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It's the generic congressional vote, which is simply the percent of people polled who prefer either party. It's analogous to the popular vote for President, not

It's the generic congressional vote, which is simply the percent of people polled who prefer either party. It's analogous to the popular vote for President, not the percent of seats either party is predicted to win.

Retric 4y ago
Many races only have candidates from a single party. Which discards votes in any such count not just from the election tallies but also likely voters.
- leereeves 4y ago
  Pollsters know that, so they phrase questions to avoid the issue, like: "Would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress, or doesn’t this matter to you?" (from Monmouth)
  - Retric 4y ago
    That doesn’t help when you ask if someone is a likely voter and they say no because of who’s running. Granted it doesn’t say it’s asking likely voters, but somehow they got 95% of responses say they are registered voters when only 50% of Americans are registered voters. (Page 8) https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_102022.pdf/ https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmout...
    - leereeves 4y ago
      > somehow they got 95% of responses say they are registered voters That's 95% of people who are old enough to respond to the poll (under 18 are excluded without reporting) and don't hang up. I don't find it strange that people who aren't registered to vote hang up without responding to the poll.
      - Retric 4y ago
        There are many possibilities, but the point stands that it’s clearly a very biased sample. Almost 80% of people between 65-74 are registered voters but that’s still a long way from 95%.
jedberg 4y ago
All the surveys are only of "likely voters". People who live in heavily gerrymandered districts tend to say "I'm not planning on voting". Also a lot of younger people who generally support Democrats aren't even included in the surveys.
- pessimizer 4y ago
  If this were generally true, you'd see more polls erring in favor of Republicans. I can't recall any mainstream polling misses that have; do you have any references?

Retric 4y ago

Many races only have candidates from a single party. Which discards votes in any such count not just from the election tallies but also likely voters.

leereeves 4y ago
Pollsters know that, so they phrase questions to avoid the issue, like: "Would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress, or doesn’t this matter to you?" (from Monmouth)
- Retric 4y ago
  That doesn’t help when you ask if someone is a likely voter and they say no because of who’s running. Granted it doesn’t say it’s asking likely voters, but somehow they got 95% of responses say they are registered voters when only 50% of Americans are registered voters. (Page 8) https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_102022.pdf/ https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmout...
  - leereeves 4y ago
    > somehow they got 95% of responses say they are registered voters That's 95% of people who are old enough to respond to the poll (under 18 are excluded without reporting) and don't hang up. I don't find it strange that people who aren't registered to vote hang up without responding to the poll.
    - Retric 4y ago
      There are many possibilities, but the point stands that it’s clearly a very biased sample. Almost 80% of people between 65-74 are registered voters but that’s still a long way from 95%.

jedberg 4y ago

All the surveys are only of "likely voters". People who live in heavily gerrymandered districts tend to say "I'm not planning on voting". Also a lot of younger people who generally support Democrats aren't even included in the surveys.

pessimizer 4y ago
If this were generally true, you'd see more polls erring in favor of Republicans. I can't recall any mainstream polling misses that have; do you have any references?