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> Thing is, it does disappear approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It slows down, along with the rest of the ec
by vkou 4y ago
> Thing is, it does disappear approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing.
It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces.
My point is that in the average case, there is ~zero opportunity cost or damage to your career, because you worked at MS Azure, instead of... Somewhere else.
You cite fartapp startups that run on rainbows and free VC money, but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get, in terms of their economics and prospects.
You may be bearish on them, that's fine, I can't predict the future, but I see no reason to believe that you're going to have a better life working at literally any other random software firm, during an economic contraction. There's always a few workplaces that tend to be counter-cyclical, but they are, by definition, a minority.
... Also, many government jobs are a political football, that are only as secure as the next election. The best part is that after you worked one, and had half your compensation deferred to retirement, some politician will come along, and campaign on reneging on your pay, after you've given your thirty years of service.
- randomdata 4y ago> It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces. Tech has been the darling of late exactly because it hasn't followed the general economy. In 2008, when virtually every other industry was about to sound death knells, developers were making bank producing apps. Similar story through the pandemic, when people were locked out of work during lockdowns tech was making a killing selling them things to do with their free time. Not having a good reckoning like everyone else only makes it appear more risky as time marches forward as it is assumed its day will come. > but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get. I can't imagine Firebase, which is supposedly the fourth largest cloud provider according to a recent article here, is used for anything much beyond fart apps. As the fart apps die, where does that leave their business model? Providing tooling to the gold prospectors is a good business to be in... Until people stop prospecting for gold. Firebase is Google at the end of the day, but if that division dies, that's still significant.
- sebag1507 4y ago[I work at Firebase, but opinions are my own] I am happy to report that Firebase is actually used by companies of all sizes and types, including Fortune 1000. I appreciate the concern though :).
- DeathArrow 4y agoWhich percentage are Fortune 1000?
- randomdata 4y agoFortune 1000 and fart apps aren't mutually exclusive, to be fair. Look at how many fart apps Google themselves create and then throw away soon after[1]. It is one thing to toss anything you can come up with into the wind to see what sticks during the gold rush, but that doesn't last forever. [1] https://killedbygoogle.com https://killedbygoogle.com