able to cause Kessler syndrome promptly. It takes a while for the collision debris to build up, and it takes a while for individual satellites to get hit. Space is big and even huge debris clouds will take a long time to hit something. It's not going to help your invasion next month or anything like that. Very impractical as a weapon of war, even if it was feasible which it isn't.
  - simondotau 4y ago
    Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly hugely mind-bogglingly big it is. Any given orbital plane is larger than the entire surface of Earth, including the oceans. Combine that with the fact that explosions and collisions introduce randomness to the orbital plane of each piece of debris, and you’ve got a lot of hurdles to overcome in order to get to some short term low earth orbit Kessler.
godelski 4y ago
That just makes it more likely. If you think war is going to last awhile, or you have a severe disadvantage, you shut down access to space for a few years. The cost of such an attack is lower BECAUSE it resolves itself rather quickly. Though the issue is that it is substantially harder to create the Kessler Syndrome than people claim.
- modeless 4y ago
  I disagree that it is at all likely. It would take months if not years worth of launches to fill an orbital shell with debris and nobody's going to do it before starting a war. It's practically a declaration of war on its own. It won't happen at the beginning of a war because nobody starts a war with the intention of having it drag on for years. If you're winning a war you're not going to do it and if you're losing a war you're not going to have the resources or time to do it nor the ability to do the launches without getting your launch pads destroyed. Furthermore it doesn't shut down all access to space, as you can launch through the cloud to a higher orbit.
  - godelski 4y ago
    > I disagree that it is at all likely. It would take months if not years worth of launches to fill an orbital shell with debris Aren't we in agreement? >> Though the issue is that it is substantially harder to create the Kessler Syndrome than people claim.

tomatotomato37 4y ago

The point really isn't to completely shut down that orbit, just deny it for however long you strategically need. Throwing up a huge flak cloud using magnetized cheap metal tinsel on an old ICBM isn't only easy, but also has actually been done before, albeit for different reasons https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford

modeless 4y ago
You won't be able to cause Kessler syndrome promptly. It takes a while for the collision debris to build up, and it takes a while for individual satellites to get hit. Space is big and even huge debris clouds will take a long time to hit something. It's not going to help your invasion next month or anything like that. Very impractical as a weapon of war, even if it was feasible which it isn't.
- simondotau 4y ago
  Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly hugely mind-bogglingly big it is. Any given orbital plane is larger than the entire surface of Earth, including the oceans. Combine that with the fact that explosions and collisions introduce randomness to the orbital plane of each piece of debris, and you’ve got a lot of hurdles to overcome in order to get to some short term low earth orbit Kessler.

godelski 4y ago

That just makes it more likely. If you think war is going to last awhile, or you have a severe disadvantage, you shut down access to space for a few years. The cost of such an attack is lower BECAUSE it resolves itself rather quickly. Though the issue is that it is substantially harder to create the Kessler Syndrome than people claim.

modeless 4y ago
I disagree that it is at all likely. It would take months if not years worth of launches to fill an orbital shell with debris and nobody's going to do it before starting a war. It's practically a declaration of war on its own. It won't happen at the beginning of a war because nobody starts a war with the intention of having it drag on for years. If you're winning a war you're not going to do it and if you're losing a war you're not going to have the resources or time to do it nor the ability to do the launches without getting your launch pads destroyed. Furthermore it doesn't shut down all access to space, as you can launch through the cloud to a higher orbit.
- godelski 4y ago
  > I disagree that it is at all likely. It would take months if not years worth of launches to fill an orbital shell with debris Aren't we in agreement? >> Though the issue is that it is substantially harder to create the Kessler Syndrome than people claim.