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What we do know is that the market thinks the career is risky, charging a substantial risk premium. The market isn't infallible, but tends to be right more ofte

What we do know is that the market thinks the career is risky, charging a substantial risk premium. The market isn't infallible, but tends to be right more often than not. But that also means that you need not be too alarmed. Even just one year of making the aforementioned $300,000 allows you several years of not working at all before you are making less, on average, than a typical low risk job. As you've already priced in the risk, you'll be fine. And if the market is wrong then you've gained a nice reward.

samvher 4y ago
What makes you interpret it as a risk premium? My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply, and barriers existing to the supply expanding (which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build). I.e. I'd say it's a scarcity thing more than a risk thing.
- randomdata 4y ago
  > My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply That, from an employer point of view, is certainly what makes the difference between offering a high risk premium and deciding that the work isn't worth doing. > which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build All jobs value from experience. The question the worker has to ask himself is: Where am I going to allocate my time to gain experience? One can't do everything. They have to make a choice. Tech is a risky place to allocate your time, but compensates for that by offering a premium to compel you in that direction. Tech is risky because it is all about exploring unknowns. You get periods of fruit, but you are also likely to get periods of dead ends, and when those dead ends start to accumulate people start to back away. That is quite unlike, say, road maintenance where there is a strong belief that roads will be around for the lifetime of one's career. That isn't a guarantee, but it is lower risk. Tech is known to disappear. Tech has crashed many, many times before after too many dead ends. It feels to me like we're in a dead end period. When was the last time you were excited about new tech? The WFH period during the pandemic brought some small excitement in tech emergence, but it seems we're trying as hard as possible to back away from that. But who knows? This time might be different. And if that's the case you've got your risk premium as a reward for taking the risk.

samvher 4y ago

What makes you interpret it as a risk premium? My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply, and barriers existing to the supply expanding (which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build). I.e. I'd say it's a scarcity thing more than a risk thing.

randomdata 4y ago
> My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply That, from an employer point of view, is certainly what makes the difference between offering a high risk premium and deciding that the work isn't worth doing. > which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build All jobs value from experience. The question the worker has to ask himself is: Where am I going to allocate my time to gain experience? One can't do everything. They have to make a choice. Tech is a risky place to allocate your time, but compensates for that by offering a premium to compel you in that direction. Tech is risky because it is all about exploring unknowns. You get periods of fruit, but you are also likely to get periods of dead ends, and when those dead ends start to accumulate people start to back away. That is quite unlike, say, road maintenance where there is a strong belief that roads will be around for the lifetime of one's career. That isn't a guarantee, but it is lower risk. Tech is known to disappear. Tech has crashed many, many times before after too many dead ends. It feels to me like we're in a dead end period. When was the last time you were excited about new tech? The WFH period during the pandemic brought some small excitement in tech emergence, but it seems we're trying as hard as possible to back away from that. But who knows? This time might be different. And if that's the case you've got your risk premium as a reward for taking the risk.