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>Some chipmakers don't appear to have got the memo and are pushing ahead. Micron, for example, recently announced a $100 billion chip fab destined for New York

>Some chipmakers don't appear to have got the memo and are pushing ahead. Micron, for example, recently announced a $100 billion chip fab destined for New York state. Yeah, and Intel announced similar for Ohio...and how is that going. A lot different to announce an eventual fab than to actually invest that money next year (which is the TSMC portion of the story).

bonestamp2 4y ago
The capacity might not be needed, but the political stability may be (or not).
- juve1996 4y ago
  People have short term vision because everything gets reduced to quarterly results now. Changes take time. Investing now makes sense - not for the next quarter or year - but for the next decade. Is anyone really going to bet the chip market won't be larger in 10 years?
  - oytis 4y ago
    Depending on how technology progresses the market for chips manufactured with today's processes might or might not be larger.
    - juve1996 4y ago
      Is that true now? My understanding is the chip shortage isn't just in high end new chips, but also older chips for use in things like cars and other embedded applications.
  - bonestamp2 4y ago
    > everything gets reduced to quarterly results now Yes, it's interesting how we're so short sighted in the west compared to some parts of Asia and Europe. For example: my friend works for a Japanese company and their roadmap and outlook for success of a new product is 10 years. I was listening to a podcast and they were interviewing a guy from luxury conglomerate LVMH and they think about how today's products will affect their brand in 100 years. That's an extreme example of course, but it's still an interesting perspective to consider.
willis936 4y ago
My mom excitedly told me about a large fab coming to NY recently and I told her it likely was not going to be built then pointed to examples where big tech companies have fucked over communities in the recent past.
- j_walter 4y ago
  I don't believe it's their intention to fuck the community over, but more to try to secure some of that CHIPS money. Intel, TSMC, TI and Samsung actively have fabs being built, but they are slowing them down right now. TSMC is the only one actively saying they are cutting CapEx next year while Intel has actively canceled orders for some of their new fab tools but have not admitted such.
flyinglizard 4y ago
I think these domestic fans are heavily subsidized and will go forward anyhow. It takes years to bring an advanced fab online so the state of the market in the next 2-3 years is immaterial.

bonestamp2 4y ago

The capacity might not be needed, but the political stability may be (or not).

juve1996 4y ago
People have short term vision because everything gets reduced to quarterly results now. Changes take time. Investing now makes sense - not for the next quarter or year - but for the next decade. Is anyone really going to bet the chip market won't be larger in 10 years?
- oytis 4y ago
  Depending on how technology progresses the market for chips manufactured with today's processes might or might not be larger.
  - juve1996 4y ago
    Is that true now? My understanding is the chip shortage isn't just in high end new chips, but also older chips for use in things like cars and other embedded applications.
- bonestamp2 4y ago
  > everything gets reduced to quarterly results now Yes, it's interesting how we're so short sighted in the west compared to some parts of Asia and Europe. For example: my friend works for a Japanese company and their roadmap and outlook for success of a new product is 10 years. I was listening to a podcast and they were interviewing a guy from luxury conglomerate LVMH and they think about how today's products will affect their brand in 100 years. That's an extreme example of course, but it's still an interesting perspective to consider.

willis936 4y ago

My mom excitedly told me about a large fab coming to NY recently and I told her it likely was not going to be built then pointed to examples where big tech companies have fucked over communities in the recent past.

j_walter 4y ago
I don't believe it's their intention to fuck the community over, but more to try to secure some of that CHIPS money. Intel, TSMC, TI and Samsung actively have fabs being built, but they are slowing them down right now. TSMC is the only one actively saying they are cutting CapEx next year while Intel has actively canceled orders for some of their new fab tools but have not admitted such.

flyinglizard 4y ago

I think these domestic fans are heavily subsidized and will go forward anyhow. It takes years to bring an advanced fab online so the state of the market in the next 2-3 years is immaterial.