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Traditional institutions, like home ownership, marriage, and religion, are fading in their appeal. In the case of home ownership, the benefits depend quite a l
by z9znz 4y ago
Traditional institutions, like home ownership, marriage, and religion, are fading in their appeal.
In the case of home ownership, the benefits depend quite a lot on the number of years the property will be owned. I'm not sure what the numbers are now, but when I bought and later sold my house, I determined that 6-7 years was the minimum duration that made home ownership better than just renting.
People change jobs more frequently now than in the past, and consequently they tend to move around more often. That makes investing in a home more risky, as it's really unclear if one will still want to be in that home/location in 5 years. Renting, by comparison, is less risky. It may be less economical over the long run, but not if you would find yourself moving every small few years.
Also, the remote work thing is not going to decrease; if anything, it will increase, reducing location pressure (and consequently reducing the value (or rate of increase in value) of homes in certain areas). That implies even more risk for homeowners in those areas, as they cannot rely on ever-increasing values.
- jeffbee 4y ago> People change jobs more frequently now than in the past Pretty sure that’s wrong. Tenure in job is near an all time high in America. Boomers were the job hoppers.
- rippercushions 4y agoDepends on the industry. For many people in IT, changing jobs every few years is pretty standard, as is relocating if a good enough opportunity pops up.
- xigency 4y agoDo you have a source for this? Anecdotally, most of my older relatives spent 20+ years working at the same place. Meanwhile I’ve had 4 different employers in the last decade and don’t know many young folks in tech who have stayed with a company for 5+ years. (Why would you if you can only move up in position or salary by job hopping?)
- jeffbee 4y agohttps://mobile.twitter.com/graykimbrough/status/1500190429668642823 https://mobile.twitter.com/graykimbrough/status/150019042966...
- xigency 4y agoThanks. Goes to show the plural of anecdote is not data.
- randomdata 4y agoIn my anecdotal social circle, which skews older millennial with no tech representation outside of myself, I only know of one person who has jumped around to several jobs. A small handful have changed jobs once. The vast majority are where they started, 15+ years in now. The boomers lived through 11% unemployment. It may not have been job hopping by choice.
- z9znz 4y agoAm I reading you right? You are saying that the vast majority of people in your social circle have been in the same job for 15+ years, and yet they are under age 50? That would be astonishing, unless you are in some really unique industry. Perhaps if it's one of the big consulting firms, maybe. They start right out of university and then follow a career track which can easily go 15 years to partner level. And for those willing and able to live that life, I imagine they don't change jobs as often as others.
- randomdata 4y ago
- shagie 4y agohttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/tenure.t01.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/tenure.t01.htm and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf The numbers go down as the year goes. Additionally, the median length of the tenure goes up with age. For men... .... 2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022 25-34 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 35-44 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 45-54 8.5 8.2 8.4 8.1 8.2 7.5 55-64 10.7 10.7 10.2 10.2 10.0 10.0 From the pdf, if we go to Computer and mathematical occupations (which software developers are classified under) .... 2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022 4.8 5.0 4.4 4.3 3.9 4.2 Table 2 pdf will also be of interest - Table 2. Percent of employed wage and salary workers 25 years and over who had 10 years or more of tenure with their current employer by age and sex, selected years, 2012-2022
- jeffbee 4y agoThose are short-term stats though. Go back 50 years in IPUMS for context. I don't dispute that the recent trend is as you state.
- z9znz 4y agoWhat the numbers were 50 years ago is of little practical meaning in this context. The recent trend is exactly what we're talking about. Not only does the recent trend show tenures declining, but it also shows home ownership declining since the peak in 2004. So more job turnover and less home ownership does mean more likelihood of moving, whether to find new jobs or to work remotely.
- shagie 4y agoAdding in the tenure report form 40 years ago: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/09/rpt3full.pdf https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/09/rpt3full.pdf .... 1982 : 2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022 25-34 2.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 35-44 4.9 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 45-54 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.4 8.1 8.2 7.5 55-64 11.9 10.7 10.7 10.2 10.2 10.0 10.0 Though the report that you're most likely interested in is https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1984/10/art2full.pdf https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1984/10/art2full.pdf > In 1983, more than 1 worker in 3 aged 35 to 44 had been with the same employer 10 years or longer and almost the same ratio of workers 45 and older had worked for the same employer 20 years or more > Among the principal findings: > One worker in 6 has been with his or her employer for at least 15 years. Among workers aged 45 and over, nearly one-third have been with their current employer for 20 years or more. Comparing that with the current one https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf table 3 .... <12m : 13-23m : 2y : 3-4y : 5-9y : 10-14y : 15-19y : 20+y 20+ 22.3% : 5.6% : 5.1% : 18.4% : 20.6% : 10.1% : 6.7% : 11.2% 35-44 19.2% : 5.3% : 4.7% : 18.8% : 25.4% : 14.0% : 9.2% : 3.4% 45-54 12.9% : 4.0% : 3.9% : 15.4% : 21.2% : 13.2% : 10.4% : 18.9% 55-64 11.6% : 2.5% : 2.5% : 12.6% : 19.3% : 12.6% : 10.1% : 28.9% (the 20+ row is everyone aged 20 and older) The corresponding for 2022 would be: > 2022, about 1 worker in 4 aged 35 to 44 has been with the same employer or longer, which is almost the same ratio as workers 45 to 54 working for the same employer for 20 years or more. > Amount the principal findings: > One worker in 18 has been with his or her employer for at least 15 years. Amount workers aged 45 to 45, less than one fifth has been with their current employer 20 years or more. This climbs to slightly more than one quarter for workers aged 55 or older.
