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My theory is that the US knew the sorry state of the Russian army and tried to start the war by having NATO flirt with Ukraine. The goal was to get the Russians

My theory is that the US knew the sorry state of the Russian army and tried to start the war by having NATO flirt with Ukraine. The goal was to get the Russians involved in a war that, when it was lost, could result in regime change in Russia.

actionfromafar 4y ago
Someone might have thought so, but I think your theory needs some serious qualification - a lot of people were credibly surprised that it went so badly for Russia. The version I heard was that the US had extremely good (open source and not) intel on what the higher Russian military echelons thought about their chances - and they thought it would go well! So the mistake the US might have made is to buy the self-confidence of the higher brass instead of looking at the reality at the ground. (Bad training, no combined arms, bad equipment, low morale etc.)
pessimizer 4y ago
> tried to start the war by having NATO flirt with Ukraine. They've been trying to do this for over a decade. The reason the war started now is because this was the peak moment for Russian advantage - the Ukraine Maidan coup had been frozen for years in the east and the US was paying attention to other things, but the actor that the Ukrainian population had desperately and cynically elected for relief from the tug-of-war between the US and Russia (parallels with Trump) was a lightweight owned by an oligarch who would give the US whatever they wanted. That meant that assaults on the East would escalate, Ukraine would join NATO, and Russia would have anti-Russian troops stationed on its borders. Russia's military and economy are horrible though (although not as bad as the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine.) If they were going to win they would have to win quickly before the US was able to ramp up again. They failed this, so now they're going to have to use nukes on Ukraine.
- rendall 4y ago
  > they're going to have to use nukes on Ukraine They don't have to use nukes on Ukraine. In fact, if they do, the resultant shit-storm will make the current sanctions seem like halcyon days of leisure and abundance. If they use nukes, it will be because they want to What happened in your life that has led you to be vociferously defending this genocidal, terrorist state?

actionfromafar 4y ago

Someone might have thought so, but I think your theory needs some serious qualification - a lot of people were credibly surprised that it went so badly for Russia. The version I heard was that the US had extremely good (open source and not) intel on what the higher Russian military echelons thought about their chances - and they thought it would go well! So the mistake the US might have made is to buy the self-confidence of the higher brass instead of looking at the reality at the ground. (Bad training, no combined arms, bad equipment, low morale etc.)

pessimizer 4y ago

> tried to start the war by having NATO flirt with Ukraine. They've been trying to do this for over a decade. The reason the war started now is because this was the peak moment for Russian advantage - the Ukraine Maidan coup had been frozen for years in the east and the US was paying attention to other things, but the actor that the Ukrainian population had desperately and cynically elected for relief from the tug-of-war between the US and Russia (parallels with Trump) was a lightweight owned by an oligarch who would give the US whatever they wanted. That meant that assaults on the East would escalate, Ukraine would join NATO, and Russia would have anti-Russian troops stationed on its borders. Russia's military and economy are horrible though (although not as bad as the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine.) If they were going to win they would have to win quickly before the US was able to ramp up again. They failed this, so now they're going to have to use nukes on Ukraine.

rendall 4y ago
> they're going to have to use nukes on Ukraine They don't have to use nukes on Ukraine. In fact, if they do, the resultant shit-storm will make the current sanctions seem like halcyon days of leisure and abundance. If they use nukes, it will be because they want to What happened in your life that has led you to be vociferously defending this genocidal, terrorist state?