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One plans by charging a high rate during the good times, to cushion their lifestyle during the bad times. That is why we see those $300k salaries. Given the ris

One plans by charging a high rate during the good times, to cushion their lifestyle during the bad times. That is why we see those $300k salaries. Given the risk, nobody wants to do the job for less.

vkou 4y ago
The risk of what? Having to make ends meet on a $150,000 one? You're not exactly risking your life and limb by taking a job at a cloud firm. Demand for software isn't going anywhere, and no hiring manager at any future job will give two cares as to whether or not your previous employer's revenues were inflated or not.
- randomdata 4y ago
  > You're not exactly risking your life and limb You are risking opportunity elsewhere. Let's say your options are working as a developer for a random Fart App startup or a government job sweeping floors that has been around for centuries. Which are you going to choose? If they both offer $50,000 per year, the choice is clear: The government job. It is the one that is almost certain to have more longevity. But if the Fart App startup increases their offer to $300,000, well, now it's a harder choice. The startup still isn't likely to last, but with $300,000 in your pocket you're not so concerned about it disappearing into the void on a whim. And if on the unheard of chance they do make it as a lasting company that spans centuries then you're in a really great position. > Demand for software isn't going anywhere Thing is, it does crater approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It is more entrenched now than it ever was, so there is some reason to think this time is different, but the market is pricing in the risk regardless. The market can be wrong, but the market likes to be prepared.
  - vkou 4y ago
    > Thing is, it does disappear approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces. My point is that in the average case, there is ~zero opportunity cost or damage to your career, because you worked at MS Azure, instead of... Somewhere else. You cite fartapp startups that run on rainbows and free VC money, but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get, in terms of their economics and prospects. You may be bearish on them, that's fine, I can't predict the future, but I see no reason to believe that you're going to have a better life working at literally any other random software firm, during an economic contraction. There's always a few workplaces that tend to be counter-cyclical, but they are, by definition, a minority. ... Also, many government jobs are a political football, that are only as secure as the next election. The best part is that after you worked one, and had half your compensation deferred to retirement, some politician will come along, and campaign on reneging on your pay, after you've given your thirty years of service.
    - randomdata 4y ago
      > It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces. Tech has been the darling of late exactly because it hasn't followed the general economy. In 2008, when virtually every other industry was about to sound death knells, developers were making bank producing apps. Similar story through the pandemic, when people were locked out of work during lockdowns tech was making a killing selling them things to do with their free time. Not having a good reckoning like everyone else only makes it appear more risky as time marches forward as it is assumed its day will come. > but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get. I can't imagine Firebase, which is supposedly the fourth largest cloud provider according to a recent article here, is used for anything much beyond fart apps. As the fart apps die, where does that leave their business model? Providing tooling to the gold prospectors is a good business to be in... Until people stop prospecting for gold. Firebase is Google at the end of the day, but if that division dies, that's still significant.
      - sebag1507 4y ago
        [I work at Firebase, but opinions are my own] I am happy to report that Firebase is actually used by companies of all sizes and types, including Fortune 1000. I appreciate the concern though :).
        DeathArrow 4y ago
        Which percentage are Fortune 1000?
        randomdata 4y ago
        Fortune 1000 and fart apps aren't mutually exclusive, to be fair. Look at how many fart apps Google themselves create and then throw away soon after[1]. It is one thing to toss anything you can come up with into the wind to see what sticks during the gold rush, but that doesn't last forever. [1] https://killedbygoogle.com https://killedbygoogle.com

One plans by charging a high rate during the good times, to cushion their lifestyle during the bad times. That is why we see those $300k salaries. Given the risk, nobody wants to do the job for less.

vkou 4y ago

The risk of what? Having to make ends meet on a $150,000 one? You're not exactly risking your life and limb by taking a job at a cloud firm. Demand for software isn't going anywhere, and no hiring manager at any future job will give two cares as to whether or not your previous employer's revenues were inflated or not.

randomdata 4y ago
> You're not exactly risking your life and limb You are risking opportunity elsewhere. Let's say your options are working as a developer for a random Fart App startup or a government job sweeping floors that has been around for centuries. Which are you going to choose? If they both offer $50,000 per year, the choice is clear: The government job. It is the one that is almost certain to have more longevity. But if the Fart App startup increases their offer to $300,000, well, now it's a harder choice. The startup still isn't likely to last, but with $300,000 in your pocket you're not so concerned about it disappearing into the void on a whim. And if on the unheard of chance they do make it as a lasting company that spans centuries then you're in a really great position. > Demand for software isn't going anywhere Thing is, it does crater approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It is more entrenched now than it ever was, so there is some reason to think this time is different, but the market is pricing in the risk regardless. The market can be wrong, but the market likes to be prepared.
- vkou 4y ago
  > Thing is, it does disappear approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces. My point is that in the average case, there is ~zero opportunity cost or damage to your career, because you worked at MS Azure, instead of... Somewhere else. You cite fartapp startups that run on rainbows and free VC money, but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get, in terms of their economics and prospects. You may be bearish on them, that's fine, I can't predict the future, but I see no reason to believe that you're going to have a better life working at literally any other random software firm, during an economic contraction. There's always a few workplaces that tend to be counter-cyclical, but they are, by definition, a minority. ... Also, many government jobs are a political football, that are only as secure as the next election. The best part is that after you worked one, and had half your compensation deferred to retirement, some politician will come along, and campaign on reneging on your pay, after you've given your thirty years of service.
  - randomdata 4y ago
    > It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces. Tech has been the darling of late exactly because it hasn't followed the general economy. In 2008, when virtually every other industry was about to sound death knells, developers were making bank producing apps. Similar story through the pandemic, when people were locked out of work during lockdowns tech was making a killing selling them things to do with their free time. Not having a good reckoning like everyone else only makes it appear more risky as time marches forward as it is assumed its day will come. > but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get. I can't imagine Firebase, which is supposedly the fourth largest cloud provider according to a recent article here, is used for anything much beyond fart apps. As the fart apps die, where does that leave their business model? Providing tooling to the gold prospectors is a good business to be in... Until people stop prospecting for gold. Firebase is Google at the end of the day, but if that division dies, that's still significant.
    - sebag1507 4y ago
      [I work at Firebase, but opinions are my own] I am happy to report that Firebase is actually used by companies of all sizes and types, including Fortune 1000. I appreciate the concern though :).
      - DeathArrow 4y ago
        Which percentage are Fortune 1000?
      - randomdata 4y ago
        Fortune 1000 and fart apps aren't mutually exclusive, to be fair. Look at how many fart apps Google themselves create and then throw away soon after[1]. It is one thing to toss anything you can come up with into the wind to see what sticks during the gold rush, but that doesn't last forever. [1] https://killedbygoogle.com https://killedbygoogle.com