- danielvf 4y agoThe total number of moves made in the US has been declining over the last several years, even as the US population is increasing. https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/moving-stats/ https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/moving-stats/
- godtoldmetodoit 4y agoMy guess is that moves will go down even further over the coming years. Anyone who bought or refinanced a home over the past decade would need a hell of a good reason to sell and buy a new home in a new location with interest rates going up like they have.
- ericmay 4y agoI think that’s a good thing. Hard to build communities of anonymous transient people. Who cares if there is a park and cafe or you get to know your local representatives if you move every few years.
- MisterBastahrd 4y agoHome ownership is fading in appeal due to price, not because of social changes. Most people do not want to live in a concrete cave stacked side by side and underneath other concrete caves. They want space to go outside and enjoy themselves and do what they want to do. People change jobs more frequently but they usually stay in the same metropolitan area and if a job is worth enough to get them to move, the job usually comes with relocation benefits.
- dml2135 4y agoYou seem to be equating "home ownership" with single-family detached homes, but that is not what the term means -- you can own an apartment flat as well, it's called a condo.
- MisterBastahrd 4y agoMaybe, but few people truly want to live in a condo. They're what you settle for unless you're old enough that you can't maintain a yard or regularly partake in outdoor activities anymore.
- pixl97 4y agoBeing that in the SFH neighborhood I live in there are a ton of homes that are serviced by lawn care companies, I don't think lawn maintenance is a determining factor.
- MisterBastahrd 4y agoIt's about utilization of the space. If I want to smoke a brisket, I'm not getting far on an apartment balcony, and a pool party isn't the same when you just invite people to the shared one in the complex.
- chipotle_coyote 4y agoWhile I don't doubt the majority of homeowners prefer single-family homes, I've known a fair number of condo owners (and renters) over the years, and none of them were "settling" because they were too old for yard work. Some made that choice for financial reasons -- condos often cost less than roughly comparable SFHs even when you figure HOA fees in -- but many made that choice because they prefer urban or oceanside living. My former roommate of many years now lives in a loft condo in a dense urban area, and it is more or less his dream house. Currently I live in a SFH on over an acre of land in rural Florida, and while there are some lovely things about it, I would trade it for a condo in certain cities in a heartbeat. Not everyone places a high priority on being able to smoke a brisket in the back yard. Yes, this is all anecdotal, but I can't help suspect that you're doing a bit of "this is how I feel, so surely it's the way everyone else feels". :)
- hotpotamus 4y agoIt sounds like true freedom is the life of an itinerant drifter - no ownership of anything and no social connections to tie you down; a bit ironic it would seem to me.
- lazide 4y agothe hobo lifestyle has definitely been making a comeback!
- nathanaldensr 4y agoIt may be, from a purely self-centered perspective (and I can appreciate that). However, hobos, drifters, and homeless generally force large externalities on the rest of us--i.e., it's not pure libertarianism.
- bwestergard 4y ago"Traditional institutions, like home ownership, marriage, and religion, are fading in their appeal." I think you might be reversing cause and effect. Millennials are less wealthy, and thus less able to purchase homes, get married. Traditional religious affiliation is declining, but it's debatable to what degree religious impulses have declined and to what degree they have simply found new forms of expression (e.g. into astrology, QAnon-style "theories", "General Artificial Intelligence", spiritualized ecology, etc.) "People change jobs more frequently now than in the past, and consequently they tend to move around more often." This is a false statement. The decline of residential mobility and its impact on labor market dynamism is a hot topic in U.S. economics research today. https://www.npr.org/2017/08/04/541675186/fewer-americans-are-moving-to-pursue-better-jobs-across-the-nation https://www.npr.org/2017/08/04/541675186/fewer-americans-are... https://workofthefuture.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2020-Research-Brief-Autor.pdf https://workofthefuture.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2...
- randomdata 4y ago> e.g. into astrology, QAnon-style "theories", "General Artificial Intelligence", spiritualized ecology, etc. Most of all: College. Not only does it share a lot of the practical value that the church historically provided (community, fellowship, teaching), but notably it carries a similar fear-based belief system whereby there is a lot of social pressure to attend and it is accepted that if you don't attend you will face the scorn of the economic deity; the modern day version of "you will go to hell". The specific "higher power" may have changed with time, but the human behaviour certainly hasn't.