4 ms·

Bring it on. As a first time buyer, I don't even care about prices going down as much as I care about being able to actually buy a home that I want without feel

Bring it on. As a first time buyer, I don't even care about prices going down as much as I care about being able to actually buy a home that I want without feeling like it's a blind gamble. I want to be able to look at a listing, talk to the realtor, have a scheduled showing, and put in an offer at list price with inspection/appraisal contingencies. You know, like how normal life was forever until the last 5 years.

electrondood 4y ago
5 years? The norm here has been 10-20 bids on a house, with an all-cash offer from foreign investors behind a faceless LLC, for like 30 years. Where are you living?
- ramesh31 4y ago
  >5 years? The norm here has been 10-20 bids on a house, with an all-cash offer from foreign investors behind a faceless LLC, for like 30 years. Where are you living? In the major metros, sure. But I'm talking about 3rd tier city suburbs.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Every area is different, some places the norm is to price the house low and then take the highest offer, other places price the house high and then take the highest offer (that will be below the asking price). Arguably if the house doesn't sit on the market for about 3 months it was priced too low, and if it sits longer it was priced too high (this can also depend on if it is empty or inhabited at the time).
hedora 4y ago
What you are describing has more to do with listing agent strategies than absolute prices. Some agents price a bit above market, and hope for one offer. Some price below in hopes of creating bidding wars, and/or getting people to waive inspections/contingencies on a questionable house.
- Cyph0n 4y ago
  For the last 2 years in particular, strategy had nothing to do with it. In most “active” markets, houses went pending almost immediately, regardless of price. It was fueled by low rates, easy access to capital, and FOMO.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    Nonsense, list a house 2x market value and it wont go pending immediately. List it at 1/2X and it will. It makes perfect sense in a sellers market from a an agents perspective. Agents maximize number of deals, making hay while the sun shines. Sellers maximize competition, and get to do so because it is/was a sellers market. Of course low rates are why it was a sellers market, but this is the winning strategy in a that market.
    - Cyph0n 4y ago
      Correction: any price within range of comps. I assumed that was implied when talking about housing, but okay. The point I was making is that houses sold quickly regardless of how low they were priced relative to comps. It was/is a bubble through and through.
      - s1artibartfast 4y ago
        >The point I was making is that houses sold quickly regardless of how low they were priced relative to comps. And my point is that speed is a feature of any sellers market, bubble or not. I think it is/was a sellers market, but don't think it is a bubble that will pop. It might go down some or sideways, but it wont be disastrous. For those that sold out of stock to buy a house, their homes could loose 30% and they would still have come out ahead.
williamcotton 4y ago
As a current homeowner in a state that only tempers rising property taxes I would very much like the assessed value of my house to drop as I like my neighborhood! Of course if it doesn't and I get priced out then I get to pay off my mortgage and find a new place to live with a nice little cash bonus! I also like the idea of deferred property taxes... that is, you can choose to limit the rate increases and pay the difference at the time of sale. This way you can stay in your neighborhood but you don't get a giant cash bonus for your role in creating inefficiencies in the housing market.
- enragedcacti 4y ago
  wouldn't this basically be a state operated reverse mortgage? A financial instrument like that available under 62 would be interesting because as it is now it really feels like a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation. Any policy change that lowers prices gets a bunch of people upset about losing value and anything that raises them gets a bunch of people upset about having to pay taxes commensurate with the value they gained. That said I could see how this would create a mini prop 13 situation where people don't want to move because they would have to eat a big jump in property taxes.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    Many states have property tax solutions for the elderly or otherwise unable to pay, and even the ones that don't often have payment options available. Here's one random one: https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/misc/lfb/informational_papers/january_2009/0026_property_tax_deferral_loan_program_informational_paper_26.pdf https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/misc/lfb/informational_pape... And many jurisdictions it doesn't matter what your house appraises at, because when yours goes up everyone else's goes up, and they allocate the property tax based on the needs (budget) of the community. So if your house was 1% of the total value in the town, it will remain 1% even if it tripled in price.

electrondood 4y ago

5 years? The norm here has been 10-20 bids on a house, with an all-cash offer from foreign investors behind a faceless LLC, for like 30 years. Where are you living?

ramesh31 4y ago
>5 years? The norm here has been 10-20 bids on a house, with an all-cash offer from foreign investors behind a faceless LLC, for like 30 years. Where are you living? In the major metros, sure. But I'm talking about 3rd tier city suburbs.
bombcar 4y ago
Every area is different, some places the norm is to price the house low and then take the highest offer, other places price the house high and then take the highest offer (that will be below the asking price). Arguably if the house doesn't sit on the market for about 3 months it was priced too low, and if it sits longer it was priced too high (this can also depend on if it is empty or inhabited at the time).

hedora 4y ago

What you are describing has more to do with listing agent strategies than absolute prices. Some agents price a bit above market, and hope for one offer. Some price below in hopes of creating bidding wars, and/or getting people to waive inspections/contingencies on a questionable house.

Cyph0n 4y ago
For the last 2 years in particular, strategy had nothing to do with it. In most “active” markets, houses went pending almost immediately, regardless of price. It was fueled by low rates, easy access to capital, and FOMO.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  Nonsense, list a house 2x market value and it wont go pending immediately. List it at 1/2X and it will. It makes perfect sense in a sellers market from a an agents perspective. Agents maximize number of deals, making hay while the sun shines. Sellers maximize competition, and get to do so because it is/was a sellers market. Of course low rates are why it was a sellers market, but this is the winning strategy in a that market.
  - Cyph0n 4y ago
    Correction: any price within range of comps. I assumed that was implied when talking about housing, but okay. The point I was making is that houses sold quickly regardless of how low they were priced relative to comps. It was/is a bubble through and through.
    - s1artibartfast 4y ago
      >The point I was making is that houses sold quickly regardless of how low they were priced relative to comps. And my point is that speed is a feature of any sellers market, bubble or not. I think it is/was a sellers market, but don't think it is a bubble that will pop. It might go down some or sideways, but it wont be disastrous. For those that sold out of stock to buy a house, their homes could loose 30% and they would still have come out ahead.

williamcotton 4y ago

As a current homeowner in a state that only tempers rising property taxes I would very much like the assessed value of my house to drop as I like my neighborhood! Of course if it doesn't and I get priced out then I get to pay off my mortgage and find a new place to live with a nice little cash bonus! I also like the idea of deferred property taxes... that is, you can choose to limit the rate increases and pay the difference at the time of sale. This way you can stay in your neighborhood but you don't get a giant cash bonus for your role in creating inefficiencies in the housing market.

enragedcacti 4y ago
wouldn't this basically be a state operated reverse mortgage? A financial instrument like that available under 62 would be interesting because as it is now it really feels like a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation. Any policy change that lowers prices gets a bunch of people upset about losing value and anything that raises them gets a bunch of people upset about having to pay taxes commensurate with the value they gained. That said I could see how this would create a mini prop 13 situation where people don't want to move because they would have to eat a big jump in property taxes.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Many states have property tax solutions for the elderly or otherwise unable to pay, and even the ones that don't often have payment options available. Here's one random one: https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/misc/lfb/informational_papers/january_2009/0026_property_tax_deferral_loan_program_informational_paper_26.pdf https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/misc/lfb/informational_pape... And many jurisdictions it doesn't matter what your house appraises at, because when yours goes up everyone else's goes up, and they allocate the property tax based on the needs (budget) of the community. So if your house was 1% of the total value in the town, it will remain 1% even if it tripled in price.