3 ms·
> Assume for a moment Hans did not cheat (aside from the times he admitted to cheating). In the scenario where he did not cheat - how amazing is his performance
by Maursault 4y ago
> Assume for a moment Hans did not cheat (aside from the times he admitted to cheating). In the scenario where he did not cheat - how amazing is his performance? ...In the scenario where he did not cheat, is he really on a Bobby Fischer-like ascendance?
I think so, yes, and even considerably moreso.
According to Yosha Iglesias[1] and her anonymous mathematician friend, for 5 tournaments in a row starting at the Philadelphia Open in July 2021 Hans Niemann played at an average engine correlation of 73%, beating Bobby Fischer's average engine correlation of 72% during his 20 game winning streak between 2 Dec. 1970 and 30 Sept. 1971. Fischer's peak rating was 2895 in October 1971 at 27yo. Niemann's peak rating was 2699 this month, October 2022, at 19yo.
Also according to Yosha, in three years Niemann has played 10 games with a perfect 100% engine correlation and 23 games with engine correlations above 90%.[2]
My own chess layman analysis of the experts' analyses is that the best chess players in the world right now generally play games with engine correlations ranging game to game from the mid-60%s to the high-80%s, with much rarer games in the 90%s, and games 100% engine correlated being a once or twice in a lifetime event. Magnus Carlson at his best has an engine correlation of 70%.[1]
Unless he cheated, it is quite clear to me, at least, that Hans Niemann is the singular greatest chess player of all time.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ&t=15m11s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ&t=15m11s
[2] https://twitter.com/iglesiasyosha/status/1574374153997647874 https://twitter.com/iglesiasyosha/status/1574374153997647874
- kennyloginz 4y agoYosha has admitted that their analysis was flawed… https://twitter.com/IglesiasYosha/status/1574308784566067201?s=20&t=N0hannEVwjAmnMNdBFkF0Q https://twitter.com/IglesiasYosha/status/1574308784566067201...
- Maursault 4y agoOnly the ROI of the probability of 6 consecutive tournaments was miscalculated, not the engine correlation percentages. Fischer at his best during 20 consecutive winning games at his peak performance had an average engine correlation of 72%, while Niemann's average was 73% across 5 tournaments. I just saw this: Magnus Carlson's average engine correlation across 5 tournaments in 2021 (roughly the same period as Niemann's 5) was 66.48%[1]. Niemann conspicuously appears to be a superior chess player at 19yo than both Bobby Fischer at 27yo during the peak performance of his career and a much better chess player than Magnus Carson at 30yo while he was and is reigning World Champion. [1] https://twitter.com/ty_johannes/status/1574780445744668673?t=tZN0eoTJpueE-bAr-qsVoQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/ty_johannes/status/1574780445744668673?t...